As the traditional summer vacation season wrapped up, it became easier to focus on the economic performance over the first half of the year. However, the task became an exercise in reading fortune cookies given the many changes in the economy, the markets, and the legislative environment.
The main measure of economic activity — gross domestic product — has been redefined and revised by the Bureau of Economic Analysis during the second quarter. It has been redefined to include business investments in intellectual property, such as research & development, software, and entertainment and original artistic work. GDP has also been revised, as it normally is at regular intervals.
The results point to an economy that nominally is much stronger than it was a quarter ago, by almost $2.0 trillion. At the same time, the revised annual rate of growth for first quarter GDP dropped from 2.7 to 1.2%. However, the estimate for the second quarter growth rate is 1.7%, indicating an accelerating economy. Of course, given the pace of acceleration, we should not expect any whiplash, as there is no hurry in the macro advance. (Economists Outlook Blog by George Ratiu) Full Story