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Archives for 2022

As Women in CRE Switch Jobs, The Industry’s Progress in DEI Efforts Faces a Setback

December 12, 2022 by CARNM

Women across the nation are switching jobs at the highest rate ever witnessed. Women in leadership positions are particularly mobile—and at a higher rate than men in leadership.

To put the scale of the problem in perspective: for every woman at the director level who gets promoted to the next level, two women directors are choosing to leave their company, according to research from McKinsey & Co.’s Women in the Workplace 2022. (The survey collected information from 333 participating organizations employing more than 12 million people, surveyed more than 40,000 employees and conducted interviews with women of diverse identities, including women of color, LGBTQ+ women and women with disabilities).

The commercial real estate industry isn’t immune from the churn. In fact, since the start of the pandemic, one in four women professionals (27 percent) surveyed by CREW Network has taken a new job at another commercial real estate company, while eight percent interviewed for a new job but did not switch, according to the organization’s 2022 industry research paper, Building the CRE Workforce of the Future. The research study gathered insights from more than 1,200 commercial real estate professionals across five countries, in more than 25 specializations and 10 sectors.

Of the 27 percent who left to take a new position at another company, 51 percent sought better opportunity/career growth, while 22 percent said their values/priorities no longer aligned with their previous company. Only 13 percent left for better compensation/benefits.

There has been some minor improvement in recent years. A 2022 research survey from the National Association of Real Estate Investment Managers (NAREIM) found that in North America, women now represent 42.5 percent of the commercial real estate workforce, a 3.7 percent jump from 2021. There was also a slight increase in Black and African-American women in the industry, at 3.7 percent, up from 3.1 percent the year prior. The study found that of the firms it surveyed 95 percent were addressing DEI issues, and almost nine out of 10 firms had set specific quantitative or qualitative goals to gauge their success. (NAREIM’s study included participation from 192 unique firms, representing more than 375,041 full-time employees in a cross-section of various commercial real estate businesses, sectors and locations).

However, women leaders in general are more than 1.5 times as likely as men at their level to have left a previous job because they wanted to work for a company that was more committed to DEI, according to McKinsey.

“Many women have moved on to other opportunities that are a better fit for their career aspirations and lifestyle,” says Wendy Mann, CEO of CREW Network. “This has been dubbed ‘The Great Aspiration’.” The implications of this trend on commercial real estate businesses are significant. If companies cannot hold onto the women employees they have today, particularly women leaders, their futures as diverse and inclusive workplaces will be in jeopardy. That is particularly true of commercial real estate, where women represent 37 percent of the overall workforce and hold only nine percent of the industry’s leadership positions.

“Young women are even more ambitious, and they place a higher premium on working in an equitable, supportive and inclusive workplace,” states McKinsey’s Women in the Workplace 2022. “They’re watching senior women leave for better opportunities, and they’re prepared to do the same.”

The global consulting firm found that more than two-thirds of women under 30 wants to be senior leaders. Additionally, well over half say advancement has become more important to them in the past two years.

“DEI is not a nice-to-have,” Mann says. “It’s a must-have in the world we live in today, not just because it’s the right thing to do, but because success depends on having diverse, innovative people within their organizations. Research has shown that the bottom line is 10 percent better with women in leadership.”

“Broken rung” is still broken

The scarcity of women leaders is partly attributable to the “broken rung”—a term used to describe the first step from entry level to manager. Consider this: for every 100 men who are promoted from entry level to manager, only 87 women are promoted, and just 82 women of color are promoted, according to McKinsey.

Mann notes that the percentage of women in the commercial real estate industry has remained static over the past five years. Even more alarming is the fact that the percentage of women leaders hasn’t changed in the last 15 years. This lack of progress reflects the unrelenting challenges that women face as they ascend into leadership roles.

“When the pandemic hit, we felt like progress really derailed for women, or at the very least, progress was delayed,” Mann says. “However, our recent research tells us that women are experiencing greater satisfaction with their careers because employers are doing salary administration and providing salary transparency. This is positive progress, though it’s still slow going.”

More than table stakes

When it comes to DEI, many people toss around the term “table stakes.” In this context, table stakes refer to the minimum DEI effort required to have a credible position in the marketplace. Examples of DEI table stakes include tracking representation and attrition by gender and race, conducting equal pay assessments and making adjustments as needed, and setting clear and specific evaluation criteria for hiring and performance reviews.

More than 92 percent of respondents in CREW’s 2022 survey said their companies are inclusive (for the purposes of the survey, inclusive refers to the practice or policy of providing equal access to opportunities and resources for people who might otherwise be excluded or marginalized, such as those having disabilities or belonging to other minority groups).

It’s important to note, however, that 44 percent of respondents described their companies as “somewhat” inclusive. A much smaller percentage have progressed to leading DEI practices such as setting goals for representation in management and senior leadership by the intersection of gender and race (e.g. women of color), providing allyship training and establishing formal sponsorship and/or mentorship programs specifically for women and/or women of color.

An even smaller percentage of companies—less than 30 percent—have implemented emerging DEI efforts. Examples include providing financial incentives to senior leaders for making progress on diversity metrics and having a bias monitor sit in on candidate reviews for hiring and promotion decisions.

Multifamily developer and manager The NRP Group is part of the small percentage of companies that have embraced emerging DEI efforts. For example, the Cleveland-based firm established a Diversity Leadership Council and uses a DEI scorecard to track its progress, according to Jennifer Baus, principal and executive vice president of design and entitlements for the firm.

“We’ve made steady progress over the past few years with DEI, and we’re committed to continuing to improve,” she says.

Currently, women account for 40 percent of NRP’s and 59 percent of NRP’s managers. Women and people of color represent 45 percent of the firm’s executive and senior leadership.

Imagining a place for themselves

When it comes to recruiting women and women of color, DEI professionals often talk about representation. When potential employees cannot see themselves in the commercial real estate industry—when they see no one who looks like them—it’s difficult for them to imagine a place for themselves.

“When I joined NRP, I looked around, and I didn’t have someone of the same gender who I looked up to or that I could go to for advice,” Baus says. “There were a few women who were my equal, but no one ahead of me.”

According to CREW Network’s most recent benchmark study (2020), women in commercial real estate rank the lack of a company mentor or sponsor as one of the top three barriers to their advancement in the industry. Only 56 percent of 2022 survey respondents said they had access to a mentor or sponsor in the last two years. The number was significantly lower for people of color—only 21 percent had a mentor or sponsor in the last two years.

These personal connections lead to relationships that can transform and advance careers. With the help of mentors, it’s much easier for talent to develop strong working relationships with their managers, peers, and other key stakeholders.

Baus, after years of dreaming of launching an employee resource group for women, founded NRP’s Women’s Inclusion Network (WIN) in 2018. The group’s mission is to “bring women in, promote them up, and keep them there,” she says.

WIN initiatives include: NRP Legacy, a series of fireside chats held in conjunction with Cleveland State University about the power of mentoring; Curiosity Conversations, panel discussions with industry leaders around relevant topics that impact the business; and Limitless, discussions that delve into leadership and emotional intelligence.

Baus is certain that WIN has contributed positively to NRP’s ability to recruit and retain talented women at all levels. “I think it helps to entice candidates and encourage them to come to NRP because we are showing them that we are so welcoming,” she says.

She also credits WIN with helping to advance women within NRP, herself included. Two years ago, she and Chief Information Officer Rachel Johnson joined the firm’s executive team, and earlier this year, both women were named principals—the first women to be welcomed into the partnership in the firm’s 25-year history.

“Now that Rachel and I are principals, I hope our employees, especially our women employees, can see that their interests are represented and protected by other women,” Baus says.

Source: “As Women in CRE Switch Jobs, The Industry’s Progress in DEI Efforts Faces a Setback“

Filed Under: All News

What Online Shopping Could Mean For Smaller Retailers

December 12, 2022 by CARNM

Online shopping on Black Friday hit new records this year despite an overwhelmingly gloomy economic outlook, with shoppers spending more than $9 billion the day after Thanksgiving and $11 billion on Cyber Monday.  And what’s more, the National Retail Federation says holiday shopping sales will likely rise by between 6% and 8% over last year’s figures to hit a number north of $960 billion.

So what do those staggering online shopping numbers mean for smaller brick-and-mortar retailers that are reliant on foot traffic for sales? Well,  turns out there’s some data for that.

“One clue to answering these questions can be found when looking at a fun fact about the tenant mix at neighborhood center retail properties,” says Trepp’s Vivek Denkanikotte in a new report. “When analyzing the top-five largest tenants for these properties, five of the 10 are exposed to budget-oriented retailers: Dollar Tree, Family Dollar, Cato, Dollar General, and Big Lots. Even if consumer spending declines going forward, the trend of higher-income consumers trading down is likely a net positive for neighborhood retail.”

To aid in that analysis, Trepp analyzed neighborhood retailers that reported financial data for the past three full years of 2019 through 2021, focusing on total revenue, total operating expenses, and net operating income, with respect to the square footage occupied.  Denkanikotte found that while numbers dipped “significantly” during 2020, all metrics sustained increases in 2021 and surpassed pre-pandemic numbers as well.

“It remains to be seen how the 2022 financials will perform given how much interest rates have increased in 2022 and that inflation did not peak until mid-2022,” he says.

Denkanikotte also is eyeing CMBS data for clues, noting that while delinquencies for the overall market and in retail in particular “soared” in the immediate aftermath of COVID-19, they have been on the decline since.

“The gap has been reducing since delinquencies peaked in June 2020, and though overall distress has returned to pre-COVID levels, retail delinquency rates still sit relatively high,” he says. “This could be due to the emphasis on e-commerce that resulted because of COVID, negatively impacting more commercial properties in retail compared to other property types.”

Ultimately, he says, whether the boost in online sales over Thanksgiving is indicative of a shift away from in-person shopping or is instead an outlier  ”will have grand implications for commercial real estate investment.” But “for now, we can only speculate,” he says.

Notably, more than 122 million people visited brick-and-mortar stores in person over Black Friday weekend this year, an increase of 17% over 2021 figures, according to the NRF.  The organization’s CEO Matt Shay told CNBC last month that the data shows consumers are eager to shop in stores again.

“Consumers are out shopping, but they’re out shopping when they see deals and when they get the promotions that meet what it is they’re looking for, and so you can get them engaged, but you’ve got to deliver value and price,” he said on a media call with reporters, according to CNBC.

Source: “What Online Shopping Could Mean For Smaller Retailers“

Filed Under: All News

Prologis Predicts Significant Drop in Warehouse Development

December 12, 2022 by CARNM

Prologis is predicting that U.S. warehouse development starts will drop to a 7-year low, as rent growth exceeds 10%.

Starts are already 30% below their peak in Europe and Prologis expects that to continue in the US. The warehouse property owner says the rapid rise in the cost of capital is the culprit and starts will fall by 60% to less than 175 million square feet in 2023.

“A pullback of this magnitude would create a shortage of space in 2024,” according to Prologis’ report. “The pipeline will drop from over 500 million square feet in Q3 2022 to 275 by year-end 2023.”

However, low vacancy will produce another year of double-digit rent growth.

“Even if new demand fell to zero, the national vacancy rate would increase by just 260 bps to 5.9%, well below the long-term average,” the firm said.

Adam Roth, executive vice president of industrial services at NAI Hiffman and director of NAI Global Logistics, agreed.

“The combination of higher capital cost and record construction pricing will greatly reduce the development of speculative industrial space,” Roth said. “I see a bigger drop off in 2024 as projects already started will be delivered in 2023. Fewer starts will occur in 2023 resulting in less deliveries in 2024.”

Sustainability Warehouse Development Could Pick Up

Prologis did forecast favorably for sustainable warehouse development.

Installed warehouse rooftop solar capacity will double, and EV truck charging capacity will exceed 10 megawatts, the firm said.

Prologis argues that building future-proof facilities can shield logistics companies from future operational risks, including changing regulations, community resistance and volatile fossil fuel-based energy pricing.

Roth disagreed to some extent.

“I do see ESG and the focus on sustainability growing, however I believe the actual implementation to be more muted and take more time,” he said. “Development costs will remain high and constrained in 2023 including the power grid as well as the equipment to expand power.”

Prologis said that costs for sustainable building and operations are dropping, and government incentive programs and the European energy crisis have the power to turbocharge these longer-term trends.

In Europe, cities with low-emission transportation zones comprise more than 60% of logistics markets as of 2022, up from less than 25% in 2015, according to the report.

Prologis Research leveraged decades of industry experience and proprietary data, as well as unique insights from its approximately 1.2 billion square feet global portfolio and 6,200 customers, to predict non-pandemic trends for 2023.

Strong Demand Will Continue

Jerry Sullivan, principal, DarwinPW Realty/CORFAC International, tells GlobeSt.com that demand will continue to be strong in 2023. And while completed lease transactions are down from 2021, demand will remain high due to the lack of product.

However, new development will slow next year, especially the first half of the year.

“We will likely see developer-controlled sites offered as build to suit opportunities and depending on the amount of interest may entice developers back to spec development sooner than anticipated,” Sullivan said.

“Due to the continued demand and the lack of readily available product lease rates will continue to increase as will annual escalations.”

Sullivan also predicted that e-commerce would increase in 2023, “but we feel that will also see an increase in manufacturing facilities as well.”

Source: “Prologis Predicts Significant Drop in Warehouse Development“

Filed Under: All News

Last Year’s Stellar Industrial Numbers Won’t Happen Again But That’s Okay

December 9, 2022 by CARNM

Last year the industrial asset class knocked it out of the park in terms of performance. Industry watchers hoping for a repeat will be disappointed, James Breeze, CBRE’s senior director and global head of Industrial & Logistics Research told the audience at the GlobeSt.com INDUSTRIAL real estate event held this week in Scottsdale, AZ. “They just won’t happen again.” For instance, leasing activity is down 10% this year compared to 2021, he said. And there has been a noticeable decline in light industrial space leasing by smaller businesses that have been affected by the economic uncertainty.

But that doesn’t mean the asset class isn’t well situated not only for the mild recession that Breeze and many other economists are expecting in 2023 but also for longer-term trends as well. And even if the halcyon days of 2021 are in the rearview mirror, the sector is still posting very strong activity, Breeze said.

Leasing activity may be down 10% this year, but it is still up 36% compared to 2020. “We’ll probably finish this year at 850 million square feet of leasing activity,” Breeze said. Also, the average rent growth is close to 19% “and that is a record.”

Next year fundamentals bode well. There are many markets in the US that are considered undersupplied and there is not much fear of industrial being hit with an oversupply, Breeze said. Right now, the current development pipeline is 28.6% pre-leased and 73% of everything that has been built this year is already off market. Meanwhile, there are plenty of industrial assets that need replacement or updating. Breeze pointed out that the average age of a building in the Inland Empire is 25 years old. A lot of the US inventory is becoming obsolete. We need much more development.”

All in all, “it is a good place going into a recession,” he said.

Some of the demand drivers for the space include e-commerce sales, which did drop off after the pandemic receded into the background but still can’t be counted out as a significant factor in the industrial market. Breeze said that e-commerce sales are projected to reach 32% of all sales by 2032.

A desire by companies to trim their transportation costs is another factor behind industrial’s growth. Between 45% to 70% of a company’s supply chain costs are transportation costs. Tenants are also eager to keep a 30-day inventory on hand now that the supply chains have evened out.

Finally, there is this: 64% of occupiers expect to grow in the next three years, Breeze said. Apparently, they are sanguine about the upcoming recession, which is exactly the attitude you want in a tenant.

Source: “Last Year’s Stellar Industrial Numbers Won’t Happen Again But That’s Okay“

Filed Under: All News

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