2015 SelectLeaders Network Hiring Trends Survey Report

“Frustrated Optimism” – The Influences on Job Growth

• “Although both new construction and jobs will continue to grow in 2015, I can see companies not hiring as quickly or filling their vacancies completely. I can see increased workloads for existing employees and wages only increasing slightly.”
• “When will baby boomers in the industry retire???”
• “There will be more mergers and buy-outs of competitors in the industry.”
• “Too many companies are relying on automated resume review systems based on unrealistic expectations thus missing the needle in the haystack. The candidate who will work harder, smarter and has the transferable skill set to succeed.”
• “Continued stream-lined technology or system interfacing processes will make the job market that more challenging.Baby boomers are getting pushed out from the job market in their mid-60s. Gen X and Millennials will find it hard to find and maintain work but will also age out of the workforce in their mid-40s. We are competing against 10 year olds doing full movie productions on their cell phone…”
• “I believe the economy will remain stable the next 3 years. New housing and interest rates will dictate growth as always. The big issue is the lack of skilled workers in the construction industry! While the boomers are retiring we have failed to educate more skilled workers in this industry. We need to open more training facilities and increase wages to promote a higher level of talent to compete with other industries.”
• “Banks are not lending money. Dodd-Frank bill destroyed the industry.”
• “Still a lot of dancing around issues: Compliance and regulations create reporting requirements that hinder the ability to work smart. Sure hire people to push paper – no value add and it does not improve margins – more people to smile at in the morning and wait for the next cycle. Let me see – we had Sarbox in early 2000. Now Dodd-Frank – yeah right? Until you are allowed to fail and then be held accountable it will never change. Getting too close to the 2016 election – business will hold back if it looks like more regulation no need to risk the margin.”
• The Lenders are lending again which directly correlates with real estate growth. New congress may slow regulation growth helping lenders as well. All eyes are on interest rates in 2015.”
• ” **********ASK THE FEDERAL RESERVE ( OUR) MASTERS”
• “Land surveyors are very busy. I believe there are a lot of small and medium sized projects that will come to fruition in ’15 and ’16 leading to higher construction costs, higher material costs and entitlement bottlenecks.”
• “It’s still ‘more work for less money’ but it is improving……..maybe the improvement seems too quick though and we don’t want to see another bubble burst.”
• “Hope there are more salaried jobs in real estate than just commission.”
• “Not anticipating any more financial systems to fail, the real estate market is continuing slow and steady growth where development and new construction are concerned. This will allow for the creation of other employment opportunities in different facets of the business in customer service, management, advisory services, construction and senior leadership.”
• “Government chaos resulting in slower growth.”
• “Companies likely to continue move to more outsourcing needed skill sets rather than internalizing through staff adds.”
• “Jobs need to be created that narrow the wage gap between the lower tiers and the wealthy. That it is how real estate, both commercial, industrial, and residential with grow faster.”
• “Too busy for vacation! Very discouraging trend and erodes work-life balance.”
• “Although the economy is expanding and causing need for more real estate space (deals!), there will be fewer corporate jobs in real estate due to continued industry consolidation eliminating duplicate mid-level and senior level jobs.”
• “Our Political System, Wall Street and Banks must display more integrity before significant true progress can be made.”
• “Carefully watching any changes in interest rates.”
• “Many apartment markets are becoming fully supplied, or oversupplied, which has brokers underwriting unrealistic vacancy and apartment rent growth. Yet many developers do not seem to be holding back on constructing more developments.”
• “Due to low oil prices Mexico’s economy will suffer from inflation and less people will be able to buy properties. Mexican property values will remain the same or will decrease.”
• “The market on whole is fragile. Certain pockets are strong but could turn negative quickly. Must be cautious on every transaction.”
• “I believe the year will continue to have slow growth with consumers still slow to spend cash and use credit. While oil prices are declining, there is concern over probable increases to interest rates and the impact this will have on new construction starts, fracking in the Midwestern region and access to capital.”
• “Job opportunities in selected markets. Employees leaving will not be replaced and work will be spread out among current employees. Achieving performance goals will be more difficult in this environment.”
• “The U.S. economy wants to grow, but has been inhibited by regulatory and tax burdens. Republican control of both houses of Congress should help; at least the regulatory and tax burden will not become worse. The two markets in which I am active as a self-employed developer and investment advisor (Central Ohio; Southwest Florida) are both strengthening. Inquiries for Florida office and retail space are increasing. Land for single family development in the Columbus, Ohio area is increasingly scarce. Barring another national economic shock, 2015 should be a very good year.”
• “If growth could continue at the steady pace we’ve seen, this period of growth could run for another 10 years. However, cheap energy will lead to short memories when it comes to the excesses that were a big part of the last downfall. If we can avoid over spending, at all levels, this period of growth could outlast anything we’ve seen in almost 40 years.
• “I think in major metros jobs will continue to grow incomes are slowly edging up. I think there will be moderate net effective rent growth slowed by new deliveries. I think the big wild card to watch will be oil. This latest run, especially in places like TX, CO and North Dakota, have been heavily influenced by oil production. If slowing energy prices continues and consolidation begins to occur it will be a slower effect partially offset by higher disposable income for spending with lower oil prices. Interest rates should hold through 2016. Investment groups will start to sit on the side lines come March of 2016 while election directives shake out. Interest rates will pop up in 2017 and possible inflation as 2007 debt matures. Our Government will continue to stifle the private sector businesses.”
• I believe that the commercial real estate markets will continue to prosper in 2015. Many of the zombie managers that are unable to raise capital (especially those that raised funds during the peak year of 2007 and have now approached the first extensions on their existing funds) will be absorbed or wither away, leaving the more successful firms able to thrive.
• “Based on the information I’ve read and heard, I expect tempered growth, but growth nonetheless for several industries and job gains overall.+
• “There appear to be many job openings, but employers have more extraordinary criteria when hiring for those positions. Experience is less valued than one would expect, salaries have gone down and benefits are pushed on to employees at extremely unaffordable rates.”

2015: Growth

• “As a Realtor, it is always the case that the Real Estate Market comes back last. That time is upon us.”
• “I see more projects in the pipeline which bodes well for hiring.”
• “As unemployment continues to drop, employees will make a flight to quality employers or ones that are perceived as offering something more than a job.”
• “Having graduated from UCSD in 2006, this is the first time in my career/adult life that I have seen headlines reflecting anything remotely resembling a “good” or “strong” job market. I am very optimistic for 2015.”
• “The scales have tipped and my employer is acknowledging that doing more with less is no longer sustainable. I expect compensation to increase, promotions to become more readily available and hiring to accelerate in 2015.”
• “More growth in the economy, and more competitive capital markets.”
• “My business is affordable housing management and development. The wider community now understands the huge unmet need for more in the greater Boston area. New state initiatives for funding are being initiated as federal dollars shrink. It is a hopeful development.”
• “Cautious growth. Rising interest rates. Competitive acquisition and lending activity. Continued hiring throughout 2015.”
• “Measured improvement and cautious optimism for CRE and CREF.”
• “Having graduated from UCSD in 2006, this is the first time in my career/adult life that I have seen headlines reflecting anything remotely resembling a “good” or “strong” job market. I am very optimistic for 2015.”
• “Thankful to be employed again after spending most of 2014 looking for work.”
• “Slow and steady growth would be expected with more developers moving ahead with new development.”
• “I feel that job growth, income levels and home prices will continue to rebound, but slowly.”
• “Despite some analyst’s predictions, I expect capital markets to continue to prosper with exceptional performance in healthcare, transportation and real estate. I expect job growth to match and/or slightly exceed 2014 job growth and continued market stabilization. I believe volatility is a sign that investors are willing to take some bets as a result of an increasing level of confidence in the market.”
• “I now work for the federal government and as such the trends are different than in private industry. I began looking for permanent employment after being laid off in February of 2014. I went on several interviews but did not land a job right away. I decided to become self-employed while still passively looking for a permanent position. After I landed a temp to hire position in September of 2014 and was offered a full time permanent position in December of 2014. My company has formed an investments department. Our department is growing. Since I was started in September we have hired two more member to our team and are actively looking for two more. The reason for the increase in the number of available positions is the formation of a JV with an investment firm out of Shanghai, China. I believe the real estate industry in the US is going through a transformation due to the influx of Chinese investment in the US. I believe the slowing of the Chinese economy is enticing investment in U.S. real estate. The EB-5 immigration visa program, along with weak property rights laws in China is having a real effect on the outflow of money from the country. These two factors along with the Chinese government’s crackdown on graft and corruption has investors questioning the safety of their funds. I believe this trend still has some time until it subsides. I believe it is good for the US real estate market.”
• “Plenty of financial analysis and hiring of acquisition/development talent suggests that the real estate industry will be expanding their project portfolios in 2015 which in turn will increase hiring.”
• “Continued slow economic growth over the course of the year. Multi-Family market will begin to fall off as new supply floods the market. Home purchases should show level to moderate increases.”
• “I think that growth in my industry, which is multifamily, will continue to increase.”
• “I work in distressed assets. Several of the regions where I manage assets continue to face economic challenges that negatively impact the real estate outlook.”
• “I’m receiving lots of interest from recruiters and have noticed that there is a lot of hiring in this sector. I expect that to continue.”
• “As confidence grows, greed will start coming back, and with interest rates rising the real estate cycle will reach a new peak. The unavoidable down-slope will follow a few years later. But in 2015, everyone is buying, buying, buying.”
• “Good year for apartment growth–starting to see interest in commercial deals. “Real estate investment is expected to grow beyond previous years. One indicator is increased inquiries for available land for development within transitional neighborhoods.”
• “I am not as optimistic overall, but there are pockets that are seeing, and will continue to see, growth, such as healthcare and seniors housing.
• “I believe 2015 is going to be a positive year with extensive movement in the employment sector. It is going to a good year for the stock market with the exception of oil and gas. Oil and gas output by OPAC will need stiffer regulations to avoid massive layoffs in oil and gas industry in the United States. Home prices should continue to increase at a modest rate. The political arena will gain momentum as the Republicans infuse large amounts of capital for the 2016 Presidential election.”
• “Professionals are still doing more with less; however, I do see more hiring and back filling of positions.”
• “My expectations for the year ahead are that the economy will experience growth and new job creations will increase but only modestly. I believe that real estate/housing in particular will experience little to no growth as first time homebuyers continue to struggle with credit/underwriting requirements. Competition for mid-career professionals like myself will continue to increase as more and more complete schooling and specialized training but continue to compete for fewer mid-career higher paying jobs. Overall, I expect the New Year to bring much of the same as seen in the last two years. Job creation will likely be in the service industry where pay is low and hardly enough to keep up with inflation.”
• “Should be a good one.”
• “I think the technology sector will lead to more jobs in the United States as we are a leader in that industry. I also think manufacturing jobs will lead to growth in the middle class. I think these two factors will result in real estate values to rise again.”
• “Will be a rough future for those whose well-being is tied to residential real estate. There needs to be more thought on how to cultivate more 1st time homebuyers. Commercial real estate has brighter future.”
• “Positively, with incremental increases, again.”

2015: No Growth

• “There is too much uncertainty to know how the economy will move.”
• “Interest rates will dictate future real estate changes mainly as it relates to FFO. That may dictate the need to lean up payrolls.”
• “Everywhere we look we see signs that the economy is in real trouble and so, in anticipation of the upcoming crash, we are hoarding cash, reducing development and acquisition personnel (also to save on the soaring healthcare costs) and selling into the bubble.”
• “2015 I expect will be a year of consolidations and job elimination in favor of investor profits.”
• “I do not see my industry advancing in 2015. Increased government control is a detriment to the real estate valuation industry.”
• “Much of the job growth in the country seems to be in the IT industry. These firms (both new and old) don’t need the large number of people to produce similar revenues and profits of traditional industries). Unless there is significant job growth in industries outside of IT and retail, there is limited demand for office space except in a few urban areas. Many firms in a A/E are only hiring low- medium salaried staff. Firms can’t or actually won’t raise fees since there are plenty of up and coming firms willing to work for a reduce fees (often performing free work just to get work). Developer know this and are taking full advantage during these tight times.”
• “I believe the stock market is overvalued and interest rates have been kept low for too long. As the fed begins to raise interest rates, I see a chilling effect on the economy.”
• “While HUD has received Commitment Authority of $30 Billion, they will not likely utilize it all. The trend will be affordable construction and LEAN/Healthcare deals in FHA/HUD Commercial RE. Given lower volumes additional staffing will be unnecessary and employee count overall should decrease.”
• “Many retailers are shuttering locations, which means less of a need for retail real estate professionals. Real estate developers are largely outsourcing their in-house leasing positions to brokers.”
• “All new hiring will be offset by lay-offs from different sectors.”
• “DC economy is weak. Office already suffering, so multifamily is probably overbuilt. With dollar strengthening and exports consequently harder, tough to imagine catalysts for strength. Imagine some shaking-out that has begun in office intensifies, moves to multifamily, industrial, etc.”
• “The industry has consolidated and contracted in an unprecedented manner. I do not see any significant growth for another two years. Labor market is vague, dynamic, unstable, temporary, and uncertain. Outside forces continue to erode economic, political, and social confidence. Internal forces continue to strangle business growth, and this is seen in every sector of the economy.”
• I was employed by Sprint and was recently, November 7, 2014, laid-off, part of a 7,000 person reduction in force.
• “I believe the economy is in a bubble and will take a huge drop in 2015. In 2007, I predicted the Dow will fall from 13000 to under 7000 and oil to drop from $113 a barrel to under $50. Oil is now dropping, the Dow will follow. In my opinion we just had a 6 year Bear Market Rally. I am looking for the Dow to drop to 4000. Real estate will follow. Interest rates will sky rocket.”
• “Dismal.”

Compensation:

• “Continued push on productivity and value add.”
• “Firms will be required to offer more robust and competitive compensation packages to new employees in order to attract the best talent.”
• “I see companies demanding a lot more from an employee (tasks and overtime wise) while pay remains relatively the same. I also see many unemployed people, but very few quality candidates who possess skills and experience OR the right attitude/hunger for learning (those are usually the employed ones). I think the new generation with its sense of entitlement has produced a lazy unmotivated workforce, unfortunately. That’s just been my observation in the past year while trying to hire people for lower to mid-level accounting positions. My company is rapidly growing (industrial acquisitions & property management) and we’re constantly hiring. Judging by the traffic in LA (which got so much worst in the past 2 years), I’d say the economy is doing just fine here and I believe there are plenty of jobs out there.”
• “Middle Managers will continue to find it difficult if not impossible to find opportunities. New Jobs will be created at the entry level and more experienced people will apply. It will be interesting to see if employers hire experienced people; probably not.”
• “I see my company continuing to extract more from fewer staff. The trend is to not replace staff as they leave, but rather spread those tasks amongst remaining. This has already caused issues with things not getting done in a timely manner, and results in poor morale. I also anticipate there will be deliberate cutting of staff. While there may be bonuses paid to those who remain, I expect to see small to no salary increases. I don’t see this getting better in 2015.”
• “2015 will be a lot like 2014 in terms of economic robustness, but for different reasons. I expect 2015 to be much better. Wages should rise, the quit rate/churn rate should increase, and there will be more competition for talent.”
• “The real estate industry lags behind in remuneration levels for marketing professionals. There is a strong trend towards standardization and brand policing rather than innovation in creating compelling stories for connecting services to customers. There are bright lights out there but they seem to be outside rather than inside the various big real estate houses.”
• “I haven’t recovered from the great recession, though many others have. Our company’s stock is at an all-time high, but the employees are still struggling.”
• “Seems as though the job market is loosening up some (finally) but that compensation packages are lower than in past years as firms adjusted them during the recession and they haven’t caught back up. Hopefully as the market tightens this dynamic will change.”
• “More of the same. Good for real estate because of job growth, cheap capital, and global flow of capital. Overall economy: Job creation strong, but wage growth way too low. Cheap oil may be a wash as taxes increase and the general economy may slow due to global economic decline. Cheers!”
• “Contrary to what the public thinks or reads, the job market for experienced real estate professionals is poor. The mindset to hire less experienced staff (no market experience) for cheaper rates and think they will have what it takes to keep companies afloat is reminiscent of the short term ideology that created real estate problems only six years ago. Only now with low interest rates, the bottom will be even worse than before because the drop in property value will be even more severe.”
• “I feel like hiring and increase in compensation depends on the part of the real estate industry that you are in. For-profit multifamily developers seem to be rebounding and demand is strong. But not-for-profit developers dependent on shrinking government subsidy to build affordable housing are struggling, despite the improved economy.”
• “Property management salaries on average will continue to slide as employers continue the trend of hiring less experienced candidates to fill positions that would have previously been reserved for more experienced candidates.”
• “I do believe the pace of current U.S. economic growth will create new jobs in 2015, but not increase salaries. A cost of living increase would help a person’s overall salary.”
• “In my opinion employers are able to take advantage of the economy by adopting the attitude that employees should simply be happy to have a job. I am hearing industry wide that employees are overwhelmed with the amount of responsibility yet receiving less pay.”
• “Job creation is in the low end not middle management and upper tier.”
• “U.S. will remain in economic turmoil with job growth in non-strategic areas and lower paying jobs.”
• I am unemployed and have been for just over a year. I would hope that things pick up. While employers may attempt to hold the line on salary increases to maintain their so-called “cost to produce” or profitability/bonus goals, In 2015, many high value employees will find better opportunities with the competition. In the mortgage business, we are seeing a mass exodus of high value employees in search of better pay and opportunities, and the resulting cost to the incumbent employer is recruiting costs, higher salaries, re-training, and loss of job morale. I am happy to say that capitalism is alive and well, after so many months and years of stagnant growth.

When Will It Peak

• The development cycle will peak for major markets with secondary markets peaking in 2016. We will then be in a period of stagnant rents followed by the down cycle (acquisition phase).
• “The peak of the cycle will be in the next 6 months. Noticeable drop in rents by the end of year.”
• “I believe that the economy has not yet cleared all the hurdles needed for significant job or wage growth. I look for an economic slowdown sometime after Mid-year 2015.”
• “I think the year ahead will trend similarly to 2014. I think job growth and small wage increases will remain consistent with 2014.”
• “I see no indication the employment will decrease.”
• “Our division will increase personnel by nearly 5 percent in first quarter. Leasing team, though, will decrease in size slightly.”
• “Plodding global growth or full on global recession. Who knows?”
• “I don’t think the job growth will be substantial or create new professional level jobs.”

The Pace of Hiring

• “VERY Volatile…..”
• “Should be on pace to meet or exceed 2014.”
• “Pace of hiring is overestimated.”
• “Continued improvement but at a slow pace.”
• “SLUGGISH ECONOMY.”
• “Full speed ahead.”
• “Slow, uneven progress.”
• “Continued improvement but at a slow pace.”
• “Continued slow and steady growth in 2015.”
• “Hope to keep up the pace.”
• “I don’t project any major changes for 2015. I think we continue to grow at a slow but steady pace.”

The Politics of Job Growth

• “I am in a market dominated by state government (Sacramento) that experienced extreme job loss. While the state has stabilized, it has left the local commercial real estate market in a depressed state due to the overbuilding during the previous boom. It will be sometime before demand, then rents will increase to a level to justify development. Housing was lifted by private equity purchases without an equivalent level of demand from SF buyers, therefore, may not experience any appreciable level of increase in home prices for an extended period coupled with a return to urban lifestyle related to millennials. Multifamily demand (operations and investment) is strong, and what development is occurring in this market is mostly MF, albeit oriented towards tax incentive/low income and infill.”
• “Due to the Affordable Care Act (obamacare), hiring will decline due to quota cut backs. This is the primary reason why my current employer will be cutting 1500 positions in January, 2015. Employment will continue to regress until the ACA is repealed.”
• “Good for the haves, not good for the have-nots. Washington too involved in everyone’s business.”
• “I don’t expect the national economy to change at all because of the lame duck incumbent democratic president & too much turmoil throughout the world.”
• Chaos will continue with more disruption in US due to Obama & Congress being dysfunctional; singularly & collectively.”
• “Two more years of Obama will keep things slow until we get someone who believes in free enterprise.”
• “Until there is a new face in the White House, there is not much hope for anything but continued stupidity, thus minimum job growth, a continued sputtering national economy, and radical racial divide, to keep the general population’s eyes focused on something besides the real problem!!!”
• “Until the current administration in this country is out of office, nothing will change. Once that is accomplished, things will start moving again.”
• “I believe that we are still struggling as a nation and hope that arrangements will be made to focus on American Citizens before we focus on illegal aliens coming to our country.”
• “The US is headed for deflation.”
• “Other than political talking points, there are no real indications or signs of things improving. Best case things may stay the same.”
• “I am not very hopefully given the current direction the country is headed in. Lack of leadership at the federal level does not provide for a good climate for growth. Under the current leadership I have seen my own economic position steadily decline.
• “I believe that a rosier than reality picture has been painted for all through the media to incentivize all to keep working hard and sacrificing for those that no longer wish to put forth the necessary minimal effort to positively contribute to our society. They choose not to make an effort because they feel things are owed to them just because of who they are or because of perceived slights. Don’t see this changing until the bubble bursts and all grow up. Thank you for the opportunity to comment.”
• “There will be positive hiring numbers reported, but nothing substantial; there will still be too many nonworking people who are not counted as the unemployed because they no longer qualify for benefits. Not enough new executive jobs will be offered, so the hiring will be amongst the less-skilled. This is positive for the lower class, but not great for the middle-class. The economic situation may stabilize in a positive manner due to the lower oil prices. Purchasing power will decrease slightly too, since wages will not increase. Although lower oil means lower production and shipping costs, companies will want to keep the gain in profits, so they will not lower prices. They have suffered through several years of economic recession and want to start reporting/retaining the profit increases. The lack of confidence in government will continue through 2015 – the Republicans will not have enough time (ability?) to enact legislation to demonstrate a solid course for the country. And, President 0bama will not be motivated to work with Congress on any of the sensitive issues since he will wish to make his base (and himself) happy. It is largely history repeating itself for the 7th straight year with a few narrow rays of sunlight.”

Location Location Location

• “No place better than Texas. Houston will continue to lead the nation in economic growth and prosperity.”
• “Apartment companies will do well. A perfect storm in Denver with 10 to 15% rent growth.”
• “Real estate is blowing up in Denver!”
• “Construction in NY metro area is seeing lots of growth in both projects and employee hiring. Don’t let it fool you it’s not so robust in other areas.”
• “I am currently working for a vacation ownership resort and would much prefer to go back to real estate property management. I feel the economy is doing well and hope to find more opportunities available in the Washington DC area in 2015.”
• “I live in Washington DC. As you know, the housing and real estate industry has and is booming. Commercial Real Estate is at an all-time high. But, the residential real estate industry is complex. Many are shut out of affordable housing in leasehold and freehold. My findings of this matter are due to working with the Mauriel Bowser Campaign for Washington, DC Mayor’s Race. We polled the residents of the city about housing in Washington DC. People are stunned at what it cost.”

By: SelectLeaders (CCIM Institute)
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