Fundamentals in the commercial real estate industry are expected to improve significantly over the next three years, according to a recent survey of economists and analysts from real estate organizations.
The Urban Land Institute (ULI) noted that equity REITs are projected to post double-digit returns in 2013 and 2014 in its recently released ULI/Ernst & Young Real Estate Consensus Forecast for April 2013.
Calvin Schnure, NAREIT’s vice president of research and industry information and contributor to the semi-annual survey, explained that underlying this favorable performance is an expectation that GDP growth will re-accelerate to 3% or more in 2014 and 2015. This rebound comes after slowing slightly in 2013, due to the federal sequester and fiscal cliff deal. The unemployment rate is projected to move down steadily over the next few years, to 6.5% in 2015.
“The overall economy continues to improve, despite bumps in the road like the recent government sequester,” said Schnure. “The recovery in commercial property markets is still in the early stages, with lots more upside than downside risks.”
When it comes to individual sector returns, the survey noted that multifamily will likely continue to lead the way, but with other sectors not far behind.
Schnure said that conditions are expected to stay tight in multifamily housing, with vacancy rates remaining at or near their current low levels. He added, however, that rent growth is expected to decelerate, especially as the single-family housing market rebounds. Single-family housing starts are projected to rise from 535,300 in 2012 to 700,000 this year, and reach 1 million by 2015.
Vacancy rates are projected to trend down in office and retail as these sectors benefit from sustained economic growth, according to the survey. Rent increases are likely to be modest, though, as vacancy rates remain elevated. (REIT.com) Continued Improvement for CRE
Register for Tax Updates & Cost Segregation
May 1, 2013
9:15 – 11:15 a.m.
2 CE Credits Requested
This two hour course examines tax policy that affects real estate professionals and investors, including recent changes in individual tax rates and laws as well as the Medicare “Surtax.” Regardless of the size of your portfolio, understanding tax strategies can positively impact your returns and future plans. A comprehensive planning process enables you to define a practice action plan that links required changes into your annual business plan.
The proper depreciation and allocation of fixed assets, such as real estate, can be powerful drivers of cash flow. While fixed assets are often the largest part of a balance sheet, organizations often overlook valuable available opportunities simply because they aren’t aware of all the incentives that exist in commercial real estate for:
- Federal Cost Segregation
- State Cost Segregation for New Mexico Gross Receipts Tax Savings
- Energy and Sustainable Building Tax Incentives
Register for NMREC Mandatory
April 25, 2013
8:00 a.m. – 5:00 p.m.
8 CE Credits
Every NMREC licensee must complete this class once every three years!
Get up-to-date on broker duties and other NMREC Rules changes, plus recent legislative activity. Discuss the Real Estate Commission’s office inspection procedures and disciplinary actions. Review key RESPA and fair housing issues.
Instructor Lou Tulga is Qualifying Broker for Lou Tulga & Associates and a New Mexico Real Estate Commission Approved Instructor. He served the Greater Albuquerque Association of REALTORS® as both officer and director, and he served as President of the REALTORS® Association of New Mexico. Lou served ten years as a national Director for the National Association of REALTORS® and chaired both its Risk Management and Commercial Investment committees. He is the director for Professional Education Services offering NMREC approved continuing education courses.
