Archives for January 2015

U.S. Venture Capital Investment Spanned 160 Cities in 2014

January 20, 2015 by mcarristo

Venture Capitalists Invested in Companies in the Highest Number of Metro Areas of The Past Five Years
WASHINGTON, DC – Venture capitalists invested $48.3 billion into companies located in 160 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) in 2014, according to the MoneyTree™ Report by PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (PwC) and the National Venture Capital Association (NVCA), based on data from Thomson Reuters. The geographic distribution of venture capital investment in 2014 spanned the highest number of MSAs of the past five years, and represented a 7.5 percent increase from 2013, when companies in 148 metro areas received venture capital investment.
“The venture community continues to invest in entrepreneurs founding innovative companies in regions across the U.S., deploying capital to more cities in 2014 than any year in the past five years,” said Bobby Franklin, President and CEO of NVCA. “Great ideas and great companies can be started almost anywhere and while historically concentrated, the venture capital ecosystem is able to move capital quickly and efficiently toward the greatest opportunities. The diverse geography of venture investment points to the enormous impact of entrepreneurs, students, incubators, investors and others who are working to build local ecosystems where high-growth companies can thrive, create jobs and shape the future our economy.”
Top Metro Areas for Venture Capital Investment Remain Consistent
For the fifth consecutive year, San Francisco, San Jose, Boston and New York maintained rankings in the top four metro areas for venture capital investment. San Francisco maintained the top spot for venture capital investment; five of the 10 largest deals completed in 2014 were in the metro area. For the first time, Los Angeles earned the fifth spot, moving up from sixth place in 2013 and replacing Washington, D.C. which dropped to ninth place.
Mega-Deals Push Three Metro Areas into Top 20
A number of mega-deals, those which exceed $100 million dollars, pushed three metro areas into the list of the top 20 MSAs for venture capital activity. Fort Lauderdale, Florida leapt from #81 in 2013 up to #11 among all MSAs in 2014 as the result of an Early Stage deal exceeding $500 million. In Provo, Utah, an Expansion Stage deal and a Later Stage Deal, each exceeding $100 million, moved the metro area up to #16 from #29 in 2013. Houston, Texas jumped from #22 to #18 in 2014 as a result of an Expansion Stage mega-deal.
12 Metro Areas See Influx of Venture Capital Investment for First Time in Past Five Years
Companies located in Bryan-College Station, Texas; Bismarck, North Dakota; Terre Haute, Indiana; South Bend, Indiana; Elkhart-Goshen, Indiana; Bellingham, Washington; Johnson City-Kingsport-Bristol, Tennessee-Virginia; Lafayette, Louisiana; Newburgh, New York-Pennsylvania; Greenville, North Carolina; Springfield, Massachusetts; Janesville-Beloit, Wisconsin brought venture capital investment to those metro areas for the first time in the past five years.
Please note a metropolitan statistical area (MSA) refers to a geographical region with a relatively high population density. MSAs are defined by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) and used by the Census Bureau and other federal government agencies for statistical purposes.

By: Ben Veghte (National Venture Capital Association)
Click here to view source article.

Debate Begins on Right-to-Work Laws in NM

January 17, 2015 by mcarristo

SANTA FE – With New Mexico lawmakers poised to take up politically charged right-to-work legislation in a 60-day session that begins Tuesday, debate is already in full swing over what the change in labor laws would mean to New Mexico’s sluggish economy.
While juries are still out in some states that have adopted right-to-work laws, many business leaders and business-friendly lawmakers maintain they are key incentives to drawing new industry to job-hungry states.
Both sides of the debate roll out statistics.
Right-to-work laws

Bar nonunion employees from having to pay union fees as a condition of their employment.
Are currently in place in 24 states, primarily in the South, Midwest and Rocky Mountain region.
Date to 1947 federal Taft-Hartley Act.

Arguments in favor

Workers should be free to decide whether to join or financially support a union.
Right-to-work states are more attractive to businesses and spark job creation.

Arguments against

End up stifling worker pay levels.
Unfair in leading to workers getting the benefit of union representation without having to pay dues.

The AFL-CIO and other opponents cite studies that employee wages in non-right-to-work states are higher than wages in right-to-work states – by more than $1,500 per year. Supporters have studies that show compensation and employment rates are higher in right-to-work states.
An analysis by the National Right to Work Committee found employment levels had gone up by 2.4 percent from 2001 through 2011 in right-to-work states, while non-right-to-work states had seen their employment levels dip by more than 3 percent.
Results are not uniform. Former Oklahoma Gov. Frank Keating, speaking at the Domenici Public Policy Conference in Las Cruces last year, cited passage of a right-to-work law as a factor in helping his state move up the per capita income ladder.
But the number of new manufacturing jobs in Oklahoma actually decreased in the years after the 2001 law took effect, according to a report from the left-leaning Economic Policy Institute.
Then there is Indiana.
When Indiana became the nation’s 23rd state to enact a right-to-work law in 2012, the state’s leaders vowed the new labor law would lead to a flood of companies relocating or expanding there.
Now, nearly three years later, backers of the law say it’s working as intended.
As of last year, more than 80 companies that had factored Indiana’s right-to-work law into their decision-making calculus – and could create more than 9,000 new jobs in all – were in the state’s pipeline, Republican Gov. Mike Pence said.
Gary Tonjes, president of Albuquerque Economic Development Inc., said his counterparts in Indiana report they have seen a wave of “expanded client activity” since the state enacted its right-to-work law.
However, the only business initially cited by state officials as a direct result of Indiana’s right-to-work law – a manufacturer of packaged and printed materials – disputed an assertion the legislation had factored into its decision to expand.
While Indiana’s manufacturing job growth led the nation during a recent yearlong period, housing construction and other economic sectors have lagged behind.
“People have really unrealistic expectations about these laws,” said Kenneth Dau-Schmidt, an Indiana University law school professor who has studied the issue.
“Whether companies really make decisions based on (right-to-work status) has yet to be proven,” he said.

NM Legislation
In New Mexico, several right-to-work bills have been pre-filed by lawmakers – all Republicans – in the lead-up to this year’s session.
Details vary, with one version applying to employees in both the private and public sectors, and another affecting only private-sector workers. Another proposal would end state government’s practice of deducting union dues, or fees, from employee paychecks on behalf of unions.
Gov. Susana Martinez, a Republican who has just begun her second term in office, threw her support behind the right-to-work push earlier this month, calling a change to the state’s labor laws “common sense” and long overdue.

MARTINEZ: Says change in laws long overdue

Labor union leaders and some top-ranking Democratic lawmakers have pushed back and vowed to fight such efforts, with one arguing right-to-work laws should actually be called “right to work for less.”
Jon Hendry, president of the executive board of the New Mexico Federation of Labor, has argued right-to-work laws are more about weakening unions than job creation, saying, “For us to be able to take part in the political process, we have to be able to collect the money.”
When boiled down, the arguments for and against right-to-work laws follow a similar script across state lines: Are right-to-work laws a critical economic development tool in an ever-shifting economy or an over-hyped union-busting ploy with little economic payoff?

National Landscape
The first right-to-work laws were passed in the 1940s and 1950s, primarily in Southern states, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures.
The laws were in response to the federal Taft-Hartley Act, which restricted the activities of labor unions and allowed states to enact laws aimed at barring the practice of employees having to join unions or pay union dues as a condition of having a job.
Congress approved the 1947 act over a veto by then-President Harry Truman, who called it “bad for labor, bad for management and bad for the country.”
Currently, there are 24 right-to-work states, with Indiana and Michigan being the latest to enact such laws.

Before those two states, just one other state – Oklahoma – had approved a right-to-work law since 1993.
But there’s been recent resurgence in right-to-work interest. In addition to New Mexico, right-to-work legislation has prompted fierce debate in recent weeks in Kentucky.
The renewed push for right-to-work legislation in New Mexico was prompted by a Republican takeover of the House in the November general election and Martinez’s decisive re-election win, though Democrats still hold a majority in the Senate.
Recent attempts to pass right-to-work bills have been stymied in the Democratic-controlled Legislature. When right-to-work bills were last approved by New Mexico lawmakers, the legislation was vetoed by Democratic Gov. Bruce King in 1979 and again in 1981. King, who served three terms, was strongly supported by organized labor.
Since 1981, 19 right-to-work bills have been introduced in the New Mexico Legislature, but none has made it to the governor’s desk.
Most of New Mexico’s neighbors – Arizona, Texas, Oklahoma and Utah – are right-to-work states that have seen recent economic growth, to varying degrees. Texas, in particular, has added more than twice as many new jobs since 2000 than any other state.
However, Colorado, which is not a right-to-work state, also has seen its economy grow as a spike in construction and oil and gas industry hiring gave the state a job growth rate of nearly double the national average in 2013.
In addition, Colorado had a higher average worker salary – about $48,950 annually – than Texas, Arizona, Oklahoma, New Mexico or Utah as of May 2013, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data.
Economic Impact
Right-to-work states have landed some sizable economic fish in recent years.
In 2011, the aerospace giant Boeing opened a $750 million factory for its Dreamliner aircraft in South Carolina, a right-to-work state, after union strikes at its main manufacturing base in Washington, which is not a right-to-work state.
The situation ignited a political firestorm, with the federal National Labor Relations Board filing – and later dropping – an unfair labor practice case against the aircraft-maker for putting its new plant in South Carolina.
Bill Luttrell, a senior locations specialist with Werner Enterprises in Omaha, Neb., who originally hails from New Mexico, said right-to-work laws are not usually as important as other factors like availability and cost of labor.
But right-to-work status can be critical upfront when companies are considering what states to do business in, Luttrell said.
Other site selectors agree.
Tracey Hyatt Bosman, the managing director of BLS & Co., a Chicago-based corporate relocation and expansion advisory firm, said about one-third of her manufacturing clients screen out non-right-to-work states.
“They will not even look at a state that is not right-to-work,” she said in a recent interview. “Our clients are looking at it and using it as a bellwether for the business-friendliness of a location.”
States that don’t adopt right-to-work laws will increasingly be at a disadvantage as more states adopt such laws, said Hyatt Bosman, whose firm’s clients have included Fortune 500 companies like Campbell Soup Co., JP Morgan Chase and Verizon.
Attempting to gauge the impact of right-to-work laws is difficult, because states have different regulatory climates, tax rates and other factors that can influence business decisions and economic growth.
Indiana University law professor Dau-Schmidt said businesses typically look at states’ tax climate and workforce makeup before considering their right-to-work status, adding, “There’s dozens of things on the list that are more important than that.”
NM Impact
The impact a right-to-work law would have in New Mexico, which is not a heavily unionized state, remains unclear.
Tonjes of AED said New Mexico would immediately become a possible site for an increased number of job-creation projects.
“We believe New Mexico would see increased client activity that would lead to a greater number of announcements from new employers in the private sector expanding into the state,” Tonjes told the Journal in response to a question about such a law’s potential impact. “New Mexico would benefit from a more diversified economy.”
Rep. Antonio “Moe” Maestas, D-Albuquerque, questioned whether the New Mexico economy would benefit as a whole from right-to-work legislation, saying the business community has overlooked a key point.
While there’s a dispute over whether such laws actually spark job creation, he claimed other states’ experiences show any such jobs would likely be lower paying.
“Hopefully, in the Legislature we can look at this bill from a practical standpoint and not from an ideological standpoint,” Maestas told the Journal.
Of roughly 751,000 total workers, New Mexico had about 46,000 union members in the private and public sectors in 2013, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. That 6.2 percent union membership rate was far lower than the national average of 11.3 percent.
In all, about 55,000 workers were represented by unions in the state in 2013, meaning roughly 9,000 employees paid union dues but were not union members. Many of New Mexico’s union members are government employees, though private-sector industries like carpentry, film industry, plumbing and communications jobs are also frequently unionized.
MAESTAS: New jobs likely lower paying
By: Rosalie Rayburn (Albuquerque Journal)

Click here to view source article.

Study Concludes that Office Tenants Prefer Suburban Vibrant Centers over Traditional Single-Use Suburban Locations

January 16, 2015 by mcarristo

Download the report: naiop.org/preferredofficelocations
For close to a decade, based on anecdotes, real estate professionals have suspected that vibrant and walkable office environments are preferred over and perform better than single-use office locations. A new study, the first of its kind, tests this hypothesis across 40 plus U.S. office markets and concludes the following:
1. Do office tenants prefer CBDs to suburban areas? Sometimes they do, sometimes they don’t. Location preferences primarily depend on company priorities and on the area’s economic base and spatial structure.
2. Do office tenants prefer suburban vibrant centers to typical single-use suburban environments? Yes, they do.
3. Are office properties in CBDs performing better than those in suburban office areas? Yes, for rent level and rent changes; no difference in vacancy rates; no, for absorption (less absorption in CBDs).
4. Are office properties in suburban vibrant centers outperforming those in typical single-use suburban office areas? Yes, for almost all metrics.
5. Are suburban vibrant centers preferred to or performing better than CBDs in their market areas? Preference depends on the specific area; vibrant center performance is the same as or better than CBD performance.
The report, “Preferred Office Locations: Comparing Location Preferences and Performance of Office Space in CBDs, Suburban Vibrant Centers and Suburban Areas,” draws from expert opinion and property-level data and compares central business districts (CBDs) with their suburban areas in the 45 largest office markets in the United States. The 80-page report also analyzes 42 suburban vibrant centers compared to either nearby suburban office parks or the remainder of the office submarket surrounding the center.
“This thorough and data-driven report provides valuable insights for the commercial real estate industry into the emerging preferences of office tenants,” said Thomas J. Bisacquino, NAIOP president and CEO. “The report’s findings about the strong performance of vibrant centers–whether in strong downtowns or suburban areas–will help guide our members’ strategies when deciding where to develop new office space.”
The popularity of suburban vibrant centers comes from combining the best qualities of a suburban location with urban character. In the three largest office markets, examples include Stamford, Connecticut (New York City region) compared with the Stamford submarket; Old Town Pasadena (Los Angeles region) compared with the Pasadena/Arcadia/Monrovia submarket; and Ballston, located in Arlington, Virginia (Washington, D.C., region) compared with the neighboring Tysons Corner submarket. Characteristics such as mixed-use buildings, high density and walkable access to destination spots make suburban vibrant centers lively and appealing locations for work – and destinations outside of work hours.
Comparison metrics for the analysis using CoStar Group data were asking rent prices, vacancy rates and absorption rates. Overall tenant preferences revealed no strong preference for either downtown or suburban office space, with respondents about equally split between the two options. The preference narrows down to the specific company needs and market factors. For example, companies trying to recruit young talent, like technology start-ups, often seek a vibrant center location, which could be in either downtown or suburban areas.
When the suburban vibrant centers are compared to downtowns, the preference is location specific and needs to be qualified; strong CBDs are preferred over suburban vibrant centers, but if the CBD is weak, then the opposite holds true. Also, the most vibrant CBDs tend to be in larger office markets accessible by public transit. As density, critical mass and accessibility decrease, the CBD vibrancy also decreases, while the area’s automobile dependence increases.
When studying suburban vibrant centers compared to traditional suburban office developments, the results showed conclusively that suburban vibrant centers – featuring abundant professional opportunities, proximity to entertainment options, and availability of residential spaces – were strongly preferable. Many of these areas benefit from access to public transit systems – whether rail or bus – but some of the areas studied are only accessible by car.
“On the basis of my research to date, I believe that office properties in suburban vibrant areas will continue to out-perform traditional suburban properties,” said the report’s author, Dr. Emil Malizia. Malizia is a professor of city and regional planning and director of the Institute for Economic Development at the University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill; and president of Malizia & Associates, LLC.
By: Kathryn Hamilton (NAIOP)
Click here to view source article.

2015 SelectLeaders Network Hiring Trends Survey Report

January 15, 2015 by mcarristo

Perception often leads to reality. In the final weeks in December SelectLeaders Network conducts an annual industry-wide survey, in cooperation with the 10 premier Real Estate Professional Associations, whose Career Centers are powered by SelectLeaders. This year a rich mix of 988 Real Estate Professionals: Candidates, Employers, Principals, Top-line Managers, and HR Executives were surveyed, and shared in their own words their insights on the Real Estate Job Market and its prospects for 2015.
2015 “Frustrated Optimism”
73% of Real Estate Employers and Professionals responding predict the current economy will create new jobs in 2015. Compare this to 2011 when 71% reported that hiring either decreased (35%), or remained the same (36%). As one respondent summed up 2015:
“The Real Estate Market comes back last. That time is upon us.”
89% expect 2015 will meet or exceed 2014 hiring levels. Nearly half (46%) anticipate their company will increase hiring in 2015.
2014 saw a paradigm shift in the basis for compensation.
Traditionally based on experience, location, and individual performance, in 2014 compensation, at all levels, was based on increased revenue production. “Growth in revenue is demanded, with growth in head count constrained,” one respondent summed up. Another reported, “Every employee must contribute to the bottom line.” In 2015, many predict,”Wages should rise, the quit rate/churn rate should increase, and there will be more competition for talent.”
69% anticipate an increase in their total compensation in 2015. But as one respondent put it: “Continued push on productivity and value add.”
Over half of our survey (56%) received a year-end bonus entering 2014 and 53% saw a base salary increase last year. The perception for last year and the reality for nearly half of the respondents was that wages were flat or decreased but the findings show that over half of employers used bonuses to increase total compensation without committing to salary increases. With the talent market becoming a “Seller’s Market” in 2015 many perceived, “Firms will be required to offer more robust and competitive compensation packages to new employees in order to attract the best talent.”
The shoemaker’s children — our industry creates apartment and office complexes replete with bowling alleys, state of the art gyms and spas, luxury roof-top lounges, so we asked: Has your company enriched office, communal spaces, or policies to enhance your work-life experience? 78% of real estate respondents answered, “No.” (Yes answers included a new carpet and new office furniture.)
67% of real estate industry respondents did not use ALL of their allotted vacation time. In 2011, we reported that 85% of employees were asked to take on additional responsibilities for the same pay. In their own words, “One person is doing what three people did before.” In 2015 you reported: “The scales have tipped and my employer is acknowledging that doing more with less is no longer sustainable.”
When our industry reported on their own jobs, compensation, company, and sector, the findings were overwhelmingly optimistic. But peruse, in their own words, what your colleagues are saying could be the impediments to job growth, and their frustration with significant uncertainty possibly holding back hiring, and the general economy, from reaching its potential.
In 2014, did your base salary:

In 2015, do you expect your total cash compensation (base salary and bonus) to:

Did you receive a bonus in 2013?

Do you expect a bonus in 2014?

In 2015 do you expect your company’s hiring to:

In the past year, how much of your allotted vacation time did you use?

Has your company enriched office, communal spaces, or policies to enhance your work-life experience?

Do you believe that the pace of the current economy will create new jobs in 2015?

In your own words, please provide any of your perspectives and insights on the year ahead:

“Frustrated Optimism” – The Influences on Job Growth

“Although both new construction and jobs will continue to grow in 2015, I can see companies not hiring as quickly or filling their vacancies completely. I can see increased workloads for existing employees and wages only increasing slightly.”
“When will baby boomers in the industry retire???”
“There will be more mergers and buy-outs of competitors in the industry.”
“Too many companies are relying on automated resume review systems based on unrealistic expectations thus missing the needle in the haystack. The candidate who will work harder, smarter and has the transferable skill set to succeed.”
“Continued stream-lined technology or system interfacing processes will make the job market that more challenging.Baby boomers are getting pushed out from the job market in their mid-60s. Gen X and Millennials will find it hard to find and maintain work but will also age out of the workforce in their mid-40s. We are competing against 10 year olds doing full movie productions on their cell phone…”
“I believe the economy will remain stable the next 3 years. New housing and interest rates will dictate growth as always. The big issue is the lack of skilled workers in the construction industry! While the boomers are retiring we have failed to educate more skilled workers in this industry. We need to open more training facilities and increase wages to promote a higher level of talent to compete with other industries.”
“Banks are not lending money. Dodd-Frank bill destroyed the industry.”
“Still a lot of dancing around issues: Compliance and regulations create reporting requirements that hinder the ability to work smart. Sure hire people to push paper – no value add and it does not improve margins – more people to smile at in the morning and wait for the next cycle. Let me see – we had Sarbox in early 2000. Now Dodd-Frank – yeah right? Until you are allowed to fail and then be held accountable it will never change. Getting too close to the 2016 election – business will hold back if it looks like more regulation no need to risk the margin.”
The Lenders are lending again which directly correlates with real estate growth. New congress may slow regulation growth helping lenders as well. All eyes are on interest rates in 2015.”
” **********ASK THE FEDERAL RESERVE ( OUR) MASTERS”
“Land surveyors are very busy. I believe there are a lot of small and medium sized projects that will come to fruition in ’15 and ’16 leading to higher construction costs, higher material costs and entitlement bottlenecks.”
“It’s still ‘more work for less money’ but it is improving……..maybe the improvement seems too quick though and we don’t want to see another bubble burst.”
“Hope there are more salaried jobs in real estate than just commission.”
“Not anticipating any more financial systems to fail, the real estate market is continuing slow and steady growth where development and new construction are concerned. This will allow for the creation of other employment opportunities in different facets of the business in customer service, management, advisory services, construction and senior leadership.”
“Government chaos resulting in slower growth.”
“Companies likely to continue move to more outsourcing needed skill sets rather than internalizing through staff adds.”
“Jobs need to be created that narrow the wage gap between the lower tiers and the wealthy. That it is how real estate, both commercial, industrial, and residential with grow faster.”
“Too busy for vacation! Very discouraging trend and erodes work-life balance.”
“Although the economy is expanding and causing need for more real estate space (deals!), there will be fewer corporate jobs in real estate due to continued industry consolidation eliminating duplicate mid-level and senior level jobs.”
“Our Political System, Wall Street and Banks must display more integrity before significant true progress can be made.”
“Carefully watching any changes in interest rates.”
“Many apartment markets are becoming fully supplied, or oversupplied, which has brokers underwriting unrealistic vacancy and apartment rent growth. Yet many developers do not seem to be holding back on constructing more developments.”
“Due to low oil prices Mexico’s economy will suffer from inflation and less people will be able to buy properties. Mexican property values will remain the same or will decrease.”
“The market on whole is fragile. Certain pockets are strong but could turn negative quickly. Must be cautious on every transaction.”
“I believe the year will continue to have slow growth with consumers still slow to spend cash and use credit. While oil prices are declining, there is concern over probable increases to interest rates and the impact this will have on new construction starts, fracking in the Midwestern region and access to capital.”
“Job opportunities in selected markets. Employees leaving will not be replaced and work will be spread out among current employees. Achieving performance goals will be more difficult in this environment.”
“The U.S. economy wants to grow, but has been inhibited by regulatory and tax burdens. Republican control of both houses of Congress should help; at least the regulatory and tax burden will not become worse. The two markets in which I am active as a self-employed developer and investment advisor (Central Ohio; Southwest Florida) are both strengthening. Inquiries for Florida office and retail space are increasing. Land for single family development in the Columbus, Ohio area is increasingly scarce. Barring another national economic shock, 2015 should be a very good year.”
“If growth could continue at the steady pace we’ve seen, this period of growth could run for another 10 years. However, cheap energy will lead to short memories when it comes to the excesses that were a big part of the last downfall. If we can avoid over spending, at all levels, this period of growth could outlast anything we’ve seen in almost 40 years.
“I think in major metros jobs will continue to grow incomes are slowly edging up. I think there will be moderate net effective rent growth slowed by new deliveries. I think the big wild card to watch will be oil. This latest run, especially in places like TX, CO and North Dakota, have been heavily influenced by oil production. If slowing energy prices continues and consolidation begins to occur it will be a slower effect partially offset by higher disposable income for spending with lower oil prices. Interest rates should hold through 2016. Investment groups will start to sit on the side lines come March of 2016 while election directives shake out. Interest rates will pop up in 2017 and possible inflation as 2007 debt matures. Our Government will continue to stifle the private sector businesses.”
I believe that the commercial real estate markets will continue to prosper in 2015. Many of the zombie managers that are unable to raise capital (especially those that raised funds during the peak year of 2007 and have now approached the first extensions on their existing funds) will be absorbed or wither away, leaving the more successful firms able to thrive.
“Based on the information I’ve read and heard, I expect tempered growth, but growth nonetheless for several industries and job gains overall.+
“There appear to be many job openings, but employers have more extraordinary criteria when hiring for those positions. Experience is less valued than one would expect, salaries have gone down and benefits are pushed on to employees at extremely unaffordable rates.”

2015: Growth

“As a Realtor, it is always the case that the Real Estate Market comes back last. That time is upon us.”
“I see more projects in the pipeline which bodes well for hiring.”
“As unemployment continues to drop, employees will make a flight to quality employers or ones that are perceived as offering something more than a job.”
“Having graduated from UCSD in 2006, this is the first time in my career/adult life that I have seen headlines reflecting anything remotely resembling a “good” or “strong” job market. I am very optimistic for 2015.”
“The scales have tipped and my employer is acknowledging that doing more with less is no longer sustainable. I expect compensation to increase, promotions to become more readily available and hiring to accelerate in 2015.”
“More growth in the economy, and more competitive capital markets.”
“My business is affordable housing management and development. The wider community now understands the huge unmet need for more in the greater Boston area. New state initiatives for funding are being initiated as federal dollars shrink. It is a hopeful development.”
“Cautious growth. Rising interest rates. Competitive acquisition and lending activity. Continued hiring throughout 2015.”
“Measured improvement and cautious optimism for CRE and CREF.”
“Having graduated from UCSD in 2006, this is the first time in my career/adult life that I have seen headlines reflecting anything remotely resembling a “good” or “strong” job market. I am very optimistic for 2015.”
“Thankful to be employed again after spending most of 2014 looking for work.”
“Slow and steady growth would be expected with more developers moving ahead with new development.”
“I feel that job growth, income levels and home prices will continue to rebound, but slowly.”
“Despite some analyst’s predictions, I expect capital markets to continue to prosper with exceptional performance in healthcare, transportation and real estate. I expect job growth to match and/or slightly exceed 2014 job growth and continued market stabilization. I believe volatility is a sign that investors are willing to take some bets as a result of an increasing level of confidence in the market.”
“I now work for the federal government and as such the trends are different than in private industry. I began looking for permanent employment after being laid off in February of 2014. I went on several interviews but did not land a job right away. I decided to become self-employed while still passively looking for a permanent position. After I landed a temp to hire position in September of 2014 and was offered a full time permanent position in December of 2014. My company has formed an investments department. Our department is growing. Since I was started in September we have hired two more member to our team and are actively looking for two more. The reason for the increase in the number of available positions is the formation of a JV with an investment firm out of Shanghai, China. I believe the real estate industry in the US is going through a transformation due to the influx of Chinese investment in the US. I believe the slowing of the Chinese economy is enticing investment in U.S. real estate. The EB-5 immigration visa program, along with weak property rights laws in China is having a real effect on the outflow of money from the country. These two factors along with the Chinese government’s crackdown on graft and corruption has investors questioning the safety of their funds. I believe this trend still has some time until it subsides. I believe it is good for the US real estate market.”
“Plenty of financial analysis and hiring of acquisition/development talent suggests that the real estate industry will be expanding their project portfolios in 2015 which in turn will increase hiring.”
“Continued slow economic growth over the course of the year. Multi-Family market will begin to fall off as new supply floods the market. Home purchases should show level to moderate increases.”
“I think that growth in my industry, which is multifamily, will continue to increase.”
“I work in distressed assets. Several of the regions where I manage assets continue to face economic challenges that negatively impact the real estate outlook.”
“I’m receiving lots of interest from recruiters and have noticed that there is a lot of hiring in this sector. I expect that to continue.”
“As confidence grows, greed will start coming back, and with interest rates rising the real estate cycle will reach a new peak. The unavoidable down-slope will follow a few years later. But in 2015, everyone is buying, buying, buying.”
“Good year for apartment growth–starting to see interest in commercial deals. “Real estate investment is expected to grow beyond previous years. One indicator is increased inquiries for available land for development within transitional neighborhoods.”
“I am not as optimistic overall, but there are pockets that are seeing, and will continue to see, growth, such as healthcare and seniors housing.
“I believe 2015 is going to be a positive year with extensive movement in the employment sector. It is going to a good year for the stock market with the exception of oil and gas. Oil and gas output by OPAC will need stiffer regulations to avoid massive layoffs in oil and gas industry in the United States. Home prices should continue to increase at a modest rate. The political arena will gain momentum as the Republicans infuse large amounts of capital for the 2016 Presidential election.”
“Professionals are still doing more with less; however, I do see more hiring and back filling of positions.”
“My expectations for the year ahead are that the economy will experience growth and new job creations will increase but only modestly. I believe that real estate/housing in particular will experience little to no growth as first time homebuyers continue to struggle with credit/underwriting requirements. Competition for mid-career professionals like myself will continue to increase as more and more complete schooling and specialized training but continue to compete for fewer mid-career higher paying jobs. Overall, I expect the New Year to bring much of the same as seen in the last two years. Job creation will likely be in the service industry where pay is low and hardly enough to keep up with inflation.”
“Should be a good one.”
“I think the technology sector will lead to more jobs in the United States as we are a leader in that industry. I also think manufacturing jobs will lead to growth in the middle class. I think these two factors will result in real estate values to rise again.”
“Will be a rough future for those whose well-being is tied to residential real estate. There needs to be more thought on how to cultivate more 1st time homebuyers. Commercial real estate has brighter future.”
“Positively, with incremental increases, again.”

2015: No Growth

“There is too much uncertainty to know how the economy will move.”
“Interest rates will dictate future real estate changes mainly as it relates to FFO. That may dictate the need to lean up payrolls.”
“Everywhere we look we see signs that the economy is in real trouble and so, in anticipation of the upcoming crash, we are hoarding cash, reducing development and acquisition personnel (also to save on the soaring healthcare costs) and selling into the bubble.”
“2015 I expect will be a year of consolidations and job elimination in favor of investor profits.”
“I do not see my industry advancing in 2015. Increased government control is a detriment to the real estate valuation industry.”
“Much of the job growth in the country seems to be in the IT industry. These firms (both new and old) don’t need the large number of people to produce similar revenues and profits of traditional industries). Unless there is significant job growth in industries outside of IT and retail, there is limited demand for office space except in a few urban areas. Many firms in a A/E are only hiring low- medium salaried staff. Firms can’t or actually won’t raise fees since there are plenty of up and coming firms willing to work for a reduce fees (often performing free work just to get work). Developer know this and are taking full advantage during these tight times.”
“I believe the stock market is overvalued and interest rates have been kept low for too long. As the fed begins to raise interest rates, I see a chilling effect on the economy.”
“While HUD has received Commitment Authority of $30 Billion, they will not likely utilize it all. The trend will be affordable construction and LEAN/Healthcare deals in FHA/HUD Commercial RE. Given lower volumes additional staffing will be unnecessary and employee count overall should decrease.”
“Many retailers are shuttering locations, which means less of a need for retail real estate professionals. Real estate developers are largely outsourcing their in-house leasing positions to brokers.”
“All new hiring will be offset by lay-offs from different sectors.”
“DC economy is weak. Office already suffering, so multifamily is probably overbuilt. With dollar strengthening and exports consequently harder, tough to imagine catalysts for strength. Imagine some shaking-out that has begun in office intensifies, moves to multifamily, industrial, etc.”
“The industry has consolidated and contracted in an unprecedented manner. I do not see any significant growth for another two years. Labor market is vague, dynamic, unstable, temporary, and uncertain. Outside forces continue to erode economic, political, and social confidence. Internal forces continue to strangle business growth, and this is seen in every sector of the economy.”
I was employed by Sprint and was recently, November 7, 2014, laid-off, part of a 7,000 person reduction in force.
“I believe the economy is in a bubble and will take a huge drop in 2015. In 2007, I predicted the Dow will fall from 13000 to under 7000 and oil to drop from $113 a barrel to under $50. Oil is now dropping, the Dow will follow. In my opinion we just had a 6 year Bear Market Rally. I am looking for the Dow to drop to 4000. Real estate will follow. Interest rates will sky rocket.”
“Dismal.”

Compensation:

“Continued push on productivity and value add.”
“Firms will be required to offer more robust and competitive compensation packages to new employees in order to attract the best talent.”
“I see companies demanding a lot more from an employee (tasks and overtime wise) while pay remains relatively the same. I also see many unemployed people, but very few quality candidates who possess skills and experience OR the right attitude/hunger for learning (those are usually the employed ones). I think the new generation with its sense of entitlement has produced a lazy unmotivated workforce, unfortunately. That’s just been my observation in the past year while trying to hire people for lower to mid-level accounting positions. My company is rapidly growing (industrial acquisitions & property management) and we’re constantly hiring. Judging by the traffic in LA (which got so much worst in the past 2 years), I’d say the economy is doing just fine here and I believe there are plenty of jobs out there.”
“Middle Managers will continue to find it difficult if not impossible to find opportunities. New Jobs will be created at the entry level and more experienced people will apply. It will be interesting to see if employers hire experienced people; probably not.”
“I see my company continuing to extract more from fewer staff. The trend is to not replace staff as they leave, but rather spread those tasks amongst remaining. This has already caused issues with things not getting done in a timely manner, and results in poor morale. I also anticipate there will be deliberate cutting of staff. While there may be bonuses paid to those who remain, I expect to see small to no salary increases. I don’t see this getting better in 2015.”
“2015 will be a lot like 2014 in terms of economic robustness, but for different reasons. I expect 2015 to be much better. Wages should rise, the quit rate/churn rate should increase, and there will be more competition for talent.”
“The real estate industry lags behind in remuneration levels for marketing professionals. There is a strong trend towards standardization and brand policing rather than innovation in creating compelling stories for connecting services to customers. There are bright lights out there but they seem to be outside rather than inside the various big real estate houses.”
“I haven’t recovered from the great recession, though many others have. Our company’s stock is at an all-time high, but the employees are still struggling.”
“Seems as though the job market is loosening up some (finally) but that compensation packages are lower than in past years as firms adjusted them during the recession and they haven’t caught back up. Hopefully as the market tightens this dynamic will change.”
“More of the same. Good for real estate because of job growth, cheap capital, and global flow of capital. Overall economy: Job creation strong, but wage growth way too low. Cheap oil may be a wash as taxes increase and the general economy may slow due to global economic decline. Cheers!”
“Contrary to what the public thinks or reads, the job market for experienced real estate professionals is poor. The mindset to hire less experienced staff (no market experience) for cheaper rates and think they will have what it takes to keep companies afloat is reminiscent of the short term ideology that created real estate problems only six years ago. Only now with low interest rates, the bottom will be even worse than before because the drop in property value will be even more severe.”
“I feel like hiring and increase in compensation depends on the part of the real estate industry that you are in. For-profit multifamily developers seem to be rebounding and demand is strong. But not-for-profit developers dependent on shrinking government subsidy to build affordable housing are struggling, despite the improved economy.”
“Property management salaries on average will continue to slide as employers continue the trend of hiring less experienced candidates to fill positions that would have previously been reserved for more experienced candidates.”
“I do believe the pace of current U.S. economic growth will create new jobs in 2015, but not increase salaries. A cost of living increase would help a person’s overall salary.”
“In my opinion employers are able to take advantage of the economy by adopting the attitude that employees should simply be happy to have a job. I am hearing industry wide that employees are overwhelmed with the amount of responsibility yet receiving less pay.”
“Job creation is in the low end not middle management and upper tier.”
“U.S. will remain in economic turmoil with job growth in non-strategic areas and lower paying jobs.”
I am unemployed and have been for just over a year. I would hope that things pick up. While employers may attempt to hold the line on salary increases to maintain their so-called “cost to produce” or profitability/bonus goals, In 2015, many high value employees will find better opportunities with the competition. In the mortgage business, we are seeing a mass exodus of high value employees in search of better pay and opportunities, and the resulting cost to the incumbent employer is recruiting costs, higher salaries, re-training, and loss of job morale. I am happy to say that capitalism is alive and well, after so many months and years of stagnant growth.

When Will It Peak

The development cycle will peak for major markets with secondary markets peaking in 2016. We will then be in a period of stagnant rents followed by the down cycle (acquisition phase).
“The peak of the cycle will be in the next 6 months. Noticeable drop in rents by the end of year.”
“I believe that the economy has not yet cleared all the hurdles needed for significant job or wage growth. I look for an economic slowdown sometime after Mid-year 2015.”
“I think the year ahead will trend similarly to 2014. I think job growth and small wage increases will remain consistent with 2014.”
“I see no indication the employment will decrease.”
“Our division will increase personnel by nearly 5 percent in first quarter. Leasing team, though, will decrease in size slightly.”
“Plodding global growth or full on global recession. Who knows?”
“I don’t think the job growth will be substantial or create new professional level jobs.”

The Pace of Hiring

“VERY Volatile…..”
“Should be on pace to meet or exceed 2014.”
“Pace of hiring is overestimated.”
“Continued improvement but at a slow pace.”
“SLUGGISH ECONOMY.”
“Full speed ahead.”
“Slow, uneven progress.”
“Continued improvement but at a slow pace.”
“Continued slow and steady growth in 2015.”
“Hope to keep up the pace.”
“I don’t project any major changes for 2015. I think we continue to grow at a slow but steady pace.”

The Politics of Job Growth

“I am in a market dominated by state government (Sacramento) that experienced extreme job loss. While the state has stabilized, it has left the local commercial real estate market in a depressed state due to the overbuilding during the previous boom. It will be sometime before demand, then rents will increase to a level to justify development. Housing was lifted by private equity purchases without an equivalent level of demand from SF buyers, therefore, may not experience any appreciable level of increase in home prices for an extended period coupled with a return to urban lifestyle related to millennials. Multifamily demand (operations and investment) is strong, and what development is occurring in this market is mostly MF, albeit oriented towards tax incentive/low income and infill.”
“Due to the Affordable Care Act (obamacare), hiring will decline due to quota cut backs. This is the primary reason why my current employer will be cutting 1500 positions in January, 2015. Employment will continue to regress until the ACA is repealed.”
“Good for the haves, not good for the have-nots. Washington too involved in everyone’s business.”
“I don’t expect the national economy to change at all because of the lame duck incumbent democratic president & too much turmoil throughout the world.”
Chaos will continue with more disruption in US due to Obama & Congress being dysfunctional; singularly & collectively.”
“Two more years of Obama will keep things slow until we get someone who believes in free enterprise.”
“Until there is a new face in the White House, there is not much hope for anything but continued stupidity, thus minimum job growth, a continued sputtering national economy, and radical racial divide, to keep the general population’s eyes focused on something besides the real problem!!!”
“Until the current administration in this country is out of office, nothing will change. Once that is accomplished, things will start moving again.”
“I believe that we are still struggling as a nation and hope that arrangements will be made to focus on American Citizens before we focus on illegal aliens coming to our country.”
“The US is headed for deflation.”
“Other than political talking points, there are no real indications or signs of things improving. Best case things may stay the same.”
“I am not very hopefully given the current direction the country is headed in. Lack of leadership at the federal level does not provide for a good climate for growth. Under the current leadership I have seen my own economic position steadily decline.
“I believe that a rosier than reality picture has been painted for all through the media to incentivize all to keep working hard and sacrificing for those that no longer wish to put forth the necessary minimal effort to positively contribute to our society. They choose not to make an effort because they feel things are owed to them just because of who they are or because of perceived slights. Don’t see this changing until the bubble bursts and all grow up. Thank you for the opportunity to comment.”
“There will be positive hiring numbers reported, but nothing substantial; there will still be too many nonworking people who are not counted as the unemployed because they no longer qualify for benefits. Not enough new executive jobs will be offered, so the hiring will be amongst the less-skilled. This is positive for the lower class, but not great for the middle-class. The economic situation may stabilize in a positive manner due to the lower oil prices. Purchasing power will decrease slightly too, since wages will not increase. Although lower oil means lower production and shipping costs, companies will want to keep the gain in profits, so they will not lower prices. They have suffered through several years of economic recession and want to start reporting/retaining the profit increases. The lack of confidence in government will continue through 2015 – the Republicans will not have enough time (ability?) to enact legislation to demonstrate a solid course for the country. And, President 0bama will not be motivated to work with Congress on any of the sensitive issues since he will wish to make his base (and himself) happy. It is largely history repeating itself for the 7th straight year with a few narrow rays of sunlight.”

Location Location Location

“No place better than Texas. Houston will continue to lead the nation in economic growth and prosperity.”
“Apartment companies will do well. A perfect storm in Denver with 10 to 15% rent growth.”
“Real estate is blowing up in Denver!”
“Construction in NY metro area is seeing lots of growth in both projects and employee hiring. Don’t let it fool you it’s not so robust in other areas.”
“I am currently working for a vacation ownership resort and would much prefer to go back to real estate property management. I feel the economy is doing well and hope to find more opportunities available in the Washington DC area in 2015.”
“I live in Washington DC. As you know, the housing and real estate industry has and is booming. Commercial Real Estate is at an all-time high. But, the residential real estate industry is complex. Many are shut out of affordable housing in leasehold and freehold. My findings of this matter are due to working with the Mauriel Bowser Campaign for Washington, DC Mayor’s Race. We polled the residents of the city about housing in Washington DC. People are stunned at what it cost.”

By: SelectLeaders (CCIM Institute)
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