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Archives for February 2022

To Fill Empty Retail Space, Landlords Tap Doctors and Dentists

February 23, 2022 by CARNM

Health care providers are increasingly opening offices and clinics in street-level storefronts, malls and shopping centers, taking advantage of rents depressed by the pandemic.

The next time you get your teeth cleaned or blood pressure checked, you may be doing so in a space once outfitted with face creams and frying pans.

Health care providers are increasingly choosing former stores for their offices and clinics, in a trend known as medtail — a reflection of the medical industry’s migration to retail properties.

The pandemic has accelerated their embrace of retail space. Taking advantage of depressed rents, medical providers are opening facilities in storefronts on city streets and moving into malls and shopping centers in suburban and rural areas, sometimes occupying the hulking shells vacated by big-box and department stores.

In the past, landlords might not have welcomed such tenants — some just didn’t want sick people around their properties, experts say — but they are increasingly seeking them out to fill vacancies and help generate foot traffic that may benefit the other occupants. This has been especially true for health care providers that brand themselves as so-called wellness companies, adopting the look and feel of consumer-oriented retailers.

“The retailization of health care has really exploded,” said Barrie Scardina, a retail expert for Cushman & Wakefield.

The medtail concept has been gaining traction for some time. Today, about 20 percent of leased medical space is in retail buildings, up from about 16 percent in 2010, according to data from the research firm CoStar Group.

But it remains to be seen whether health care tenants can put a meaningful dent in retail vacancies resulting from the rise of e-commerce, a swing that has been compounded by the pandemic. Health care start-ups face many hurdles, including a competitive environment, high renovation costs and fickle landlords.

“It’s challenging to predict,” said Carri W. Chan, the faculty director of the health care and pharmaceutical management program at the Columbia Business School.

Of course, many health care providers still choose to remain on hospital campuses and in medical office buildings, and some — eyeglass stores with optometrists on staff, for example — have long occupied retail settings.

But the proliferation of urgent care centers over the past two decades has helped broaden the idea of where consumers can seek medical attention. Such “doc-in-the-box” facilities — which fill the gap between a visit to a primary care physician and one to a hospital emergency room — tend to be near where people live and shop. Their retail-style signage and branding help them fit in.

At the same time, some pharmacy and supermarket chains have been adding walk-in clinics, enabling customers to get a flu shot or strep test while picking up prescriptions or groceries. Such retail clinics are typically staffed with physician assistants or nurse practitioners (hence the nickname “nurse-in-a-box”). CVS, for instance, began opening clinics in its stores in 2005 and currently has more than 1,100.

But now a range of providers — offering services like cosmetic dermatology, dental care, physical therapy and senior wellness — are seeking retail real estate. They are opening in street-level storefronts and vacated department stores at a time when people might be uneasy about going to the hospital, which has become associated with coronavirus outbreaks, but are obtaining medical attention in nontraditional places by getting Covid shots at convention centers and PCR tests on city sidewalks.

“Being able to go into a retail environment closer to home, a smaller facility, felt safer and more convenient and also felt newer and cleaner,” said Matthew A. Coursen, an executive managing director at JLL, a commercial real estate services company.

Tend, a boutique dental chain, has been opening offices in retail space in urban areas, where rents can be 20 percent below prepandemic levels. The company selects real estate in much the same way a retailer does — figuring out foot traffic patterns, demographic data and transportation options.

Once it picks a site, Tend rolls out furnishings and finishes in the new space that match its other locations, down to the swirly green and white wallpaper meant to evoke mouthwash. The company spends between $1.1 million and $1.6 million on each office, said Andy Grover, a co-founder and the chief development officer of the company, which operates in four metropolitan areas.

For landlords hit by store closures during the pandemic, well-funded health care providers, which tend to sign long-term leases, are suddenly desirable.

“As the landlord thinks about what will happen if we ever go through a crisis again, they want things that won’t close — grocery stores, pharmacies and medical facilities,” said Ms. Scardina of Cushman & Wakefield.

Some of these dynamics are playing out in suburban malls, where health care providers are moving into spaces vacated when retailers consolidated or went out of business. The providers consider malls attractive because they are familiar to residents, easy to get to and have ample parking. The open floor plates of former big-box stores are another plus.

By early 2020, nearly seven in 10 adults in the United States were visiting a health care provider in a shopping center, enclosed mall or strip mall, according to a survey by ICSC, a trade group representing owners of such properties.

Thirty-two enclosed malls across the country have health care providers taking up substantial square footage or, in some cases, the entire property, said Ellen Dunham-Jones, a professor at Georgia Tech who has been tracking the retrofitting of ailing malls. Some of the providers are expanding university medical systems.

The University of Rochester in upstate New York is creating a $227 million, 350,000-square-foot ambulatory orthopedic facility at The Marketplace Mall in Henrietta, four miles from the university’s campus. The property, built in 1982, once had four anchor tenants, but one of them, a Sears store, closed in 2019. The overall vacancy rate had risen to 30 percent before the project began, said Jonathan L. Dower, vice president of leasing for Wilmorite, the mall’s owner.

Wilmorite gutted the Sears store and an adjacent portion of the mall to pave the way for the project. The university, aided by architecture firms SLAM and Perkins&Will, is converting the Sears space into an outpatient surgery center, where patients will be able to get knee or hip replacements. The adjacent space will offer physical therapy.

Repurposing existing structures, rather than starting from scratch, reduces construction time and costs, said Scott Hansche, a principal of SLAM. It also is environmentally beneficial to salvage old structures.

The challenges of the conversions include adding natural light to spaces that may be almost entirely enclosed, as well as beefing up plumbing, power and HVAC systems.

One Medical, a membership-based primary care chain with about 125 locations, has been expanding into outdoor shopping centers rather than enclosed malls, said James Goldberg, the chain’s vice president of real estate and development. The company recently opened a branch in a former Chico’s near the Banana Republic and the Pottery Barn at Westfield UTC in San Diego, Calif.

“Landlords are becoming understanding about what tenants we want to be next to,” Mr. Goldberg said.

Some landlords now have health care tenants in mind as they build new properties.

“I do go after them now,” said Dotan Zuckerman, a consultant who handles retail leasing for ground-up mixed-use developments in the Southeast. “In a lot of these big projects, there’s only so much food and beverage you can do.”

Source: “To Fill Empty Retail Space, Landlords Tap Doctors and Dentists”

Filed Under: All News

Strap In, Building Materials Prices Head Up Again

February 23, 2022 by CARNM

Leaders in January were lumber and paint.

At this point in the building supply chain miseries, if it’s any month, this must be a time for rising prices. That’s what January brought, according to the National Association of Home Builders.

The organization reported that residential construction costs were up 3.6% in January 2022. That didn’t include energy prices, which, as oil again nears $100 a barrel, promise additional pain.

The materials increase figure was not seasonally adjusted. Economics often make adjustments to account for regular variations, smoothing a data series for a better sense of trends. However, when changes rapidly move out of prior patterns, determining seasonal adjustments becomes difficult at best. Non-seasonally adjust figures can offer more insight for businesses in such situations.

Rapid and unpredictable changes are exactly where the industry has been. Back in October 2021, experts were starting to suggest that lumber prices might be rising to a new normal. By the end of last year, higher prices combined with volatility were the holiday present. As Mike Wisnefski, CEO of lumber digital marketplace MaterialsXchange, told GlobeSt.com at the time, if prices remained high through mid-January, they could kick up and “could go much higher because people won’t be able to hold off” buying what they need. More demand would act like a financial elevator for commodities.

Clearly prices stayed around longer than the middle of last month. NAHB said that January’s producer price index from the Bureau of Labor Statistics pointed to a 25.4% jump in the software lumber used in framing. Paint, both indoor and outdoor, was up 9%.

Overall, building material prices increased by 20.3% year over year. The PPI has been up 8.4% over the last four months.

Material prices are a portion of construction costs. So are services and their contribution to residential construction were up 2.9% in January and 1.3% the month before. “The index is 8.9% higher than it was a year prior and 24.1% higher than the January 2020 reading,” the NAHB’s site stated.

There was a bit of relief for non-residential construction, as steel prices came down 1.9% in January, the first drop in 18 months. However, the comfort is small as prices are still roughly double those of a year ago.

Ready-to-mix concrete saw a 1.4% gain in January; gypsum products were at a 23% year-over-year increase.

Many of these gains are significantly higher than the country’s overall inflation numbers.

Source: “Strap In, Building Materials Prices Head Up Again“

Filed Under: All News

Asking Multifamily Rents Rose 15% in January

February 22, 2022 by CARNM

This jump reflects the largest annual increase since February 2020.

Asking multifamily rents rose a staggering 15% in January nationwide to an average of $1,891, according to new research from Redfin, a jump that reflects the largest annual increase since February 2020. Rents were up 0.7% month over month and 15.2% year over year.

The national median monthly mortgage payment for buyers also climbed 25% year-over-year to $1,595. That’s also the biggest increase Redfin has noted since the firm began tracking such data. Payments are up 3% over December figures.

“Moving right now is expensive, whether you’re renting or buying,” said Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather. “One of the only ways to avoid high housing costs is to move somewhere cheaper, but the list of places that are truly inexpensive is shrinking. Rising mortgage rates are squeezing more Americans out of the for-sale market, which will likely put increasing pressure on rents in the coming months.”

Portland, Austin, and Newark lead the US as metros with the fastest-rising year over year rents, with increases of 39%, 35%, and 33%, respectively.  Rounding out the top ten are Nassau County, New York; New York City; New Brunswick, NJ; Tampa; Fort Lauderdale; West Palm Beach; and Miami. Every market in the top 10 had rent growth of 31% or more over 2020 figures.

Just two metro areas Redfin tracks saw rents fall in January over prior year figures: Kansas City, Mo., and Milwaukee.

Rents are expected to continue to climb in 2022: the National Association of Realtors predicts that “even if net absorption is normalizing, absorption (demand) is still outpacing deliveries (supply) across all classes of apartments.

Vacancy also remains tight, especially for Class B and C units, according to NAR economist Scholastica Gay Cororaton.

“Amid elevated inflation, rents will continue to rise strongly in 2022 although at below double-digit pace,” she predicts in a recent analysis.

US Census Bureau data shows that the rental vacancy rate hit 5.6% in 2021 Q4, the lowest rate in nearly four decades.  And Costar data tracking just multifamily units estimates the rate to be closer to 4.5%

Source: “Asking Multifamily Rents Rose 15% in January“

Filed Under: All News

2021 CRE Investment Hit a Record $746B

February 22, 2022 by CARNM

But for a clear look it’s important to get beyond pure dollar values.

CBRE released its 2021 US commercial real estate investment volume and announced a record $746 billion, up by 86% from 2020. The fourth quarter of 2021 also saw a record $296 billion, increasing 90% year over year.

For a pre-pandemic comparison, volume in 2019 was $542.4 billion, down 1.8%, and Q4 that year was $152.7 billion, down 8.1% year over year.

There’s been a lot of evidence throughout 2021 that the annual tally would be spectacular, with pandemic rebounds, volumes of cash sloshing over the sides of bank accounts as they looked to be invested, and concerns about inflation and the need for hedging. But it’s good to remember that these factors also drove up prices and that the actual deal volume could be different.

Multifamily was the hot sector in 2021 at $136 billion for the fourth quarter and $315 billion for the year, giving it a 45.9% share of the quarter and 42.2% of the year.

For the whole of 2021 across all types of investment, industrial had a 21.5% share; office, 18.3%; 9.9% for retail; and hotel at 5.7%.

By market, greater Los Angeles was at the top. Investment volume there was $58 billion, with New York coming in second at $49 billion and the $41 billion in Dallas coming in third. The fastest growth was in Las Vegas, where $9.7 billion was a 231.8% year-over-year increase. Houston saw 190.5% growth overall at $25.8 billion, while South Florida’s $27.9 billion was a 178.6% jump.

Multifamily saw the fastest growth in Las Vegas, with a 394.3% year-over-year jump. Next was Houston at 379.0% and South Florida’s 240.3%.

In office investment, the top three regions for growth were Austin (410.4%), Richmond (359.5%), and South Florida (277.7%).

Growth rates in industrial were lower, which may owe to the massive rush to build and spend in 2020 during the pandemic, raising the question for investors of whether growth could continue to lag, or if it might be a case of prices topping out to some degree. Top three regions: St. Louis (144.9%), Sacramento (143.8%), and Austin (142.5%).

Year-over-year retail investment was generally higher than industrial, with Seattle seeing 248.8%, Phoenix at 217.8%, and Houston, 210.6%

Volumes of hotel investment were overall lower, but the growth was remarkably higher in Seattle (1612.0%), Tampa (1284.8%), and Florida’s panhandle (1181.3%).

Big sources for cross-border investment were Canada’s $20.9 billion and $15.2 billion from Singapore. The two countries were far and away the biggest sources.

Final quarter numbers on cap rates show that the “everything is driving lower and lower” discussion might be over reactive. Even warehouse industrial saw cap rates of 5.47, not the “threes” many suggest as averages. Multifamily caps were lower, but still in the high fours. The highest: hotels and an average 8.33.

Source: “2021 CRE Investment Hit a Record $746B“

Filed Under: All News

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