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Archives for April 2022

Proposed SEC Climate Disclosures Could Require a Heavy Lift for Some CRE Firms

April 18, 2022 by CARNM

Investors would welcome more consistent reporting of climate risk information. But commercial real estate companies affected by the rule are concerned about the added cost and strain on resources in additional reporting.

Many in the commercial real estate industry have already embraced voluntary ESG reporting. Although the final language is far from being finalized, it is clear that early adopters already factoring ESG considerations into their reporting (which includes virtually all U.S. publicly-traded REITs) could have a leg up in meeting the new rules from the SEC around mandatory climate-related disclosures, once those are finalized, potentially as early as 2024.

The SEC released its proposed “Enhancement and Standardization of Climate-Related Disclosures for Investors” rule for public comment on March 21st. If finalized, it would become the first rule requiring all companies registered with the SEC to report, measure and quantify material risks related to climate change in their registration statements and periodic filings. Specifically, the rule addresses reporting on Scope 1, Scope 2 and Scope 3 emissions, as well as physical risk related to climate-related events and transition risk related to compliance of federal, state and local climate laws.

The rule would have a dramatic effect on the commercial real estate industry, and it is drawing a mixed response from industry participants. On one hand, investors would welcome more consistent reporting of climate risk information. On the other hand, commercial real estate companies affected by the rule are concerned about the added cost and strain on resources in additional reporting.

“I would be very surprised if we didn’t see some moderate pushback from some commercial real estate folks as it is a very broad-scoped rule,” says Josh Richards, corporate director of ESG at Transwestern. “It is going to be valuable to the industry, but I believe there is going to be a lot of investment that goes along with this,” he says. People are going to be paying close attention to what that price tag is and understanding over the short- and long-term exactly what the impact is going to be, he adds.

ESG requirements have already become a big focus for institutional fund managers and companies raising money from institutions such as insurance companies, pension funds and sovereign wealth funds. “That demand for data from an investor’s standpoint has been there for years now, and it has really hit a critical time in commercial real estate. This rule just broadens the market of companies that need to address these issues,” says Tony Liou, president at Partner Energy, a division of Los Angeles-based consulting firm Partner Engineering and Science Inc.

The main intent of the SEC rule is to provide transparency and consistency for investors around information related to emissions and climate-related risks. Current reporting is voluntary and lack of standards means it varies from company to company. Some firms publish information in annual reports or separate ESG or sustainability reports. “I have read a lot of these reports. There’s no standardization of reporting, and everyone tries to make themselves out in the best light possible,” says Liou. “So, any standardization would allow for better transparency and understanding of performance to make decisions, and that’s the key from the investor’s standpoint.”

Demand for apples-to-apples information

Real estate investors have been frustrated by the lack of standards around ESG. Current reporting is a little bit of an “alphabet soup,” notes Uma Pattarkine, senior investment strategy analyst and global ESG lead at Center Square Investment Management. There are several different voluntary reporting disclosure and guidance frameworks, such as the Global Reporting Initiative (GRI), Global Real Estate Sustainability Benchmark (GRESB) and Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) among others. “What that means for investors is that you effectively have a little bit of information overload, while at the same time not being able to get the information that you need consistently across your entire investment universe,” she says.

More companies are voluntarily reporting on ESG metrics, including data on energy consumption and Scope 1, Scope 2 and, on a more limited basis, even Scope 3 emissions. However, companies are at very different stages in measuring and reporting. Some companies are ahead of the curve, while others are further behind in their ability to put the data together to meet the proposed disclosure requirements. There are some companies that don’t yet measure emissions, and it will take time for them to build out infrastructure at the property level to measure emissions and then compile information for the portfolio, notes Pattarkine. “For those that are leaders in the space, it will be a continuation of what they have been doing, while it will really impact the laggards and hopefully push them along this decarbonization journey that we all need to go on,” she says.

Having an SEC rule that aims to create standardized reporting and allows investors to compare information on more of an “apples-to-apples” basis across companies will be tremendously helpful for investors, says Pattarkine. That being said, the rule that is currently proposed focuses on things that are material to certain companies. “So, you are still going to have a little bit of an apples and oranges comparison as you think about what types of disclosures might be coming out of different sectors and different markets,” she says. For example, a green building certification would not be relevant for a cell tower company, whereas it would be very material for an office company. “We’re definitely moving in the right direction as it relates to creating some sort of a standard or minimum framework,” she says. At the same time, companies are still trying to decipher some of the qualitative aspects and gray areas within the rule itself, especially as it relates to materiality, she adds.

Understanding reporting requirements

As outlined in the Real Estate Roundtable’s fact sheet, the SEC rule would require more rigorous reporting of Scope 1, Scope 2 and, potentially, Scope 3 emissions. Scope 1 looks at everything within a company’s power to control, which is largely utility bills at a property. Scope 2 factors in costs associated with the production and distribution of that energy. Does that energy come from a coal-fired plant, a wind farm or a combination of sources? “By quantifying those things in Scope 2, it really tells you more about where your energy is coming from and the total footprint of that energy consumption,” says Richards.

Per the current rule, Scope 3 emissions reporting would only be required for something that would be “materially relevant” to a business. Although it is not clear how that materiality will be interpreted, for real estate owners, Scope 3 typically involves reporting on emissions for space not directly under their control, such as triple net lease spaces where the tenant is in charge of paying utilities. It also could relate to reporting on the carbon footprint of development projects, which would include digging into the embodied carbon, or carbon emissions associated with the manufacturing and transportation of an item, such as steel, timber and concrete.

“Scope 3 is going to be looking a lot more at the products you use, services, transportation of goods. All of that can be a lot more difficult to quantify. So, it’s definitely something that is going to be a heavy lift for certain industries,” says Richards.

Beyond emissions, the new rule would require additional reporting around material “physical risks” to buildings and other assets posed by climate change. Some of the smaller companies might be more challenged by this reporting requirement, because not everyone has a risk expert on staff, notes Richards. Companies also would be required to report on “transition risks” such as those that arise from regulatory compliance costs associated with federal, state and local climate laws.

Broadly, the rule will require disclosures about the governance for climate-related risks and the appropriate risk-management processes that companies have in place to deal with those risks. That reporting might relate to a property located in a flood zone, or perhaps a property location in a city such as New York or Washington D.C. that will need to make investments to comply with new climate laws. “It’s going to require a lot of qualitative description of how a company is really managing their sustainability and decarbonization journey,” says Pattarkine.

Laying the groundwork

The SEC has set a fairly aggressive timeline. Compliance would start in 2024 (covering FY 2023) for those very large companies, SEC registrants with a global value of $700 million or more, that will need to report Scope 1 and 2 emissions, and then phase-in for smaller companies. Reporting on Scope 3 emissions will phase-in starting in 2025 (covering FY 2024 emissions). “Especially for some of the laggards in the industry, hopefully this kickstarts developing some of the infrastructure, processes, resources and teams they need to start managing this in a more robust way,” says Pattarkine.

The steps companies need to take to prepare depends on their starting point. Those companies that are already following voluntary reporting frameworks, such as GRESB and TCFD, are already on the path to meet the new reporting requirements. Real estate companies affected by the proposed reporting rule will need to really understand the baseline measure of emissions at the asset level, as well as have the infrastructure and tools in place to collect and aggregate data. There will need to be a lot of materiality and life cycle assessments conducted at the asset level.

Many real estate companies are already reporting on Scope 1 emissions. Where a lot of the industry will focus over the next year or so is on Scope 2 emissions, notes Richards. It will take quite a bit of time to capture that Scope 2 emissions, particularly for the larger property owners, he says. Beyond that, another big focus for companies will be understanding what is and what isn’t material. That materiality will not only be an issue in understanding Scope 3 reporting, but also in understanding reporting requirements related to “physical risks” to assets posed by climate change.

Companies need to collect, understand and manage data, and they also need to be able to act on the data to drive change. “I think good fiduciaries and good managers of real estate are already doing this,” says Liou. However, there also are some unknowns that are concerning to the industry and creating some pushback. By bringing more data points to light on things such as exposure to climate-related weather events, how is the industry going to value that information? Could information on physical risks and transition risks negatively impact values and capital flows into some companies? “Do these data points impact real estate adversely or positively, those are the types of things that introduce some uncertainty to the way that real estate is going to be evaluated and managed,” he says.

Source: “Proposed SEC Climate Disclosures Could Require a Heavy Lift for Some CRE Firms“

Filed Under: All News

Multifamily Investors Eye New Challenges After Banner Growth

April 18, 2022 by CARNM

And how long can renters pay for ever-increasing rents?

The multifamily market continued apace through 2021 as the investment champion, driven by a combination of strong demand, easy money and lack of supply. No real surprise at the general observation, given data from various sources throughout the year.

But according to the 2022 RCM Lightbox Investor Sentiment Report, multifamily had a year that shredded previous activity, and that’s after some recent years of record activity. Not only was the sales volume of $326.8 billion a record, but it nearly matched the $337.2 billion of 2019 and 2020 combined.

The coming 2022 has some positive features going for it.

“The multifamily sector is heading toward Q2 of 2022 with significant tailwinds given the continued shifts in housing formation and strong demand for rental properties, along with the shortfall in housing production,” the report notes. “Homebuilders are building to a higher price point and creating a greater delta between the pricing of single-family homes and apartment rents. This creates challenges for home buyers—and an ideal scenario for apartment owners to increase rents.”

However, in addition to those tailwinds are some headwinds: inflation, more hawkish Fed actions, and the ongoing supply chain mess. Inflation bites in everywhere, whether tenant pocketbooks or the cost of building supplies, with the construction producer price index for multifamily at 20.1% year over year.

Fed attempts to moderate inflation mean higher interest rates, so financing projects becomes more expensive, as does purchasing existing properties when factoring in costs of maintenance, repair, and potentially future value-add additions. Some respondents to the study mentioned how many properties had already seen partial renovations after transactions during the last 10 to 15 years, so basic unit interior improvements are no longer enough. “Today, elements of a value-add program likely include enhancing residents’ experience, technology updates, comprehensive unit interior upgrades and driving online awareness and reputation,” the report noted.

The mark-to-market abilities of the market could moderate some of that, with the report speculating on the continued rise of rents, with new construction also happening in high-growth areas like the Sun Belt and West.

However, the report doesn’t note that there is a point where many consumers can’t afford further rent increases, just as during the run-up to the 2008 financial crisis involved people trading up to bigger houses, as experts kept suggesting, even though their incomes didn’t keep pace. How long rent increases can continue without millions of consumers hitting a wall is unclear.

Source: “Multifamily Investors Eye New Challenges After Banner Growth“

Filed Under: All News

When Will Investors Finally Balk at High Prices, Low Cap Rates?

April 18, 2022 by CARNM

Buying a CRE asset at a sub-5% cap rate is like buying a tech stock at a 100-price earnings ratio.

Treasury rates are rising rapidly with the 10-Year treasury currently at 2.72% and up substantially from the pandemic low of .65% two years ago. A conundrum in this CRE market is that cap rates so far, have not increased to reflect the increase in the risk-free rate of the 10-Year Treasury note, which is used as the base rate for cap rates. Instead of rising, cap rates have compressed further, especially for apartment and industrial properties. In the “hot’ Sunbelt markets, many newer apartments are trading at sub-5% cap rates and industrial properties at sub-4% cap rates. To be blunt, buying a CRE asset at a sub-5% cap rate is like buying a tech stock at a 100-price earnings ratio. Investors may get away with this for a while, but it will eventually lead to lower returns and even a loss of equity.

The cap rate is the property’s net operating income divided by the purchase price or value. Another way to determine the cap rate is to use the cap rate formula, which is; the risk-free rate (10-Year Treasury rate) plus a risk premium (typically between 3% and 10% and in today’s pricey market I use 7%) less the growth rate in rents, which currently averages about 3.5% for apartments and industrial properties. The formula cap rate is then, 2.72% + 7% – 3.5% or 6.22%. This is an average cap rate and needs to be further adjusted for the location and property type but even for apartments and industrial properties, the average cap rates should be in the range of 5% to 6% and not at pricey rates of 3.5% to 4%. The key question is when will the market begin to balk at high selling prices and low cap rates? I believe that this is beginning to happen now. The first signs of this value adjustment will be deals falling through, when buyers cancel letters of intent or purchase contracts and deal activity, which has been at record levels, slows down considerably.

It usually takes CRE sellers about nine months to a year to adjust to the market price of their real estate properties. Many properties that will come on the market for sale during the next several months, will have asking cap rates of 4%-5% and it will take the sellers about a year to adjust those cap rates because of higher interest rates and buyers’ reluctance to pay the high asking price. Another important issue is the amount of money that CRE private equity, wealth managers and private REITs have to invest in the US. These sums are currently over $250 billion and many of these firms will continue to buy properties at low cap rates to “put the funds to work” instead of sitting on the sidelines until cap rates begin to rise. Many of these firms will lose or forfeit their capital if the funds are not invested within a one-to-three-year time period.

All CRE property owners will see their portfolios decline in value if the assets were purchased during the last few years. However, since many are private entities, instead of selling today, they will extend the holding period and enjoy higher rents and partner distributions. Public REITs that are “marked to market” daily will initially see their stocks drop due to these higher cap rates, but then stock prices will begin to increase as they are able to buy new properties at lower prices and higher returns.

Source: “When Will Investors Finally Balk at High Prices, Low Cap Rates?“

Filed Under: All News

CRE Borrowers Move Toward Alternative Lending Amid Inflation, Rising Rates

April 16, 2022 by CARNM

Also, floating rate deals grow while demand for fixed-rate loans drops.

The go-to financing choices of CRE investors and developers are shifting as rising interest rates chase inflation amid clouds of uncertainty.

“I think it’s just indicative of some of the volatility that’s currently in the market,” David Loo, managing partner of middle-market capital provider Hudson Realty Capital, tells GlobeSt.com. “What’s interesting is I think inflation and the Fed tightening and the spike in rates has caused some confusion in the market and it’s had an impact on how lenders and borrowers are looking at it.”

For example, HUD loans have seen a sharp increase. “We are a qualified HUD lender for healthcare and multifamily assets,” says Loo, pointing to the jump from 2.25% up to 3.7% as of April 11, 2022. “It’s great financing for specific asset classes like multifamily and healthcare. You can get long-term financing self-amortizing over a 30- or 35-year period. But the process can take 3 to 6 months before HUD will even look at your application. For healthcare, it’s a little bit less for HUD to look at your application, but post pandemic, a lot of the healthcare industry hasn’t fully recovered occupancy, which has made things a little more difficult.”

The gamble becomes speculating what fixed-rate loans will be in the near future and what other options might offer an acceptable return with less risk.

“We heard some alternative lenders that also invest in CMBS tell us in the current market they can make more money buying the CMBS bonds than they can originating, so they prefer to wait,” Loo says. This dynamic is somewhat similar to when, in the wake of the financial crisis, banks could park excess reserves with the Fed and get lower interest than lending but with a guarantee of payment.

“The second thing we’re hearing is people just aren’t sure which way the market is, so they’re waiting to see if there are better deals in six months rather than being more competitive for it,” he adds. “They’re investing in investment grade securities. Because they’re investment grade, they can lever those I think pretty quickly.” That allows them to use them as collateral to finance their current positions, which alone is a disturbing thought because it’s saying such companies may not have the ongoing income to remain afloat.

What makes the landscape more unpredictable is varying strategies of borrowers and lenders. “Very sophisticated players come to different conclusions when it comes to the same problem,” says Loo. “Some are active, some are wading through it, and some aren’t sure what to do. I think it will take some time.”

And so, in the meantime, a short-term focus can be useful.

Source: “CRE Borrowers Move Toward Alternative Lending Amid Inflation, Rising Rates“

Filed Under: All News

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