Economics Expert Slightly More Optimistic for Next Fiscal Year

By: Bruce Krasnow (Santa Fe New Mexican)
At the start of the 2016 legislative session, New Mexico State University economics professor Jim Peach was asked about his expectations for the state economy and what that might mean for government budgets.
Peach’s answer was not especially popular: “I would simply count on no new money,” he told the Legislative Finance Committee in January.
It turned out Peach was right, and even overly optimistic — in the weeks that followed, the state cut its revenue forecast and slashed spending to fight off a deficit, a process that didn’t end until lawmakers finally trimmed another 5 percent from most spending during a special session in early October.
Peach was back before lawmakers last week to discuss a new analysis by the Arrowhead Center at NMSU on economic base jobs in the state. But lawmakers couldn’t resist asking him about the outlook for the state’s economy in the coming fiscal year, which begins July 1, 2017.
“Fiscal year 2018 looks better than it has. My guess is we’re going to be OK,” he said. But he also added, “I’m an eternal optimist because I’m a Cubs fan.”
Peach said the state still is far too reliant on revenues from the volatile energy sector, which might contribute as much as a third of all the general fund dollars in one form or another. But crude oil prices are staying in the range of forecasters, $45 to $50 a barrel, and production levels are so far holding up in the Permian Basin.
And if prices can increase just a little, the state will see even more production for crude, and that means more exploration and employment, he said.
But the short-term news won’t solve more systemic problems, such as a higher-education system that lags neighboring states in terms of quality and a workforce that lacks in necessary skills. “We’re going to be further behind unless we change our ways,” he told lawmakers.
If it seems like New Mexico has been attracting a relatively high number of call center jobs, it’s part of a regional trend with more Western states seeing a growth in call center employment.
“Even when the state loses a call center, another seems to open in its place,” writes Adam Garcia and Ashley Leach, economists with the Department of Workforce Solutions in the agency’s September Labor Market Review.
As of 2015, the state had 58 call centers with a total 5,637 jobs. This represents just under 1 percent of total employment, which is actually less than Utah, with call center employment at 1.5 percent, and Arizona at 1.3 percent. In fact, all the states west of the Mississippi except for Washington and California had a higher percentage of call center jobs than the national average, with Idaho, Utah and Arizona having the highest concentration of such jobs in the United States, according to the analysis.
Sandoval County has a particularly high concentration of call center jobs, with 2,249 jobs totaling 10.5 percent of private employment. The average weekly wage of a call center employee was $569 statewide but $736 in Sandoval County.
Since Comcast is Santa Fe’s cable provider, it’s important to note that the company recently settled a dispute with the FCC over customer complaints.
Comcast agreed to pay a $2.3 million civil penalty and agreed to more transparency in the way it charges customers, especially with new services and price increases for existing services.
According to CNN Money, Comcast must send customers notifications “every time a new charge or service is added to their bill.”
The company also has to tell customers how to block the additional services or equipment, and is barred from referring an account to collections or suspending an account that has a disputed charge.
Click here for more on the economic predictions.
Click here to view source article.