Transaction velocity in the industrial sector over the past year has supplied a nuanced signal to commercial real estate investors.
Despite a modest dip in total warehouse deal volume, investor demand for high-quality logistics assets remains apparent. According to Savills’ data, sales volumes this year have consistently hovered above pre-pandemic averages: In 2025, quarterly warehouse sales volumes ranged from approximately $15 billion to $25 billion. By comparison, pre-pandemic quarters from 2015 to 2019 saw ranges primarily between $10 billion and $20 billion, with several quarters below $15 billion.
A key development for investors is the movement in cap rates. Over the last year, the average cap rate for industrial assets increased by 20 basis points, standing marginally above 6.3 percent, as of Q3 2025. This upward shift in yields has not precipitated a decline in values; instead, asset pricing has remained firm as buyers adjust underwriting to account for higher capital costs. The trend suggests that investors recognize underlying strength in net operating income and anticipate continued demand for modern, well-located distribution space.
Industrial building values outperformed broader market segments with notable consistency. The Commercial Property Price Index for industrial assets remains up 47 percent from 2020, far outstripping the plateauing trajectory of other commercial real estate sectors. This performance gap is not incidental. It underscores sustained occupier demand linked to supply chain logistics, e-commerce and manufacturing resilience. Even as the price curve for all commercial sectors has flattened, industrial values continue to escalate.
Debt risk is another area where industrial distinguishes itself. CMBS delinquency rates in the sector are just 0.6 percent, indicating limited distress, and risk levels remain exceptionally low. By contrast, office delinquencies have risen to 11.1 percent, with retail and multifamily hovering near six to seven percent. This sharp differentiation points to healthier tenancy, shorter lease downtime and prudent capital structures within the industrial asset class.
Viewed in aggregate, Savills’ metrics indicate that the industrial market’s fundamentals—steady demand, resilient pricing and limited debt distress—continue to attract capital amid investor caution in other property types. Cap rates have increased, but the sector’s risk profile remains compelling, positioning industrial as an enduring preferred haven for institutional and private capital seeking stability and long-term growth.
Source: “Industrial Cap Rates Edge Up, But Sector Shows Resilience”
