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Archives for September 2020

The Future of Retail Includes a Drop in Productivity

September 11, 2020 by CARNM

As brick-and-mortar sales fall, retail sales per square foot has plummeted.

A lot has been written about the demise of retail.
In April, UBS projected that 100,000 brick-and-mortar stores could close permanently by 2025, as online sales capture 25% of total retail sales.
The Fall 2020 Retail Spotlight Report from Colliers International backs this general sentiment, saying that the need for physical stores is likely to continue its downward trend well into the latter part of 2020. This will force retailers to take a closer look at how much space they actually need.
“The economic consequences for retailers’ brick-and-mortar stores and profit margins will push retailers to rationalize store occupancy numbers and location and consider cutting back on physical space,” according to The Fall 2020 Retail Spotlight Report.
Now, the rise of online sales and the effects of the pandemic is showing up in retail productivity. In 2014, the sales per square foot of retail came in at $396.2 per square foot, according to GlobalData analysis. By 2019, as online shopping had grown in popularity, sales per square foot fell to $382.9.
After COVID 19, there has been a dramatic drop in retail productivity. Sales per square foot of retail plummeted to $338.3 in 2020, according to The Fall 2020 Retail Spotlight Report.
With rampant layoffs and salary reductions, Americans have less money to spend on goods. When they do decide to buy something, they’ll be searching for a deal, according to
Consumers’ shift toward value first value was actually apparent in 2019—before COVID 19. Resale spending hit $29 billion last year, growing 25% faster than the broader retail sector, according to Colliers.
Still the shift towards value increased this year. In Q4 2019, the percentage of consumers trying to minimize spending by focusing on low prices was between 17.6% to 18.9%, according to a GlobalData analysis. In May 2020, this percentage jumped to 32.4 before falling slightly to 29.6% in July.
The trend toward resale accelerated in the past few months as ThredUp, Depop, Poshmark and Vestiaire Collective have boasted double-to-triple-digit growth. Colliers expects resale to overtake the traditional thrift and donation segment by 2024. By 2029, it expects resale to exceed $80 billion in value, which will outpace fast-fashion’s estimate of $43 billion.
“The number of consumers seeking deals or discounts to offset essential and non-essential purchases will likely persist,” according to The Fall 2020 Retail Spotlight Report. “Opportunities to offer premium products and services will be scarce, leaving room for mainstream retail to create value price points to attract customers.”
Source: “The Future of Retail Includes a Drop in Productivity”

Filed Under: COVID-19

Solving the CRE Technology Gap

September 9, 2020 by CARNM

More than half of property owners want to implement technology, but many operators struggle to find the right tech solution.

A new report from Building Engines called The CRE Technology Gap explores the current relationship between technology and real estate ownership. More than half of real estate operators want to implement more technology and 84% of owners believe that technology can help the business meet all of its operational goals. In addition, 89% of property owners believe that technology is shaping the commercial real estate industry. So, it is clear that technology is playing an increasingly important role in real estate operations; however, many operators still struggle to find the right technology solution.
One challenge facing the industry is the need for better quality technology. Operators want technologies that can increase revenue, deliver the best occupant experience and reduce their operating costs. According to the survey, 51% of owners said that the right technology could streamline operations, while 49% said that it could help make decisions quicker and 48% said that they could more effectively respond to occupant needs. However, current technology needs are not being met. 30% of owners said that the current program is providing acceptable or pool value. As a result, many operators are making changes. In fact, 41% of operators said that they changed from one technology solution to another and 34% said that they adopted a new technology solution. In addition, operators are looking for technology solutions that impact the occupant experience. More efficient operations could impact the occupant experience, according to 74% of those surveyed.
Building an efficient tech platform isn’t necessarily as complicated as many operators believe. Efficient tech platforms could include one to three tech tools using a streamlined arsenal. Of those surveyed, 83% said that a small set of tech platforms would be enough to streamline the business and 65% are already implementing a small-tool technology strategy. There are three primary pillars of tech tools that companies should implement, and those include leasing, accounting and building operations. In addition, owners have named rent/income tracking, financial performance, project management, tenant communications and survey request management as the top tasks that technology tools can support.
Despite the fact that technology inclusion is still new in commercial real estate, owners seem to have a keen understanding of how technology can drive value in the business. Of those surveyed, 88% said that security and data privacy regulations were extremely or very important; 77% said that speed to implementation was extremely important and 73% said that the ability to add tools or modules was extremely important. However, some respondents also noted challenges in implanting quality technology. 32% of respondents said that tools don’t integrate well; 29% said that it is a challenge to get tenants to participate or use tech tools and 28% were concerned with security.
Ultimately, the survey outlines two major ways that technology will impact NOI. First, increased software adoption will help owners compare platforms and create optimal efficiency. Second, owners should convert static documentation, like Excel, to a more modern, tech-enabled platform.
Source: “Solving the CRE Technology Gap”

Filed Under: COVID-19

Tenants Get Creative as They Look to Exit a Lease

September 9, 2020 by CARNM

If a store can’t survive, a buyout may be the best option.

If a landlord thinks a tenant can survive after the COVID economic crisis passes, they’re usually motivated to work on payment plans, according to Luis Martinez-Monfort, founding partner of law firm Gardner Brewer Martinez-Monfort.
“The appetite to work through forbearance from both the tenant and landlord is pretty high because I don’t think landlords believe, dependent upon the type of tenant they have, that there’s someone who’s immediately going to backfill a space,” Martinez-Monfort says.
In a stable economy, Martinez-Monfort says there might be multiple groups that want to try their business concept into your restaurant. During COVID, that isn’t happening. “I don’t know if there are a lot of restaurant concepts knocking on the door behind a tenant who failed,” he says. “There’s not a lot of people seeking to start restaurants right now.”
If they think their tenant has a chance, Martinez-Monfort says landlords are deferring payments to the end of a lease or spreading them out throughout the lease. “They’re coming up with delayed payment methodologies to resolve the inability of that tenant to pay,” he says
If there is no structured forbearance agreement, tenants are looking for other exits, including buying themselves out of their lease. That is usually only a solution if bankruptcy is not a viable option for them, according to Martinez-Monfort.
“I think you’re seeing a lot of landlords and tenants working through that [a lease buyout],” Martinez-Monfort says. “The landlord is saying, ‘Pay me what you can, we’ll close out the lease and I’ll try to get a new tenant.’ It’s happening at a higher frequency [than usual]. You normally wouldn’t see a ton of that. But I think you’re going to start seeing more of it.”
For many smaller stores, this is a viable option. Martinez-Monfort says most small mom-and-pop stores won’t file for bankruptcy. They’ll just tell the landlord that they can’t pay.
“They typically won’t go to bankruptcy because there’s no benefit to it,” Martinez-Monfort says. “They can try to do the best they can with a judgment down the line, or they can try to reach some amicable resolution with the landlord [on partial payment]. So you can close that chapter.”
Unfortunately, Martinez-Monfort forecasts a lot of these situations arising over the coming years. “I think you’re going to see a lot of that in small mom-and-pop landlord-tenant disputes,” he says. “These small businesses are going to be the ones that always suffer the most.”
Now that their PPP loans have expired, Martinez-Monfort sees a lot of mom-and-pop stores seeking creative ways to get out of their leases.
“Some of this [tenants’ problems] has been suppressed because tenants have the ability to pay if they apply their PPP funds,” he says. “The PPP funds have artificially stabilized the market to a certain extent.”
Source: “Tenants Get Creative as They Look to Exit a Lease”

Filed Under: COVID-19

Amazon, Big-Box Chains, 3PLs Among the Most Rapidly Expanding Industrial Tenants

September 8, 2020 by CARNM

With e-commerce sales booming, these companies are leasing up new distribution and fulfillment facilities.
Online sales shot up during the COVID-19 quarantine, causing many companies to rethink their logistics strategies. As a result, a number of e-commerce players are aggressively expanding their physical footprints to improve their fulfillment and delivery capabilities.
According to data from the U.S. Census Bureau, e-commerce sales accounted for 16.1 percent of total retail sales in the second quarter of 2020. On a non-adjusted basis, the estimated second quarter total for U.S. e-commerce sales was $200.7 billion, an increase of 37.0 percent from the first quarter and up 44.5 percent year-over-year.

That change in the retail marketplace is being driven by consumers and is here to stay, according to Greg Healy, senior vice president for supply chain solutions and workforce analytics in Colliers International’s Inland Empire office in Southern California. “We aren’t going back, so companies need to learn how to embrace and succeed in this new paradigm,” he says. A retailer might not necessarily need a storefront to succeed anymore, but does need a robust supply chain strategy.
Big-box omnichannel retailers, e-commerce companies, and third-party logistic companies (3PLs) that support e-commerce and fulfillment functions are among the top companies are aggressively expanding their supply-chain networks, he continues.

Demand for new space by Amazon exceeded that of all other e-commerce tenants put together, representing up to 50 percent of new market activity, says Miami-based Walter Byrd, executive managing director for industrial services at real estate services firm Transwestern.
Amazon reported a 13 percent increase in second quarter sales, compared to the first quarter, and a 40 percent increase in sales year-over-year. In a conference call with analysts, Amazon CFO Brian Olsavsky said that Amazon plans to continue its aggressive physical expansion, growing its network’s footprint by 50 percent in the last two quarters of the year. Amazon’s overall network of facilities, which only grew by 15 percent last year, includes the company’s fulfillment and distribution centers, offices, grocery stores and other physical properties.
According to Pete Quinn, national director, industrial services-USA, at Colliers International, other companies aggressively expanding their logistics networks, include: Quiet Logistics, Boeing, Grainger, DHL, Geodis, Target, HD Supply, Walmart, Lowes, Fedex, Pepsico and Frito Lay.
Both Lowe’s and Home Deport are aggressively expanding their footprints to improve online sales fulfillment and delivery capabilities. Last month, Lowe’s announced plans to add 50 cross-dock terminals, seven bulk distribution centers and four e-commerce fulfillment centers over the next 18 months. As part of a $1.7-billion investment in the company’s distribution network, Lowe’s opened more than 13 industrial facilities across 13 U.S. markets over the past 18 months.
Home Depot is investing $1.2 billion to overhaul its supply chain, adding 170 new warehouses nationwide and 100 local hubs to handle large items, including furniture and appliances, reports the Wall Street Journal. The goal is to expand same-day and next-day delivery capabilities to 90 percent of the U.S. population.
Industrial leasing by food and beverage companies doubled in the second quarter to 11.4 million sq. ft., representing about 20 percent of the nearly 56 million sq. ft. of total space leased year-to-date, as grocery sales shifted to the online marketplace.
Target experienced a 195 percent increase in digital sales in the second quarter, 90 percent of which were handled by stores. In the wake of the pandemic-induced online sales boom, Target announced plans to expand its online grocery service and is testing a new sort center concept to better facilitate efficient last-mile delivery, reported Progressive Grocer. These sort centers would remove parcel sorting from stores, facilitate expansion of grocery offerings, enable higher throughput of e-commerce packages and more efficient shipping to lower costs per order. Target also plans to open new warehouses near key markets, including New York and Southern California, to more efficiently replenish stores in high-volume areas.
Additionally, 3PLs that serve e-commerce retailers, such as Fedex and DHL, are also expanding their logistics network to meet increasing demand by clients. El Segundo, Calif.-based 3PL Central, a warehouse management systems leader, shared data on its customer base with Logistics Management. This data indicated that 3PL e-commerce shippers experienced an 81 percent increase in order volume during the lockdown. Since 3PL Central processes more than 1 million orders per week, Patrick Burnson, executive editor of Logistics Management, suggests that these shippers provide a barometer for growth in the 3PL warehousing market.
With growing demand in already tight industrial markets, national vacancy is near record low levels at 5.5 percent, despite a high volume of new product deliveries. A total of 78.5 million sq. ft. of new industrial space was delivered nationwide in the second quarter—one of the highest quarters to date, with the Dallas/Fort Worth, Chicago and Houston markets accounting for 29 percent of total supply added, according to the second quarter of 2020 industrial report from real estate services firm JLL.
Source: “Amazon, Big-Box Chains, 3PLs Among the Most Rapidly Expanding Industrial Tenants”

Filed Under: COVID-19

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