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Archives for January 2015

Room to grow?…Hundreds of new homes on the drawing board in Las Soleras at the south end of Cerrillos Road

January 2, 2015 by mcarristo

This portion of the Las Soleras area near the south end of Cerrillos Road at Interstate 25 is the planned home for a new residential development. (Eddie Moore/Albuquerque Journal)

Times change, and so has the vision for what is described as a major “mixed-use transit oriented” residential development planned for Santa Fe’s south side.

At least in the eyes of the Pulte Group, which this week submitted an application to the city to amend the master plan and rezone portions of Las Soleras, a massive development of unused land between the south end of Cerrillos Road and Interstate 25.

While reducing the density of homes within the residential development, the proposal calls for less open space and doesn’t solve traffic problems created by an incremental approach, critics say.

As the name suggests, the overall development of Las Soleras – solera is a method for aging alcohol drinks or vinegar with ingredients blended over time – is to be accomplished fractionally over many years, and include a mixture of residential, commercial and recreational space.

A small fraction of the commercial space has already been put to use, with McDonald’s leasing space off Cerrillos Road, and Century Bank and State Employees Credit Union and Murphy Oil having purchased lots and set up shop. There’s a Starbucks in operation. Also already in place is a 7,225-square-foot Veterans Administration health clinic at the intersection of Cerrillos and Beckner roads.

This image shows the interior of a Pulte Homes house in Albuquerque similar to some of those planned in Las Soleras in south Santa Fe. (Courtesy of Pulte Homes)

Presbyterian Healthcare Services bought a large lot and space is reserved for the state of New Mexico to build a so-called “super complex,” though it remains to be seen what becomes of those sites.
The master plan calls for more commercial space along Beckner Road and other yet-to-be-constructed roads within the development. Las Soleras’ website also refers to a “pending” Rail Runner stop along I-25 next to the development – an idea included in the original master plan and long discussed among public agencies.
While Las Soleras has been in the works for more than a decade, Jim Siebert, who submitted the plans to the city on behalf of Pulte on Monday, said the entire 550-acre development didn’t receive approval until 2009. The properties now under zoning review are owned by two separate companies, both managed by Gordon “Skip” Skarsgard.
Siebert said Pulte – which acquired Del Webb, a corporation specializing in building adult communities targeting couples 55 and over, in 2000 and Centex Homes, which aims to attract first-time home buyers, in 2009 – is going after both markets with the Las Soleras development.
He explained Pulte is taking an “age targeted” approach for part of the acreage along the lines of a Del Webb project, aimed at older people who may feel more secure in a gated community. The houses will consist of moderately sized, single-story homes selling for between $300,000 and $350,000.
The second type of home Pulte plans to build at Las Soleras is aimed at a more “traditional” market segment, be that first-time home buyers or second-home buyers. These homes could be one or two stories, depending on demand, and could be priced a little higher.
Pulte’s revised plan calls for “downzoning” some residential areas to make them less dense than originally proposed. “The change in density reflects market demand for single-family residential housing that accommodates a broad spectrum of households,” according to the application.
Siebert pointed out that the density would be close to what now exists in the nearby Nava Ade neighborhood. The proposal will first get a city land-use staff review, then go to the Planning Commission and onto the City Council.
Trucks and construction equipment move along Beckner Road in south Santa Fe. The road will cut through the huge Las Soleras development, now starting to take shape with residential building plans going through the city approval process. (Eddie Moore/Albuquerque Journal)

Big plans draw concerns
This isn’t the only residential development planned for Las Soleras. In August, the city’s Planning Commission gave preliminary approval for Ross’ Peak, which would include 204 homes on 32 acres.
Pulte’s new plan calls for 302 homes to be built on 102 acres, but that’s just the start. When complete, Las Soleras will include about 2,000 individual residences for 10,000 people, according to its website.
“Las Soleras is a community that provides the best of both worlds by delivering amenities and conveniences one would expect from a new, modern master-planned community, while maintaining the timeless and classic ambience that makes Santa Fe such a unique place,” it says.
Las Soleras promises to include “a healthy balance of commercial, residential and recreational space, with over 125 acres of parks and open space, and more than 5 miles of trails.”
But residents of neighboring Nava Ade, bordering a portion of the north end of the development, have expressed concerns about traffic flow issues and the reduction of open space under Pulte’s plan.
“Right now, without anything other than school traffic, we have a problem,” said Richard Lang, a Nava Ade Homeowners Association member who served on an ad hoc committee for Las Soleras for eight years prior to the master plan’s approval. “It gets to be severe gridlock every day.”
One of the problems, Lang said, is there is only one way in and out of Monte del Sol Charter School at 4157 Walking Rain Road, which has an enrollment of about 350 students. Roads in the neighborhood are narrow, too, which Lang said makes it difficult for any emergency vehicle to get through. And he said Pulte’s future plans for roads in neighborhoods don’t do much to relieve traffic flow and connectivity with major traffic carriers.
One change to the master plan of concern to Nava Ade residents is that the extension of Walking Rain Road would now cut across 5.7 acres that had been designated as open space for a park.
“I was astounded,” Lang said when he learned of the change at an Early Neighborhood Notification meeting on Dec. 16. “For them not to include that six-acre park is unimaginable to me.”
Lang said earlier plans for the area were in the new urbanism vein, shooting for a “self-sustaining” community with small retail and commercial development along with homes.
Also dumbstruck was Robert Jessen, head learner at Monte del Sol. According to minutes from the December meeting, Jessen said the park was important to the school because presently students don’t have much space to play. Jessen, who could not be reached for this story, also said redirecting Walking Rain Road was a bad idea and that the subdivision design conflicted with the school’s future plans.
Siebert said this week that the Planning Commission had approved two locations for a park, one within the Pulte development and another to the southwest.
“We are going to have open space adjacent to Monte del Sol,” Siebert said. “Whether it’s the open space they were thinking about, I don’t know.”
Siebert did say that, under the latest plan, there would not be enough open space to build ball fields of any kind next to the school. The application addresses the issue only by saying open space will be utilized to connect with the city’s trail system.
A walkable community?

One big question is whether the housing market in Santa Fe can bear the influx of a development that, when complete, will consist of 2,000 new homes.
The outgoing president of the Santa Fe Association of Realtors says the time seems right for the number and type of homes that Pulte, a national company that got its start in Detroit, is planning for Las Soleras.
“We have reduced the number of on-the-market homes quite a bit,” said Coleen Dearing. “It’s definitely something the market needs as long as it’s affordable, and by affordable I mean up to $350,000. Homes in the $200,000 to $350,000 price range are short in supply, especially new construction.”
Also alluring is that the development is designed to have easy access to public transportation. The way Santa Fe has evolved, she said, makes it difficult for anyone to get from the southern reaches of the city to downtown.
“I think the fact that they are approaching it as mixed use is a good idea,” she said. “The availability to transportation is a step in the right direction, especially if the Rail Runner station goes through. That would be a huge benefit.”
The application also considers modifying city bus routes to serve the subdivision.
But Kim Shanahan, executive director of the Santa Fe Area Home Builders Association, says the proposal is a step away from what was originally planned for Las Soleras.
“When it was approved over a decade ago, it was very much in time with walkable communities and urban planning, and it was designed to be that,” he said. “So having a Del Webb community” – gated for older homebuyers – “in the middle of it may negate some of the multi-uses that had been intended.”
Shanahan wondered about the fate of the Rail Runner station that’s been suggested for Las Soleras along I-25 and noted that Santa Fe’s population growth has slowed significantly in recent years. Aside from last year’s annexation, which increased the city’s population by about 13,000, the population has only grown about one-half of a percent per year, or about one-third of what it was 10 years ago, he said.
Shanahan’s other knock on the development is that Pulte tends to utilize its Albuquerque labor force, so it wouldn’t necessarily mean jobs for the local contractors and workers he represents.
But Shanahan agreed that market conditions could be favorable for such a development. It would create competition for developers Homewise, Palo Duro, Ross’ Peak and others, which would be good for the consumer. Pulte’s targeting of the 55 and older set may be the right approach, he said.
“One could say that, given the demographics, the aging baby boomers and the way the city is evolving, a Del Webb may very well find success,” he said. “It could be that Pulte going into that narrow market segment is brilliant.”
Siebert said Pulte wouldn’t be taking the risk if it didn’t think the Santa Fe market is ripe.
He noted the decline in building permits for single-family homes, down from 518 per year prior to 2009 to an average of 168 since then.
“So what’s happened is there’s a pent-up demand that has been created,” he said. “The cost of housing has come down in Santa Fe, so people living in Rio Rancho and other communities and working in Santa Fe will have an option.”
Siebert also said that Pulte has “never given up” on the Rail Runner station and remains optimistic that it will eventually happen.
Up in the air
A piñon tree stump stands in part of the Las Soleras area slated to become a site for new houses under an application submitted to the city this week. (Eddie Moore/Albuquerque Journal)
Las Soleras could prove to be a good option for state government workers who now commute to Santa Fe, if the state office complex ever gets built.
Just prior to Bill Richardson leaving office as governor, a preliminary purchase agreement was in place for the state to pay $6 million and swap 4.4 acres of state land in the Galisteo Business Park near St. Michael’s and Galisteo for 20 acres within Las Soleras. The site had been chosen over 16 other locations vying for what would be an $80 million complex to house the Human Services, Health, Children Youth and Families, and Aging and Long Term Care departments.
Supporters said consolidation of offices now spread across Santa Fe, mostly in rented office buildings that are privately owned, would increase efficiency and could save the state $118 million by 2048. Detractors said it would create a glut of vacant office space around town, increasing the vacancy rate from 15 percent to about 26 percent if the state moved out all those agencies.
Gov. Susana Martinez has delayed closing on the deal through a series of review extensions. A spokesman for the Department of Finance and Administration said this week the matter remains under review.
In 2012, the state Board of Finance, which the governor chairs, voted to eliminate the requirement that a Rail Runner Express stop be located there. That same year, the Legislature directed $4 million that had been set aside for the purchase instead be spent on renovation to the South Capitol Complex on St. Francis Drive south of downtown.
Paperwork that Pulte turned in to the city indicates the company is confident the state complex and a Presbyterian hospital project that’s also been up in the air for Las Soleras will come through.
“This project also provides housing within a short distance of the future development that will occur on the 40-acre Presbyterian Hospital site and the New Mexico State office complex that is anticipated to the southwest of this project within the Las Soleras development,” states a Pulte application questionnaire.
Presbyterian Healthcare Services purchased its Las Soleras land in 2008, but has never committed to building anything there. Considering how much land it bought, there has been much speculation that it would first open a primary care clinic and later a hospital.
A spokeswoman for PHS said this week it was focused on opening a primary care facility on St. Michael’s Drive across from Christus St. Vincent Regional Medical Center and had no plans to announce development on the Las Soleras property.
John Mahoney is the developer of the previously approved Ross’ Peak plan and a partner in the Las Soleras residential project. He said the purpose behind Las Soleras remains to create a self-sustaining community that would do more than serve the labor force in that part of town.
“In addition to having the housing and having the retail, the idea is to have a place that will help create new jobs for Santa Fe and New Mexico,” he said. “The idea as it comes forward now is to do something that is well planned and well thought out to serve the community for the next 100 years.”
By: T.S. Last (Albuquerque Journal)
Click here to view source article.
 

Filed Under: All News

Economic Forecast for 2015: Sunny Days with Occasional Cloudy Periods

January 1, 2015 by mcarristo

Looking at 2015, the domestic economic landscape finally looks solid if unspectacular. Unemployment rates should keep falling, house prices are likely to rise by 5%, and despite poor global economic conditions, the American economy will strengthen. Moreover, despite a deep partisan divide in Washington, the government will not close down nor will it fail to pay its bills. In addition, the ongoing improvement in household balance sheets, the improving fiscal health of state and local governments, and the likely rise in capital expenditures by firms, albeit not very large, all but insures better economic growth. The only serious domestic problems are weak wage growth and inflation that is a bit low.
With this in mind, I expect full‐year 2015 GDP to come in at no less than 2.85%, a healthy rise from the expected 2.4% GDP growth experienced in 2014, and the strongest since 2005. As for new housing starts, they should rise by about 14%, with total starts coming in at 1.14 million. For all of 2015, singlefamily starts should total 750,000 up from 640,000, while multifamily starts should hit 390,000, up from 350,000. Housing sales should rise by about 5% and end the year at 5.6 million. Housing inventories should rise by about 200,000 units, to 5.5 months of inventory up from 5.0 months now.
Given the improving labor market, expect net new monthly job growth to average roughly 220,000/month, which while down from 240,000/month in 2014, is excellent given the shrinking size of the working age population. As a result, the unemployment rate should steadily fall from 5.8% today to 5.2% by year end and possibly lower, depending upon the behavior of the labor force participation rate (LFPR). If the LFPR rises, and that would be a good thing, unemployment may end at 5.3%, but if the LFPR falls, an unemployment rate of 5% would not be out of the question.
Inflation will remain completely benign, with overall inflation possibly drifting lower, while core inflation (which excludes food and energy) shows modest upward drift. The combination of anemic growth in Europe and Japan and declining oil, gas and commodity prices will keep the CPI essentially where it is now, slightly below 2%. Add to this declining import prices due to the rising US dollar and slow wage growth, and core personal consumption expenditure inflation, the Feds preferred inflation measure, will not exceed 1.7%, well below their 2% target. This will give the Federal Reserve ample time to slowly raise the federal funds rate from where it is now, between 0% and 0.25%, to 1% by year end, with the first rate rise probably occurring in June. The thing to keep in mind is that this rate rise, the first in a decade, is likely to be accompanied by some stock and bond market volatility.
As a result of faster GDP growth in 2015, 10‐year Treasuries will end the year at 2.7% and 30‐year mortgage rates will probably hover around 4.5% as the yield curve flattens due to faster rising short-term rates. But a combination of slightly easing credit market conditions and increasing consumer spending due to increased employment and rising wages will keep the economy and the housing market on track despite mildly rising interest rates. Finally, I put the chances of a recession in 2015 at 5%. So look forward to steady economic activity in 2015 and fear not rising interest rates.

Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. is President of GraphsandLaughs, LLC and can be reached at Elliot@graphsandlaughs.net. His daily 70 word economics and policy blog can be seen at www.econ70.com.
By: Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. (GraphsandLaughs)
Click here to view source website.

Filed Under: All News

2014 Albuquerque Progress Report

January 1, 2015 by mcarristo

Dear Albuquerque Citizens,
The Albuquerque Progress Report (APR) is issued every two years and shows Albuquerque’s progress toward reaching a set of long-term goals, established with the input of its residents.
Since 1995, our residents have convened every four years to determine and define Albuquerque’s goals. The goals are categorized into eight areas, and each goal is further clarified through positive statements called desired community conditions.
As you know, having goals is important in life. Yet, how do we know if we’re reaching our goals? To answer this question, your Mayor and City Councilors have jointly appointed a citizen group called the Indicators Progress Commission (IPC). Our job is to measure how well Albuquerque is progressing toward its goals, by designing and reporting on indicators that tell us how close we are to achieving each desired community condition.
The report highlights key indicators of progress. In measuring progress, Albuquerque’s latest data is important, but it’s helpful to see the community’s trend over time and how Albuquerque compares to regional peer communities and to the nation at large. The IPC has summarized this information – by goal – with a scorecard. This report can also be viewed online at abqprogess.com.
Keep in mind , the APR measures community-wide progress. While the City of Albuquerque is a primary stakeholder, there are additional stakeholders involved in achieving our eight strategic goals, including schools, universities, health care providers, businesses, other governmental agencies, non-profits and individuals.
Data is an important component of our daily decision making process. In the spirit of transparency and openness, we’ve communicated to you not only those areas where Albuquerque’s trend is desirable, but also where it’s undesirable. If you see areas that ned better indicators, or if you have ideas to improve Albuquerque’s progress toward achieving its goals, please contact us at abqprogress@cabq.gov.
Albuquerque Indicators Progress Commission
Mike Gannon
Ruben Garcia
Elvira Lopez
Ari Macpherson Herring
Sheila Moore
Dawn Reed
Karen Ross
Frank Roth
Patricia Selcher
Sherrie Trezza
Click here to view full report.
By: The Indicators Progress Commission (City of Albuquerque)
Click here to view source website.

Filed Under: All News

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