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Archives for January 2020

Eight Predictions for the Industrial Sector in 2020

January 6, 2020 by CARNM

Industrial properties have been highly sought-after by investors for the past several years. Will that trend continue in 2020?

New project deliveries, continued cannabis legalization, a decline in manufacturing, faster e-commerce deliveries and the upcoming presidential election will all have an impact on the U.S. industrial sector in 2020, experts say. Here are eight predictions for the industrial sector in the new year:

  1. The rush to cannabis production will likely accelerate in 2020, as more states legalize marijuana for recreational use, attracting investors to the higher returns cannabis-related real estate provides compared to more traditional property types, according to Chuck Taylor, director of operations for Englewood Construction, which collaborates with cannabis firms on cultivation and dispensary projects.
  2. Demand for “last mile” warehouse space will continue to grow in 2020, as consumers demand same-day and next-day delivery and retailers intensify their delivery efforts to complete with e-commerce giants like Amazon and Walmart, says Nat Kunes, senior vice president of investment management at AppFolio, a property software firm. As a result, he expects to see conversion of traditional retail space to distribution facilities.
  3. With limited space options and vacancies at historic lows, many U.S. industrial markets will experience higher than usual lease renewal rates in 2020, according to real estate services firm CBRE. However, vacancy levels will likely remain flat or increase slightly in markets with significant new supply deliveries. In addition, real estate services firm Transwestern predicts that new leasing velocity will decelerate in markets with limited space availability. The good news is that new industrial construction is expected to flatten out.
  4. Consulting firm Deloitte predicts a decline in manufacturing job growth, which began last year, but will likely continue due to the historically tight labor market. This will constrain the momentum in the manufacturing sector, along with increasing disruption from new technologies and continued volatility in trade policy decisions. The manufacturing sector has also been impacted by decreased business spending—a result of uncertainty over the trade war with China, says Richard Barkham, real estate economist with CBRE. Based on the Oxford Economic Model, which anticipates tapering manufacturing GDP growth levels, Deloitte has lowered its growth projection for this sector from 2.0 percent to 1.3 percent.
  5. Warehouse and distribution properties will also be impacted by labor shortages in the coming year. Automation, robotics, drones and autonomous trucking are revolutionizing the way goods are manufactured, stored and distributed, but in some cases, technology has made human labor more important than ever and is driving demand for a more skilled labor force, says David Friedland, executive director and Chicago industrial group leader with real estate services firm Cushman & Wakefield. As operations become more complex for occupiers, there will be a heightened focus on outsourcing, paving the way for growth in the third-party logistics sector, according to CBRE.
  6. Investors/developers of industrial properties will be more focused on designing facilities with on-site amenities that attract workers and locating them in proximity to nearby retail options and population centers, Friedland notes.
  7. The new year may see an increase in industrial development co-existing with retail uses, with industrial space added onto retail centers or replacing traditional bricks-and-mortar stores. Investment management firm CA Ventures, for example, recently broke ground on a speculative class-A warehouse in Elk Grove Village, Ill., near O’Hare International Airport, that is adding 146,029 sq. ft. to an existing retail center, where 7,800 sq. ft. of space will continue to house retail and restaurant uses.
  8. CBRE expects the industrial sector to remain the darling for investors. Investment volumes, however, are expected to decrease by 5 to 10 percent in the coming year compared to 2019, as investor caution collides with high asset prices.

By: Patricia Kirk (NREI)
Click here to view source article

Filed Under: All News

December 2019 Commercial Market Trends

January 2, 2020 by CARNM

View a New Mexico Market Trends Summary Report, which includes December 2019 Commercial Market Trends. This report includes the total number of listings, asking lease rates, asking sales prices, days on the market and total square feet available.
Disclaimer: All statistics have been gathered from user-loaded listings and user-reported transactions. We have not verified accuracy and make no guarantees. By using the information, the user acknowledges that the data may contain errors or other nonconformities. Brokers should diligently and independently verify the specifics of the information you are using.

Filed Under: All News

New Census Report Offers Insights into ABQ

January 2, 2020 by CARNM

The role of grandparents looms large in the care of children in Albuquerque households.

There are 222,748 households in Albuquerque, and more than 26% of those households have one or more people age 65 or older.

Of 10,782 grandparents living with grandchildren, 44.2% were responsible for the basic needs of their grandchildren, according to recently released profiles from the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey.

The numbers, five-year averages and estimates from 2014 through 2018, offer snapshots of the community in selected social, economic, housing and demographic measurements.

An average of 15.1% of households in Albuquerque received food stamps (or SNAP, Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program) in the years 2014 through 2018. Of those households, an estimated 46.3% had children under 18, and 25.5% had one or more people age 60 years and over. Of all households receiving SNAP benefits, 31.4% were families with a female head of house and no husband present, while 30.4% of families had two or more household members working in the past 12 months.

All told, 76.2% of Albuquerque households had some kind of income, and of those households 28.9% received Social Security and 19.3% received retirement income other than Social Security. The average income from Social Security was $18,340. These income sources are not mutually exclusive, and some households received income from more than one source.

From 2014 through 2018, an average of 17.6% of Albuquerque residents had incomes below the federal poverty level and 24.7% of children under age 18 lived in poverty. Among residents age 18-64, 16.8% were below the poverty level.

On the employment front, 59.5% of people age 16 and older were employed, while just over 36% were not in the labor force. The survey did not indicate how many of those people over age 16 were retired or unable to work because of a disability.

Among those in the workforce, just over 75% were wage and salary workers employed in the private sector; just over 19% worked in federal, state or local government; and just over 5% were self employed.

The median income of households in Albuquerque was $51,128, with 8.5% of households having incomes below $10,000 a year and 4.3% having household incomes over $200,000 a year. The largest group of households, 17.3%, had incomes ranging from $50,000 to $74,999 a year.

The median earnings for full-time, year-round workers was $42,489. Broken down by gender, the median full-time year-round earnings for male workers was $46,462, while the median earnings for females was $39,511.

Among the civilian non-institutionalized population in Albuquerque from 2014 through 2018, an average of 91.1% had health insurance coverage and 8.9% had none. Private coverage was used by 60.9% of residents and government coverage was used by 41.4%. The percentage of children under age 19 with no health insurance coverage was 3.8%.

About 10% of Albuquerque residents were foreign-born. Of them, 43% were naturalized U.S. citizens, 84.9% of them entered the country before 2010, and 63% come from Latin American countries.

Among Albuquerque residents age 5 and older, 28.7% spoke a language other than English at home, the most common of those languages being Spanish, spoken by 22.7%. Just over 7% reported that they did not speak English very well.

Of Albuquerqueans reporting to be of one race alone, 73.5% were white, 3.2% were black, 4.6% were American Indian and Alaska Native, 2.8% were Asian, 0.1% were Native Hawaiian and other Pacific islander, and 11.3% were some other race.

An estimated 4.5% reported belonging to two or more races.

Nearly half, 49% of Albuquerque residents, reported they were Hispanic, about the same percentage as the state as a whole, and 39.4% of residents reported they were white non-Hispanic. People of Hispanic origin may be of any race.

Of people age 25 and older, 89.7% had at least graduated from high school and 34.7% had a bachelor’s degree or higher. More than 10% did not complete high school.

Albuquerque’s average school enrollment from 2014 through 2018 was 149,097. That number includes nursery school enrollment of 7,801, kindergarten through 12th grade enrollment of 93,022, and college or graduate school enrollment of 48,274.

Among the city’s non-institutionalized population, 13.2% reported they had a disability. The likelihood of having a disability varied by age – from 3.6% of people under 18 years old, to 11.4% of people 18 to 64 years old, and to 36% of those 65 and over. The survey did not distinguish between physical and mental disabilities.

Albuquerque residents are apparently not environmentally conscious when it comes to personal transportation. More than 80% of those employed drove to work alone in the years 2014-2018, while just over 9% carpooled. The average commute time to work was 21.6 minutes.

By: Rick Nathanson (ABQ Journal)
Click here to view source article

Filed Under: All News

Investors Step Up Scrutiny of Flex Office Space

January 2, 2020 by CARNM

“The momentum will continue to bring new models, players, and customers into flex space.”

JLL research predicts that 30% of the US office market will comprise flexible space by 2030.
One of the drivers behind this growth, ironically, is the uncertainty in the economy. “It’s not just a reflection of current circumstances, such as the ongoing trade war or Brexit, but the rapid shifts in business that make it hard for companies to know what they are going to look like from year to year, never mind in three-, five- or 10-years’ time,” according to Ben Munn, global head of flexible space at JLL, author of a recent post on flex space.
Cost reduction for businesses is another reason flex office space is expected to continue to flourish. Co-working investments are expected to maintain momentum over the next five years as corporate real estate executives continue to view flexible workspace as a necessary offering for their employees and crucial to operational cost reductions, according to a Cushman & Wakefield report about corporate perceptions of the value of flexible workspace and co-working strategies. Companies generally see it as cost-neutral and a way to reduce their real estate costs, according to David Smith, Americas head of occupier research at Cushman & Wakefield.
Investors have taken note of this growth and are stepping up their evaluations of the business and operating models to see what works best. “They have their magnifying glasses out,” Munn writes. “The question is what comes next.”
This increased scrutiny comes as more players enter the market. It’s not just real estate investors becoming more interested with flexible space, Munn reports, but private equity players are also assembling operating businesses. “Even though this market has been around for decades, it’s going through a rapid evolution,” Munn says. “The momentum will continue to bring new models, players, and customers into flex space.”

WeWork’s Troubles

Inevitably in a relatively new space, certain providers will experience trouble—with WeWork being the example that comes immediately to mind. To a certain extent, though, the market has shrugged off WeWork’s problems. Zach Aarons, for instance, a partner at PropTech Venture Capital fund MetaProp, told GlobeSt.com in an earlier article.
“Another flex office provider could come in and take the leases on the cheap or the landlords will take back the keys and try and do it themselves,” he says. “I think everybody in CRE is looking at what opportunities are there.”
Other providers flounder because they didn’t get their pricing or branding right, according to Munn.

The Best Approach

These challenges are adding urgency to investors’ quest to find the best approach.
There is existing research on the subject. A report last year from CBRE looked at office transactions, and found that 40% of buildings with flexible space traded at a higher value than the average office building in the market while 52% of buildings traded on par with the market average. This was, though, not a definitive link. As CBRE pointed out, flexible space is more common in newer or renovated office buildings, and that could account for the boost in pricing among some of the properties. Also, office spaces in general have seen an upward trend in pricing as well.
Despite the uncertainty, investors are pushing to put more rigor around valuations, taking into account the strength of the operator as well as the income premium, Munn writes in his post.
There is also a focus on operating models. Listed flexible workspace group IWG, which owns the Regus brand, has typically leased office space. But it’s now seeking to expand through franchising, Munn says.
Some landlords are offering flexible space in their own office buildings. In some cases, landlords are operating their own flexible workspace brands, building an in-house team to manage the space, he writes.
Other landlords are operating in partnership with flexible workspace providers. The flexible workspace element might be launched with the provider’s branding, or as “white label” space, with no provider branding, meaning the flexible workspaces appear integrated with the landlord’s offering, according to the post.
In short, there is a mix of models on the market right now that investors must evaluate. “Everybody is either spinning up their own brands, buying a company, spinning out their own brand or partnering with any operator that’s not named WeWork,” Aarons says. “There is a flurry of activity.”
Munn believes most landlords will prefer management contracts or partnerships in the future, in line with hotels. “The likelihood is that the self-operating model for landlords will be limited,” he says.
By: Erika Morphy (GlobeSt)
Click here to view source article

Filed Under: All News

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