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Archives for October 2019

CRE Lenders Try to Hold On to Underwriting Discipline to Avoid Future Refi Risk

October 8, 2019 by CARNM

In a market with high demand for new loans, lenders are trying to structure deals with an easy exit at maturity.
The drop in interest rates has been great news for borrowers, with low cost of capital that is effectively giving them more buying power. Yet, for the most part, lenders are keeping borrowers in check on leverage and structuring deals with an eye on an easy exit at maturity.
Lenders learned some hard lessons in the last recession that are now being put to work to mitigate future refinancing risk. “We’re nowhere near the same place that we were back before the Great Financial Crisis,” says Tom Genetti, a managing director at capital services provider Berkadia. “I think the discipline being shown in the marketplace today is substantially higher. There is real equity in these deals, and no one is allowed to put in fluff or big fees to make their (equity) look bigger than it should be.”
There’s a lot of data that goes into refinance tests, and that data definitely helps the lender get comfortable with the refi risk coming out in the future, adds Jeffrey Erxleben, executive vice president, regional managing director with NorthMarq in Dallas. The guiding principal these days is underwriting a long-term loan at a debt service coverage ratio (DSCR) of 1.25x. Depending on the asset and underlying economics in terms of purchase price and valuation, that 1.25x usually covers leverage on the top end at 75 percent loan-to-value (LTV) and 60-65 percent for coastal assets, Erxleben notes. “I think that combination of having that cash equity, along with the supportive market data and historical performance of the markets that those long-term lenders are in, gets them comfortable with that refi test risk,” he says.

In some cases, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are looking at the risk profile on a deal and requiring a higher DSCR of 1.30x, adds Genetti. “So, even the agencies are looking at things a lot closer, and there is a concerted effort to make sure that deals are getting underwritten properly,” he says.

Keeping CMBS leverage in check

Fitch Ratings recently raised the question of future refinancing risk in an article that it published on Lower Interest Rates Should Not Equal More Leverage in CMBS. Fitch researchers noted that an increase in leverage in CMBS loans, leaving DSCRs at their current levels, would make the loans more susceptible to refinance risk at maturity due to the increased debt.
The focus on refi risk was likely triggered by Fitch analysis that shows loans getting done at very low rates today. Among the roughly 48,000 CMBS loans originated between 1995 and 2007 in Fitch-rated multi-borrower transactions, only 1.7 percent were originated with a mortgage rate below 5.0 percent, and only 0.3 percent had a rate below 4.5 percent. In contrast, close to 100 percent of loans in recent CMBS transactions presented to Fitch have mortgage rates below 5.0 percent and pool-wide averages are below 4.0 percent.
Effectively, nearly every loan Fitch has recently reviewed has a mortgage rate well below the historical data set used by the agency to back-test its rating criteria and rating model. Fitch noted that it is factoring in those low rates and future refi risk when stress-testing loans by using a model that blends the actual coupon with a stressed refinance coupon.

IO loans land on the hot seat

One potential wild card is how record low interest rates might increase refinancing risk specific to the growing volume of interest only (IO) CMBS loans. CMBS players have used IO loans to distinguish themselves in a highly competitive market.
“We have seen greater than 50 percent of the loans in our deals have IO as an option for the borrower,” says Geoffrey Caan, managing director, U.S. fixed income, at Sun Life Investment Management. “In one sense, you’re not amortizing down the loan. So, in 10 years it is potentially riskier as the loan-to-value on the loan—outside of any appreciation in the property—hasn’t really improved.” That being said, lenders are underwriting to IO and still maintaining a fairly conservative stance on other underwriting characteristics, he adds.

The buzz on full-term IO loans sounds awfully aggressive until you realize that the going in loan-to-value is being set at an estimated exit loan-to-value 10 years from now, says Genetti. “Lenders don’t mind giving IO, because they’re basically pre-amortizing the loan on the front end by having a de-leveraged transaction,” he notes. Lenders are also more conservative on leverage in those full-term IO loans. They are not offering 75 to 80 percent leverage on 10-year IO loans, and the more aggressive interest rates are going to be reserved for deals that are 50-65 percent levered, adds Genetti.
Even those full-term IO loans that look like they have achieved 75 percent leverage are more like 68-72 percent when you dig deeper into the underwriting economics, such as using a more conservative valuation, says Erxleben. There are always examples of outliers in the market. However, in those cases where lenders are willing to stretch out with higher leverage, it is usually because of some mitigating factor, such as the strength of the sponsor or strength of the market, he says.
Another aspect that shows that lenders are being disciplined is that there are different levels of IO in CMBS depending on the property type. Office properties have more IO loans, whereas assets that are perceived to carry more risk, such as hotels and retail, tend to have fewer IO loans being done. B-piece buyers are also providing an additional stop gap on risk by scrutinizing the quality of loans within pools. CMBS lenders are taking that to heart and not doing deals they know will likely get kicked out of the pool, notes Genetti.
By: Beth Mattson-Teig (NREI)
Click here to view source article

Filed Under: All News

How Well Do Owners Work With Property Managers?

October 8, 2019 by CARNM

Property managers are developing strategies to drive value, but are owners and developers listening?

Property managers are focused on driving value in apartment buildings through tenant retention and tenant services, and in this booming market, property owners are looking for management companies that will take the reigns. However, property owners have different needs and end goals, and want to partner with property managers to create a co-strategy.
“Property owners hire a property management company to manage every aspect of their multifamily investment and this often includes creating and executing a successful resident retention strategy for their community,” Debbie D. Willis, president and designated broker for P.B. Bell, tells GlobeSt.com. “Some property owners are very hands on and want to be a part of creating the strategy, while others would rather their management company take the lead.”
Whether property managers have a more hands on or hands off client, they are always focused on meeting tenant needs as a way to ultimately drive value at the property. “It’s the ability to adapt to the wants and needs of both types of owners in which you’ll find success,” explains Willis. “Property owners expect you to take great care of their property, and ultimately, that means taking care of the residents within the community as well.”
Capital investment in tenant services can also be an area of disconnect between managers and owners, however, Willis says that there are a number of low-cost ways to serve tenants. “Keeping residents long term can cost as much or as little as your budget allows,” says Willis. “There are many things you can to do keep your residents happy and living at your community longer without spending any money. Residents want and expect their leasing staff to provide excellent and responsive customer service. They want maintenance requests to be completed promptly and accurately, grounds surrounding their apartment to be maintained, and the amenity spaces within the community to be kept clean. They want to be communicated with, listened to, and they want to feel like you care about their well being.”
Sometimes, tenant service also overlaps with customer service at the day-to-day property level, and a friendly staff can also drive tenant retention. “Even just remembering someone’s name and saying it when you see them can make a huge impact in the success of retaining residents,” says Willis. “You can have luxury amenities, fancy resident events, and renewal gifts, but at the end of the day, residents just want to be treated with common courtesy.”
By: Kelsi Maree Borland (GloneSt)
Click here to view source article

Filed Under: All News

US Unemployment Rate Hits a 50-year Low Even as Hiring Slows

October 4, 2019 by CARNM

The U.S. unemployment rate fell to 3.5% in September, the lowest level in nearly five decades, even though employers appeared to turn more cautious and slowed their hiring.
The economy added a modest 136,000 jobs, enough to likely ease worries that an economy weakened by the U.S.-China trade war and tepid global growth might be edging toward a potential recession. The government on Friday also revised up its estimate of job growth in July and August by a combined 45,000.
Still, a drop-off in the pace of hiring compared with last year points to rising uncertainty among employers about the job market and the economy in the face of President Donald Trump’s numerous trade conflicts. Pay growth has also weakened, reflecting the hesitance of employers to step up wages.
“The September jobs report sent some conflicting signals, but the big picture remains one of a labor market — and an economy — whose growth is downshifting but not collapsing,” said Michael Feroli, an economist at JPMorgan Chase.
The comparatively sluggish hiring data makes it likely that the Federal Reserve later this month will cut rates for the third time this year to try to help sustain the expansion. At the same time, the drop in the unemployment rate from 3.7% may embolden some Fed officials who have resisted rate cuts.
The U.S. economy is “in a good place,” Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said Friday in remarks in Washington. “Our job is to keep it there as long as possible.”
Investors appeared pleased that the jobs report at least suggested that the economy remains resilient for now. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up nearly 300 points in afternoon trading.
Excluding government hiring, private-sector job gains over the past three months have slowed to an average of 119,000 a month, the weakest showing in seven years.
And despite ultra-low unemployment, average wages slipped in September, the Labor Department said. Hourly pay rose just 2.9% from a year earlier, below the 3.4% year-over-year gain earlier this year.
Julia Pollak, a labor economist at jobs marketplace ZipRecruiter, said the pay that employers are advertising has declined this year after rising sharply in 2018. And she noted that the number of part-time workers who would prefer full-time work has risen over the past two months.
Those trends “show that employers are increasingly risk-averse as global uncertainty and recession fears rise,” Pollak said.
Trump has imposed tariffs on a majority of Chinese imports and is threatening to impose taxes on the rest of them on Dec. 15, which would likely escalate prices for consumers and slow spending.
Adding to global economic pressures, the United Kingdom is nearing an Oct. 31 deadline for a potentially chaotic exit from the European Union. And Germany appears on the brink of recession.
Tom Lix, the CEO and founder of Cleveland Whiskey, which distills bourbon and rye whiskies, said the trade war has shut down markets that his company was developing in Europe and China. This has forced him to postpone hiring and a planned expansion.
“We were going to build a new building, and add a restaurant and bar, which would have expanded our employment significantly,” Lix said.
He had also expected to add three distillers to his staff of 15. But that was before Europe and China imposed retaliatory tariffs on U.S. bourbon — after Trump had raised import taxes on their goods. Europe had accounted for about 15% of Lix’s sales before the tariffs took effect.
“All of our European connections and all of our Chinese connections — we’re not doing business with them right now,” he said.
The weakest sector of the U.S. economy — manufacturing, which is likely already in recession — cut 2,000 jobs in September. At the same time, retailers shed 11,400 jobs, and employment in mining and logging was unchanged.
The big gains last month were in health care, which added 41,400 jobs, and professional and business services, which include such higher-paying areas as engineering and accounting but also lower-paying temp work. That sector added 34,000 positions.
Friday’s jobs data underscored the benefits of a hot job market for lower-paid Americans and traditionally disadvantaged workers. The unemployment rate for workers without high school diplomas fell to 4.8%, the lowest level on records dating to 1992. The rate for Latinos fell to 3.9%, also a record low.
Amy Glaser, senior vice president at Adecco USA, a staffing firm, says companies are still willing to raise pay for blue collar workers. Some are also paying retention and signing bonuses and in some cases double pay for overtime.
“We’re still seeing strong demand, we’re still seeing more job opportunities out there than candidates,” Glaser said.
The employment figures carry more weight than usual because worries about the health of the economy are mounting. A measure of factory activity fell in September to its lowest level in more than a decade, while a similar gauge of the economy’s vast services sector slowed sharply in September, falling to its lowest point in three years.
The job market is the economy’s main bulwark. As long as hiring is solid enough to keep the unemployment rate from rising, most Americans will likely remain confident enough to spend, offsetting other drags and propelling the economy forward.
But a slump in hiring or a rise in the unemployment rate in coming months could discourage consumers from spending as freely as they otherwise might during the holiday shopping season.
Consumers are still mostly optimistic, and their spending has kept the economy afloat this year. But they may be growing more cautious. Consumer confidence dropped sharply in September, according to the Conference Board, a business research group. And their spending in August slowed.
By: Christopher Rugaber (ABQ Journal)
Click here to view source article

Filed Under: All News

October 2019 CCIM Deal Making Session Properties

October 2, 2019 by CARNM

Thanks to all of the brokers, sponsors, and guests who attended the October 2019 CCIM NM Deal Making Session & Forum and to those who shared their properties.

Click here to view source PDF.
Click here to view the Thank Yous.

Name Property, City Type Price
1. Keith Meyer, CCIM, SIOR
Jim Wible, CCIM
SWQ Central Ave & Unser Blvd
Albuquerque
Land $6-$18 PSF
2. Debbie Dupes, CCIM
Cheryl Hardt
Sal Perdomo
235-239 Elm St NE
Albuquerque
Office $2,250,000
3. Dave Hill, CCIM
DJ Brigman
1656 US Highway 60/84
Clovis
Industrial $1,800,000
4. Dave Hill, CCIM
DJ Brigman
2220 Grande Blvd SE, Ste B/E
Rio Rancho
Office $450,000
5. Larry Illfeld, CCIM, ALC 1801-1869 Old US 66
Edgewood
Land $1,925,000
6. Austin Tidwell 10921 Central Ave NE
Albuquerque
Land $799,000
7. Riley McKee
Alexandra Pulliam
9916-9932 Bell & 9932 Trumbull
Albuquerque
Industrial $1,090,000
8. Shelly Branscom, CCIM
Alexandra Pulliam
SEQ Unser & Montaño NW
Albuquerque
Land $165,000 -$245,000
9. Dave Hill, CCIM
Shelly Branscom, CCIM
111 Lujan Rd
Los Lunas
Industrial $370,000

Filed Under: All News

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