Archives for January 2014

In each Economic Update, the Research staff analyzes recently released economic indicators and addresses what these indicators mean for REALTORS® and their clients. Today’s update discusses the latest data on the unemployment rate.

• The unemployment rate plunged in December to the lowest level in five years.  The latest 6.7 percent jobless rate is almost back to normal.  The mystery, however, is that very few jobs were created over the month.
• The all-important payroll jobs grew by only 74,000 in December.  That is much less than the 200,000 or so that are needed each month to move the job market into a noticeably improved state.
• The principal reason for the deep fall in the unemployment rate is due to nearly ½ million people leaving the labor force in the past three months.  When people are not looking for work, even though they are without a job, they are no longer officially classified as being unemployed.  The opposite side of the coin – the employment rate, measuring what proportion of the adult population has a job – remains stuck at recession levels.  Only 58.6 percent of adults have jobs compared to 63 percent prior to the Great Recession.   In this sense the job market has only been treading water over the past five years with no meaningful progress.
• As to job creation over a longer period, from the low point in 2010 a total of 7.5 million net new jobs have been added to the economy.  Note that 8 million jobs were lost during the Great Recession, so we have not yet fully recovered all the jobs that were shed several years ago.  Moreover, every year there are fresh high-school and college graduates looking for jobs.
• Improvements in the housing sector led to about 100,000 net new jobs over the past 12 months in residential construction and for general contractors.  In the more sluggish commercial real estate arena, only 20,000 jobs have been added.
• In other sectors, rental leasing jobs have increased solidly by 46,000.  The low apartment vacancy rates naturally require more workers for property management.  Federal government jobs have fallen by 80,000.  Given that the defense spending has been taking the biggest blow over the past year, many military and defense related jobs may have been shed.    Finally, Hollywood is hemorrhaging as there are 23,000 fewer jobs (a big 6 percent plunge) in the motion pictures and sound recording industries.  Smiles at Oscars could be of the sad kind.
• Despite the mixed news on employment, the direction is clearly for the better.  The net 2.2 million new jobs and the likely 2 million or so in the current year will provide support for home sales and increased leasing of commercial buildings.

 
 
By: Lawrence Yun (Economist’s Outlook)
Click here to view source article.

As the number of Americans over age 65 climbs to more than 18 million in the next decade, industry experts predict shifting demands for medical office facilities, according to Marcus & Millichap’s 2013 Medical Office Research Report.
The roll out of the Affordable Care Act in 2014 and beyond will create new dynamics in the medical office sector. With an estimated 25 million previously uninsured Americans gaining access to coverage by 2016, healthcare facilities must be better equipped to handle increased patient volumes. In addition, an estimated 130,000 physicians are scheduled to retire by 2025, requiring health systems to become increasingly creative with virtual strategies and other technology-related solutions to remain profitable and manage patient loads with fewer on-site staff members. (CCIM)
 

In each Economic Update, the Research staff analyzes recently released economic indicators and addresses what these indicators mean for REALTORS® and their clients. Today’s update discusses the latest in employment conditions.

• The national economy continues to heal and move ahead.  A total of 7.5 million net new jobs have been added in the past 4 years following the disastrous 8 million net job cuts during the Great Recession.  In the past 12 months, 2.3 million net new jobs have been added, representing a growth rate of 1.7 percent for the country as a whole.
• Some states and metro markets are doing much better than the national job growth rate while others are faring much worse.  North Dakota continues to shine due principally to massive new oil and gas production.  The southern states of Texas, Florida, and Georgia have robust job growth.   Alabama and D.C. (just the city proper and not the suburbs) are stalled with net zero job creation.  Alaska lost some jobs.  Puerto Rico is under tremendous stress with 4.3 percent fewer jobs, portending a possible government bankruptcy like one experienced in Detroit.
• Among the metro markets, several small Florida markets are on fire (Sebastian-Vero Beach growing at +8.1%; Naples +7.9%; and Port St. Lucie +6.1%).  The energy cities of Odessa and Midland are also moving fast with a 5% growth rate.  Among the large cities, there are three standouts:  Tampa-St. Petersburg (+3.3%), Houston (+3.1%), and Nashville (+3.1%).
• The table below shows the ranking of states and U.S. territories:

Thanks to all of the brokers, sponsors and guests who attended the January CCIM Deal Making Session.  More than 20 million dollars of commercial real estate properties available for sale were presented from all over New Mexico.