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Archives for January 2023

Impact of Driverless Vehicles on Real Estate: Ethical and Legal Issues

January 30, 2023 by CARNM

Many articles1, journals2, books3, and other sources have discussed the continued and expansive nature of vehicles that are driven by computers as opposed to human beings.4 We have written and presented many programs on driverless vehicles (“DV”).5 Many of the materials mentioned as to DV have focused on the technological aspects of such vehicles.

Some of our articles6, too, have directed the reader’s attention to the stages of technological development for DV. This article is not directed to such discoveries on DV. Rather, the DV field must be examined in a multitude of areas. One of those fields that has not been examined in much detail covers the issue of ethical concerns with DV and their impact on real estate.

Another and related discussions cover the legal concerns in the real estate field when DV are employed. This article is intended to examine the many issues that are being raised and that should be raised as to legal matters and ethical issues for real estate owners, investors, and businesses if DV are employed in our society.

DV—What Are They?
When we use the term in this article of “DV,” we are including the myriad of terms that describe a vehicle that does not have a human being in the vehicle to direct the same. Thus, this DV term includes, for our purposes herein, AI (artificial intelligence) vehicle, SDV (self-driven vehicle), and other terms meeting this definitional standard of a vehicle that is directed be it by a computer inside or outside of the vehicle, and where there is no driver within the vehicle.7

There are many uses already engaging DV that are being employed throughout the world.8 Such uses of DV may be employed when operating the standard personal car, to other uses, e.g., farming9, shuttle services10, boats11, trucks12, mining13, flying14, and other instances where a vehicle is employed to accomplish various functions for mankind. Most of the discussion on ethics and legal issues in this Note will apply to most applications of DV that are related to the use of real estate, be that of the traditional automobile employed in business or some of the lesser-known uses of the DV, such as in farming operations, e.g., harvesting.

Legal Issues and DV
We often hear the comment that legal issues permeate all that we do in life. This is probably true. For example, inviting a guest to your home or business would not normally be a focus of legal concerns. However, what if the guest chokes on something the guest ate? Is the host responsible for this? (Yes, yes, we need to know more facts!). What we do know is that there may be a legal issue relative to this event. Likewise, if the guest tripped on the carpet, is the host responsible? (Again, yes, we need to know more facts such as whether the carpet was torn, worn, etc.) What we could agree is that such an event could generate legal questions as to liability.

If we assume the premise that there are legal issues connected with most events and behavior, we might apply this same approach to the DV setting.
However, this position might be a fortiori with DV, since it is recognized as new technology. Further, there are typically laws in each state, country, province, etc. that might specifically require certain actions relative to the DV. One of the more common laws in this setting is a direction under the law that the vehicle must have a driver15. Surely, when this law was passed, most legislators probably did not object to the same. The need for a driver was obvious. Then! Now, we need to modify our laws to allow the DV to be operated without a driver.

One might think this change is somewhat akin to the law that said in the real property area that one owns real estate to the center of the earth and as high as one can go. Such a law, again, seemed quite acceptable to lawmakers when it was passed. However, as we know, we have had to “adjust” our laws with the advent of technology, such as airplanes, drones, etc. Our legislators must be busy at work seeing the changes that must take place, such as providing for a vehicle to be run without a driver.

The DV without a driver is a truism — one would argue. However, many laws in many jurisdictions have not modified the prior statutes and rules that state that a driver must be present in the vehicle, even if the vehicle is designed to not require a driver.

However, a more difficult legal issue about DV might entail the concern with who is liable, if anyone, in the event there is an accident involving a DV.16 If shopping center owners “invite” shoppers to a mall, where the design is for a DV to drop off a shopper, is there any liability to the passenger/shopper, DV owner, mall owner, mall manager, or others that are involved in this setting?

Historically, we would answer that the one driving, who was at fault, such as failing to stop at a stop sign or red light, should be liable for the injuries from an accident that occurred because of such driving.17 But should there be no driver, who then is liable?18 This issue is being addressed in many countries. It is not limited to the USA.19

Do we say the owner of the vehicle is liable? If so, how will such an owner provide protection? Would that owner gain insurance? Would insurance companies insure such DV? What if the accident was not caused by the owner of the vehicle that was involved in the accident? That is, for example, what if the DV was programmed to avoid accidents and a small child stepped into the street? If the DV swerved to avoid the child and the DV hit your car, would the owner of the DV be responsible? What if the DV #2 was damaged or someone was injured? Is the owner of the DV #1 responsible? Is the property owner, where the accident took place, liable?

Attorneys, especially attorneys dealing with litigation involving accidents, need to address these issues. Possibly the law would say no one is responsible. Possibly there will be a fund created that compensates parties that are involved in such accidents.20 There is one such proposal, referenced as the Automated Vehicles Act, which would if enacted, apply in the UK.21

The funding of a reserve might be created by a tax that requires monies paid to the fund when one buys or operates a DV. There are many approaches to providing such funds. However, the point at this stage is to address the issue of possible liability and recognize that there are legal concerns that must be considered when a DV comes into play.

When one engages a DV to move them from point A to point B, should such travelers have any liability because they engaged the vehicle?

How will insurance change because of the use of DV as opposed to privately owned vehicles?22 It has been suggested that DV will substantially change the insurance industry, since what they are insuring, the vehicle, and others connected with it will be substantially changed when it enters the DV range.23

What happens during the transition, when there are some privately owned driver vehicles operating and some DV operating? Are there different laws applicable in this setting? There are also DV ethical issues which can overlap with these legal issues, in some instances.

DV and Ethical Issues
Having established that there are legal issues that can arise when operating DV, what are some of the ethical issues that can arise with DV?

Suppose we examine the earlier example of the child that stepped out in front of a DV. The DV might, as noted, swerve and hit someone else.

The question arises, with no driver in the vehicle, what would cause the DV to swerve? If we expand on the earlier example and assume that the first DV, DV #1, was programmed to avoid hitting a living object, such as the child, and the DV swerves from the child and hits a building, one might say that the action was “right.” That is, in our society, and in most societies, the value of human life is more important than an inanimate object, such as the building.24 (We might add, as a side note, that there is now an additional legal issue in this setting. The programming for the DV might have been designed to avoid humans. However, in so doing the same, there is damage to the building. Should the owner of the DV be liable for the damage to the building? We could, of course, discuss, again, who might be liable in this setting. However, after noting this legal issue, we should stay with the subject at hand, viz., the ethical issues.)

An ethical concern might be with the “proper” or “ethical” approach that should be undertaken in the programming.25 Should the programmer — or those instructing the programmer — design the software to be certain that the child is not hit in the above case? Of course, this is the conclusion stated above. But take it to the next step. What if we assume the DV was faced with turning away from hitting the child, but the option this time was to swerve and hit 2 pedestrians? What if the pedestrians are older?

What if there is a third option: The DV could be programmed to hit a wall, avoiding hitting the child and avoiding hitting the other 2 pedestrians? However, in hitting the wall the occupant of the DV will be killed. (Is the owner of the real estate, the “wall,” liable?)

Ethically, and possibly legally, how should a DV be programmed in this type of setting, and who should make the decision as to the programming (e.g. the owner of the DV, the operator of the DV, the manufacturer of the DV, the government that permitted the DV on the road, the owner of the real estate where the DV operated, etc.)?26

If, for example, the owner of the DV is to make these decisions, must the owner of the DV, who structures the programming for the DV, anticipate the various situations that the DV will face? If the owner of the DV does not provide programming for the actions of the DV, is the owner responsible?

These life-or-death decisions, trying to decide where the vehicle, a car, a trolley, or another machine, crashes into one person or others, continue to be an important issue that needs to be resolved when thinking of the programming that will take place with the DV.

In considering these situations, where a choice must be made as to who is injured or who dies, many often refer to the well-known “Trolley” problem or cases. One article discussing this area noted the DV (labeled in this note as “AV”) stated:

It has not escaped notice that some accident scenarios bear a resemblance to what are known in philosophy as “trolley cases.” These are imagined scenarios in which a runaway trolley will result in the death of some number of individuals unless a choice is made to divert or other-wise alter the trolley’s course, resulting in some other number of deaths. In the classic trolley case, the trolley is headed down a track and will kill five people that can’t escape. A bystander can pull a switch and divert the trolley onto another track. However, on this track there is one person who cannot escape and will die if the trolley is diverted. A similar scenario involves an AV that is traveling down a street when suddenly a group of pedestrians runs into the street. The only way to avoid hitting them is to take a turn that will result in the death of a pedestrian on the sidewalk. In another version of the trolley case, a trolley cannot stop and will kill five people unless an object of sufficient weight is pushed in front of it. A bystander has the option of pushing a large person off a bridge and onto the tracks in a way that would stop the train before it kills the five. Again, a case involving an AV might have a similar structure: Perhaps an empty AV has gone out of control and will hit five pedestrians unless another AV with a single passenger drives itself into the first AV.27

In another article addressing this trolley issue, author Brown stated:

That’s where philosophers and ethicists have long brought up one of the foundational issues facing an autonomous-driving future. It’s known as the “trolley problem,” and it basically boils down to this: How do you teach a car to make complex, life-or-death decisions in seemingly lose-lose scenarios on the road? And if cars can’t do this, would you trust them to carry your child to school or your parent to a doctor’s appointment

Autonomous-driving researchers say the industry is far from deciding how AI chooses who receives the brunt force of an oncoming accident.28

The above-noted author, Brown, commented further on this issue by stating:

There have been attempts to quantify human perspectives on AI-driving decisions. One method came from researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), who conducted a global study to find a consensus approach to the trolley problem.

The trolley problem is a decades-old moral dilemma where someone must fictionally decide whether to steer a trolley towards one person to save a larger group of people. Generally, people think AI’s responsibility is to spare as many lives as possible, even if that means killing a few, according to an experiment published in 2018.29

This “Trolley” problem remains an issue with DV.

There are other settings in which decisions must be made that involve the lives of many people in a DV setting. If these decisions are made in connection with a DV on the real property of a given owner, such as in an office complex, an industrial complex, a shopping center, etc., is there any responsibility to the owner of the real estate that permits the use of DV on the property of the owner? Will an owner of such real estate resist the use of DV on the premises of the property owner?

What if one, riding in a DV, becomes very ill and the DV is programmed to take the rider to the hospital? Can and should the DV be allowed to speed to the hospital, endangering others, but potentially helping the ill occupant in the DV? Is this what a human driver would do in this setting, and therefore, is such an action acceptable?

There are many moral issues related to DV. One examination of many of these issues was conducted under what is known as “The Moral Machine” experiment. The summary of this experiment dealing with artificial intelligence, in general, was stated by the authors as:

With the rapid development of artificial intelligence have come concerns about how machines will make moral decisions, and the major challenge of quantifying societal expectations about the ethical principles that should guide machine behaviour. To address this challenge, we deployed the Moral Machine, an online experimental platform designed to explore the moral dilemmas faced by autonomous vehicles. This platform gathered 40 million decisions in ten languages from millions of people in 233 countries and territories. Here we describe the results of this experiment. First, we summarize global moral preferences. Second, we document individual variations in preferences, based on respondents’ demographics. Third, we report cross-cultural ethical variation, and uncover three major clusters of countries. Fourth, we show that these differences correlate with modern institutions and deep cultural traits. We discuss how these preferences can contribute to developing global, socially acceptable principles for machine ethics.30

There are many other situations we can envision using DV that can raise legal and ethical issues. Suffice to say that such issues exist and those dealing with DV must be positioned to engage and solve these issues — hopefully, before they arise.31

Conclusion
Creative destruction exists.32

There will be those that will lose employment because of DV.

There will be those that will gain from the DV surge. Property owners employing DV shuttles may substantially reduce the costs of transporting customers, etc. However, everyone will face, with the advent of DV, ethical and legal issues.

This Note is an attempt to further the discussion as to these two areas of ethics and law as they interplay with the introduction into society of the DV, especially those connected with employing DV relative to the use of real estate.

As mentioned, there are many, many additional issues that must be addressed because of the use of DV. By taking only a part of these issues, ethics and law, it is hoped that there can be greater focus on these areas to try and address solutions to the many issues that have already arisen in these areas. What one will quickly observe is that attempts to address ethical and legal issues will result in overlap with many of the other issues impacting DV. For example, notwithstanding the technology that has developed, the technology is sometimes hampered by legal concerns, such as the earlier mentioned concern that many older statutes or laws have provided that a driver must always be in the moving vehicle. With the advance of technology, we have now seen that many manufacturers are removing the steering wheel and have no “driver’s seat.” Thus, the technology has moved to this driverless position, yet the laws in some locations have not been modified to allow such position. As recently stated in an article by Kayla Matthews:

“In 2017, a total of 33 states introduced driverless vehicle legislation as opposed to 20 states the year prior. So, it’s clearly ramping up. Today, 29 states have existing laws that deal with autonomous vehicles and their systems. But federal action is another concern, outside of local and state legislators. The National Highway and Transportation Safety Administration released new guidelines for automated driving systems in September of this year. The Senate is also working on introducing autonomous vehicle legislation.”34

Again, the point is that areas of concern overlap with each other in many instances. This overlap of the legal requirement for a driver and the technological development to remove the steering wheel (because there is no driver in the vehicle) is a wonderful example of this concern.

We can be certain that much more will be developing in this area of DV as to ethical and legal issues, including these issues when addressing real property interests.

Source: “Impact of Driverless Vehicles on Real Estate: Ethical and Legal Issues“

Filed Under: All News

Impact of Driverless Vehicles on Real Estate: Ethical and Legal Issues

January 30, 2023 by CARNM

Some of our articles6, too, have directed the reader’s attention to the stages of technological development for DV. This article is not directed to such discoveries on DV. Rather, the DV field must be examined in a multitude of areas. One of those fields that has not been examined in much detail covers the issue of ethical concerns with DV and their impact on real estate.

Another and related discussions cover the legal concerns in the real estate field when DV are employed. This article is intended to examine the many issues that are being raised and that should be raised as to legal matters and ethical issues for real estate owners, investors, and businesses if DV are employed in our society.

DV—What Are They?
When we use the term in this article of “DV,” we are including the myriad of terms that describe a vehicle that does not have a human being in the vehicle to direct the same. Thus, this DV term includes, for our purposes herein, AI (artificial intelligence) vehicle, SDV (self-driven vehicle), and other terms meeting this definitional standard of a vehicle that is directed be it by a computer inside or outside of the vehicle, and where there is no driver within the vehicle.7

There are many uses already engaging DV that are being employed throughout the world.8 Such uses of DV may be employed when operating the standard personal car, to other uses, e.g., farming9, shuttle services10, boats11, trucks12, mining13, flying14, and other instances where a vehicle is employed to accomplish various functions for mankind. Most of the discussion on ethics and legal issues in this Note will apply to most applications of DV that are related to the use of real estate, be that of the traditional automobile employed in business or some of the lesser-known uses of the DV, such as in farming operations, e.g., harvesting.

Legal Issues and DV
We often hear the comment that legal issues permeate all that we do in life. This is probably true. For example, inviting a guest to your home or business would not normally be a focus of legal concerns. However, what if the guest chokes on something the guest ate? Is the host responsible for this? (Yes, yes, we need to know more facts!). What we do know is that there may be a legal issue relative to this event. Likewise, if the guest tripped on the carpet, is the host responsible? (Again, yes, we need to know more facts such as whether the carpet was torn, worn, etc.) What we could agree is that such an event could generate legal questions as to liability.

If we assume the premise that there are legal issues connected with most events and behavior, we might apply this same approach to the DV setting.
However, this position might be a fortiori with DV, since it is recognized as new technology. Further, there are typically laws in each state, country, province, etc. that might specifically require certain actions relative to the DV. One of the more common laws in this setting is a direction under the law that the vehicle must have a driver15. Surely, when this law was passed, most legislators probably did not object to the same. The need for a driver was obvious. Then! Now, we need to modify our laws to allow the DV to be operated without a driver.

One might think this change is somewhat akin to the law that said in the real property area that one owns real estate to the center of the earth and as high as one can go. Such a law, again, seemed quite acceptable to lawmakers when it was passed. However, as we know, we have had to “adjust” our laws with the advent of technology, such as airplanes, drones, etc. Our legislators must be busy at work seeing the changes that must take place, such as providing for a vehicle to be run without a driver.

The DV without a driver is a truism — one would argue. However, many laws in many jurisdictions have not modified the prior statutes and rules that state that a driver must be present in the vehicle, even if the vehicle is designed to not require a driver.

However, a more difficult legal issue about DV might entail the concern with who is liable, if anyone, in the event there is an accident involving a DV.16 If shopping center owners “invite” shoppers to a mall, where the design is for a DV to drop off a shopper, is there any liability to the passenger/shopper, DV owner, mall owner, mall manager, or others that are involved in this setting?

Historically, we would answer that the one driving, who was at fault, such as failing to stop at a stop sign or red light, should be liable for the injuries from an accident that occurred because of such driving.17 But should there be no driver, who then is liable?18 This issue is being addressed in many countries. It is not limited to the USA.19

Do we say the owner of the vehicle is liable? If so, how will such an owner provide protection? Would that owner gain insurance? Would insurance companies insure such DV? What if the accident was not caused by the owner of the vehicle that was involved in the accident? That is, for example, what if the DV was programmed to avoid accidents and a small child stepped into the street? If the DV swerved to avoid the child and the DV hit your car, would the owner of the DV be responsible? What if the DV #2 was damaged or someone was injured? Is the owner of the DV #1 responsible? Is the property owner, where the accident took place, liable?

Attorneys, especially attorneys dealing with litigation involving accidents, need to address these issues. Possibly the law would say no one is responsible. Possibly there will be a fund created that compensates parties that are involved in such accidents.20 There is one such proposal, referenced as the Automated Vehicles Act, which would if enacted, apply in the UK.21

The funding of a reserve might be created by a tax that requires monies paid to the fund when one buys or operates a DV. There are many approaches to providing such funds. However, the point at this stage is to address the issue of possible liability and recognize that there are legal concerns that must be considered when a DV comes into play.

When one engages a DV to move them from point A to point B, should such travelers have any liability because they engaged the vehicle?

How will insurance change because of the use of DV as opposed to privately owned vehicles?22 It has been suggested that DV will substantially change the insurance industry, since what they are insuring, the vehicle, and others connected with it will be substantially changed when it enters the DV range.23

What happens during the transition, when there are some privately owned driver vehicles operating and some DV operating? Are there different laws applicable in this setting? There are also DV ethical issues which can overlap with these legal issues, in some instances.

DV and Ethical Issues
Having established that there are legal issues that can arise when operating DV, what are some of the ethical issues that can arise with DV?

Suppose we examine the earlier example of the child that stepped out in front of a DV. The DV might, as noted, swerve and hit someone else.

The question arises, with no driver in the vehicle, what would cause the DV to swerve? If we expand on the earlier example and assume that the first DV, DV #1, was programmed to avoid hitting a living object, such as the child, and the DV swerves from the child and hits a building, one might say that the action was “right.” That is, in our society, and in most societies, the value of human life is more important than an inanimate object, such as the building.24 (We might add, as a side note, that there is now an additional legal issue in this setting. The programming for the DV might have been designed to avoid humans. However, in so doing the same, there is damage to the building. Should the owner of the DV be liable for the damage to the building? We could, of course, discuss, again, who might be liable in this setting. However, after noting this legal issue, we should stay with the subject at hand, viz., the ethical issues.)

An ethical concern might be with the “proper” or “ethical” approach that should be undertaken in the programming.25 Should the programmer — or those instructing the programmer — design the software to be certain that the child is not hit in the above case? Of course, this is the conclusion stated above. But take it to the next step. What if we assume the DV was faced with turning away from hitting the child, but the option this time was to swerve and hit 2 pedestrians? What if the pedestrians are older?

What if there is a third option: The DV could be programmed to hit a wall, avoiding hitting the child and avoiding hitting the other 2 pedestrians? However, in hitting the wall the occupant of the DV will be killed. (Is the owner of the real estate, the “wall,” liable?)

Ethically, and possibly legally, how should a DV be programmed in this type of setting, and who should make the decision as to the programming (e.g. the owner of the DV, the operator of the DV, the manufacturer of the DV, the government that permitted the DV on the road, the owner of the real estate where the DV operated, etc.)?26

If, for example, the owner of the DV is to make these decisions, must the owner of the DV, who structures the programming for the DV, anticipate the various situations that the DV will face? If the owner of the DV does not provide programming for the actions of the DV, is the owner responsible?

These life-or-death decisions, trying to decide where the vehicle, a car, a trolley, or another machine, crashes into one person or others, continue to be an important issue that needs to be resolved when thinking of the programming that will take place with the DV.

In considering these situations, where a choice must be made as to who is injured or who dies, many often refer to the well-known “Trolley” problem or cases. One article discussing this area noted the DV (labeled in this note as “AV”) stated:

It has not escaped notice that some accident scenarios bear a resemblance to what are known in philosophy as “trolley cases.” These are imagined scenarios in which a runaway trolley will result in the death of some number of individuals unless a choice is made to divert or other-wise alter the trolley’s course, resulting in some other number of deaths. In the classic trolley case, the trolley is headed down a track and will kill five people that can’t escape. A bystander can pull a switch and divert the trolley onto another track. However, on this track there is one person who cannot escape and will die if the trolley is diverted. A similar scenario involves an AV that is traveling down a street when suddenly a group of pedestrians runs into the street. The only way to avoid hitting them is to take a turn that will result in the death of a pedestrian on the sidewalk. In another version of the trolley case, a trolley cannot stop and will kill five people unless an object of sufficient weight is pushed in front of it. A bystander has the option of pushing a large person off a bridge and onto the tracks in a way that would stop the train before it kills the five. Again, a case involving an AV might have a similar structure: Perhaps an empty AV has gone out of control and will hit five pedestrians unless another AV with a single passenger drives itself into the first AV.27

In another article addressing this trolley issue, author Brown stated:

That’s where philosophers and ethicists have long brought up one of the foundational issues facing an autonomous-driving future. It’s known as the “trolley problem,” and it basically boils down to this: How do you teach a car to make complex, life-or-death decisions in seemingly lose-lose scenarios on the road? And if cars can’t do this, would you trust them to carry your child to school or your parent to a doctor’s appointment

Autonomous-driving researchers say the industry is far from deciding how AI chooses who receives the brunt force of an oncoming accident.28

The above-noted author, Brown, commented further on this issue by stating:

There have been attempts to quantify human perspectives on AI-driving decisions. One method came from researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), who conducted a global study to find a consensus approach to the trolley problem.

The trolley problem is a decades-old moral dilemma where someone must fictionally decide whether to steer a trolley towards one person to save a larger group of people. Generally, people think AI’s responsibility is to spare as many lives as possible, even if that means killing a few, according to an experiment published in 2018.29

This “Trolley” problem remains an issue with DV.

There are other settings in which decisions must be made that involve the lives of many people in a DV setting. If these decisions are made in connection with a DV on the real property of a given owner, such as in an office complex, an industrial complex, a shopping center, etc., is there any responsibility to the owner of the real estate that permits the use of DV on the property of the owner? Will an owner of such real estate resist the use of DV on the premises of the property owner?

What if one, riding in a DV, becomes very ill and the DV is programmed to take the rider to the hospital? Can and should the DV be allowed to speed to the hospital, endangering others, but potentially helping the ill occupant in the DV? Is this what a human driver would do in this setting, and therefore, is such an action acceptable?

There are many moral issues related to DV. One examination of many of these issues was conducted under what is known as “The Moral Machine” experiment. The summary of this experiment dealing with artificial intelligence, in general, was stated by the authors as:

With the rapid development of artificial intelligence have come concerns about how machines will make moral decisions, and the major challenge of quantifying societal expectations about the ethical principles that should guide machine behaviour. To address this challenge, we deployed the Moral Machine, an online experimental platform designed to explore the moral dilemmas faced by autonomous vehicles. This platform gathered 40 million decisions in ten languages from millions of people in 233 countries and territories. Here we describe the results of this experiment. First, we summarize global moral preferences. Second, we document individual variations in preferences, based on respondents’ demographics. Third, we report cross-cultural ethical variation, and uncover three major clusters of countries. Fourth, we show that these differences correlate with modern institutions and deep cultural traits. We discuss how these preferences can contribute to developing global, socially acceptable principles for machine ethics.30

There are many other situations we can envision using DV that can raise legal and ethical issues. Suffice to say that such issues exist and those dealing with DV must be positioned to engage and solve these issues — hopefully, before they arise.31

Conclusion
Creative destruction exists.32

There will be those that will lose employment because of DV.

There will be those that will gain from the DV surge. Property owners employing DV shuttles may substantially reduce the costs of transporting customers, etc. However, everyone will face, with the advent of DV, ethical and legal issues.

This Note is an attempt to further the discussion as to these two areas of ethics and law as they interplay with the introduction into society of the DV, especially those connected with employing DV relative to the use of real estate.

As mentioned, there are many, many additional issues that must be addressed because of the use of DV. By taking only a part of these issues, ethics and law, it is hoped that there can be greater focus on these areas to try and address solutions to the many issues that have already arisen in these areas. What one will quickly observe is that attempts to address ethical and legal issues will result in overlap with many of the other issues impacting DV. For example, notwithstanding the technology that has developed, the technology is sometimes hampered by legal concerns, such as the earlier mentioned concern that many older statutes or laws have provided that a driver must always be in the moving vehicle. With the advance of technology, we have now seen that many manufacturers are removing the steering wheel and have no “driver’s seat.” Thus, the technology has moved to this driverless position, yet the laws in some locations have not been modified to allow such position. As recently stated in an article by Kayla Matthews:

“In 2017, a total of 33 states introduced driverless vehicle legislation as opposed to 20 states the year prior. So, it’s clearly ramping up. Today, 29 states have existing laws that deal with autonomous vehicles and their systems. But federal action is another concern, outside of local and state legislators. The National Highway and Transportation Safety Administration released new guidelines for automated driving systems in September of this year. The Senate is also working on introducing autonomous vehicle legislation.”34

Again, the point is that areas of concern overlap with each other in many instances. This overlap of the legal requirement for a driver and the technological development to remove the steering wheel (because there is no driver in the vehicle) is a wonderful example of this concern.

We can be certain that much more will be developing in this area of DV as to ethical and legal issues, including these issues when addressing real property interests.

Other Issues Impacting the DV
There are many issues related to the use of DV for real estate operations or otherwise. Consider, for example: Who is creating these vehicles?35 That is, who are the manufacturers of DV?36 When will these DV be available to the public in general?37 Will most people own DV?38 Will most people stop driving their own vehicles?39 Will these vehicles be safe?40 Will we be able to have transportation for a lesser cost, using DV for transferring individuals and/or goods?41 What impact will these DV have on our society?42 Will people lose (or gain) employment because of DV?43 Who will insure the DV?44 (Will this be insured?) Who is liable if someone is injured by a DV?45 (There is more discussion on this point, below.) Will we still own our cars?46 If not, do we need a garage for parking?47 What are the implications of not owning a vehicle relative to real estate?48 Is the development of DV occurring mainly in the US?49 Who will operate the DV? (You, Uber, or some other party?50) Will Uber and similar companies still exist?51 Will taxis still exist?52 (Is the DV employed as a taxi, such as taking people to and from work, shopping, etc.?) Will existing vehicles be changed to DV or do we need all new equipment?53 Are DV vehicles “good” for our society?54 What are some of the ethical concerns as to dealing with DV, such as programming of these DV (more on this below)? These and many other good questions must be answered at some point in time. Many articles have already discussed some of these issues.
However, once again, the analysis in this Note deals with the use of DV relative to ethical and legal issues. Thus, we move to this point, assuming the above issues, when related to DV, will be answered, such as placing more DV within our community.

Source: “Impact of Driverless Vehicles on Real Estate: Ethical and Legal Issues”

Filed Under: All News

Office Demand Unlikely to ‘Ever to Revert in Full’

January 26, 2023 by CARNM

Holidays and extreme weather conditions prompted a typical seasonal office demand slowdown in December, according to the VTS Office Demand Index (VODI). However, the year-over-year decline for the month was slightly larger than in previous years.

New demand for office space ended the year 31.3 percent below its May 2022 peak and fell 20.7 percent year-over-year to a VODI of 46 in December.

The report said that a tight labor market, layoffs, threats of another COVID-19 variant, and interest rate hikes have “given pause” to prospective office tenants.

Nick Romito, CEO of VTS, said in prepared remarks, “The reality is that the outlook for the U.S. economy is still unknown, and expectations of a recession continue to loom large in 2023. Where the economy heads will be the through-thread for office demand decisions as we head into the new year.”

Romito said a silver lining is a significant momentum in return-to-office trends. “Continued momentum in return-to-office will undoubtedly provide a tailwind for office demand in 2023 and beyond,” he said while acknowledging that “realistically, it seems unlikely to ever revert in full.”

A weekly report from Kastle that measures office worker occupancy showed the national average of 49.5% of workers were in the office compared to pre-pandemic. The Kastle measurement has not exceeded 50% since COVID-19 set in.

Tech Layoffs and Potential Recession Won’t Help

Doug Ressler, business manager, Yardi’s Commercial Edge, tells GlobeSt.com that office-using sectors of the labor market lost 6,000 jobs in December, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, only the second monthly decrease since the onset of the pandemic in early 2020.

Financial activities gained 5,000 jobs in the month, but information lost 5,000, and professional and business services lost 6,000. Year-over-year growth for office-using sectors has rapidly decelerated in recent months.

Office-using employment growth will further decelerate as tech layoffs bleed into 2023 and a potential recession loom. Between January 2021 and July 2022, office sectors added an average of 117,000 jobs a month. In the last five months, they have averaged only 25,000 jobs per month.

“Even as some firms become more forceful in bringing workers back into the office, many have fully committed to hybrid and remote work policies,” Ressler said. “This will be another year of uncertainty and change in the office sector as it moves toward a post-pandemic status quo. Significant change will depend on the duration of the recession, rising interest rate stabilization, and the acceptance of a hybrid or pre-pandemic work model.”

Remote Work Makes Office Leasing Picture is ‘Hazy’

Lanie Beck, Northmarq Senior Director, Content & Marketing Research, tells GlobeSt.com that the outlook for office leasing is a bit hazy right now, with many factors influencing tenant demand.

“Merger and acquisition activity, and the resulting consolidation of physical space that often occurs, can impact office demand,” she said. “Layoffs too can alter a tenant’s need for space.

“But the remote work trend has been one of the primary drivers in recent years, and for employers who haven’t mandated a return-to-office, they’re undoubtedly evaluating both their short and long-term needs for traditional office space.”

Businesses to Delay Long-Term Office Lease Decisions

Jonathon Blackwell, Managing Partner of Arkhouse, a hedge fund taking a private equity approach to public market investing, tells GlobeSt.com that over the past few months, he’s seen an increasingly risk-off approach from institutional real estate investors and lenders alike, as they wait to see what the impact of upcoming FOMC meetings and quantitative tightening will have on an already uncertain economic landscape.

“A slowdown in short-term office demand within the broader market backdrop is not surprising as businesses are less likely to make long-term decisions in the face of increased short-term uncertainty,” Blackwell said.

“We feel it is too early to say what office demand will look like beyond 2023, as the largest variables driving the outcome are yet to be determined, but also expect businesses to delay long-term office lease decisions until there is more certainty.”

Desired Space Shrinks by One-Fourth

Creighton Armstrong, National Director, Government Services, JLL, tells GlobeSt.com tenants committed to leases in 2022 leased space that was, on average, 27% smaller than their prior lease.

However, despite the smaller average, the overall volume of space leased held steady between 2021 and 2022 due to a slightly higher number of deals closed.

Seattle Office Demand in Hibernation

Bret Jordan, president of the Northwest region at Ryan Companies US, tells GlobeSt.com that office demand in Seattle went to sleep in July of 2021 and hasn’t yet awoken from its slumber.

“We’re seeing the large layoff announcements oxygenating the smaller scale and start-up companies’ labor choices, so we are expecting office demand to awaken mid-year,” Jordan said.

“The caveat is that demand will be smaller in nature given the past cycle was full of giant demand deals. This is a reversion to our norm and not a fundamental shift in the underpinnings of our region.

One data point supporting this is the net new demand for residential, he said.

“While again lower in total than the heady pandemic years it remains resilient and in excess of the foreseeable supply,” Jordan said.

Minneapolis to Seek New, Amenity-Rich Assets

Peter Fitzgerald, vice president of real estate development at Ryan Companies US, tells GlobeSt.com that despite the downward trend of office demand, he expects an unprecedented flight to the newest and amenity-rich assets in the Minneapolis-St. Paul market.

He said that new construction is leading the market with several buildings 90%+ leased. One example is 10 West End. Ryan Companies sold the Class A office building in St. Louis Park, Minn. to Bridge Investment Group.

“The building opened in January 2021, in the thick of the pandemic, and experienced nearly 300,000 square feet of leasing activity until it was sold in November 2022,” Fitzgerald said.

Office Tours Increasing Significantly

Chicago-based developer Bob Wislow, Parkside Realty, tells GlobeSt.com that while winter months can sometimes put a damper on real estate tours, especially in colder climates like Chicago, he hasn’t seen a decrease in activity this year.

“Tour requests at all five of our office buildings have significantly increased this month, with one seeing the highest level of activity in years,” Wislow said.

“Companies that need new space because they are expanding operations or have a lease expiring are looking at all options available to them because they know their office space represents more than just a place to do work.

“With hybrid schedules becoming the norm, it’s more important than ever to offer a dynamic environment that promotes collaboration and engagement and provides the amenities and conveniences workers want in exchange for their commute. It also helps to be in an area that is buzzing with activity, as that energy and vitality can’t be recreated in a remote setting.”

South Florida Worker Office Occupancy 60% to 70%

Tere Blanca, founder, chairman, and CEO of Blanca Commercial Real Estate, tells GlobeSt.com that across South Florida, there is a “tremendous” return to the office, especially across the finance sector and it seems that three to four days a week has become prevalent in many industries.

“Because Miami, Fort Lauderdale, and Palm Beach (South Florida in general) is experiencing such constant, amazing migration, with the demographics very strong, many companies are moving here and whatever contraction we might see is mitigated by new buildings being created,” Blanca said. “There is quite a bit of new product in the pipeline to deliver over the next three to seven years; whatever is available right now is getting leased.”

She said buildings are seeing employee occupancy at 60% to 70% in most cases.

“The reality is, even before COVID, when a building was leased out, you still never had full occupancy, Blanca said. “This was from people traveling, being out for meetings, having a family situation, etc. This is why parking garages can oversell by 15% to 20%.”

Offices Need Tech Modernization

Katie Klein, North America Country director at WiredScore, tells GlobeSt.com that what people look for in an office has changed.

“To bring employees out of their homes and back into the office, office landlords must provide appealing properties and spaces. One way to do this is to provide the technology platform that modern office tenants require,” she said.

According to WiredScore’s North American Office report, only 38% of offices are considered advanced ‘smart offices,’ yet 80% of employees state they would be more inclined to go to the office if their building had smart technology.

Source: “Office Demand Unlikely to ‘Ever to Revert in Full‘”

Filed Under: All News

Multifamily Underwriting Assumptions Are Up Over Pre-Pandemic Times

January 26, 2023 by CARNM

Underwriting has gotten tougher in multifamily, according to a new analysis from CBRE — at least for prime assets. That probably isn’t a shock to many in the industry. Interest rates are up, as are concerns about property owners who purchased and set strategies when rates were very low and available leverage high.

What once could be rationalized by the ongoing rise of expected multifamily net operating income no longer can be. Rents are clearly decelerating and no one knows where the bottom will be. In the last quarter of 2022, the net percentage of domestic banks tightening standards for multifamily CRE loans was 36.4 percent, according to data from the Federal Reserve. They had been climbing all last year and absent some sudden turnaround, that percentage will keep climbing.

“The average multifamily going-in cap rate increased by 38 basis points (bps) to 4.49% in Q4 2022, exceeding the pre-pandemic Q4 2019 average of 4.16%,” wrote CBRE. “Heightened market volatility and higher borrowing costs have pushed the cap rate up by 113 bps over the past nine months.”

Those are averages but there are some significant differences by market. “Markets where multifamily cap rates increased rapidly in the second half of 2022 in response to rising interest rates are expected to see no additional increases early this year,” the firm wrote. “However, markets with more measured cap rate expansion last year are expected to see notable increases in Q1 2023.”

The annual average rent growth for the first three years in underwriting dropped 0.7% in the third quarter of 2022 and another 0.5% in the final quarter. The going-in cap rate was up 36 basis points in Q3 and another 38 in Q4. Exit cap rates were up 21 and 22 basis points respectively in Q3 and Q4, returning to pre-pandemic rates, while the holding period dropped by 2.3% in Q3 but grew 4.7% in Q4. And the spread between going-in and exit cap rates dropped first by 15 and then 16 basis points.

“CBRE’s Q4 2022 Prime Multifamily Underwriting Survey found that investors are projecting 3.1% annual rent growth over the next three years, down from a 3.6% forecast in Q3 but equal to the level of the 2014 to 2019 period,” the firm wrote. “Investors are slightly more optimistic about rent growth in gateway markets (3.25%) than non-gateways (2.97%).”

Source: “Multifamily Underwriting Assumptions Are Up Over Pre-Pandemic Times“

Filed Under: All News

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