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Archives for August 2021

Are Production Studios About to Become a Major CRE Asset Class?

August 4, 2021 by CARNM

Major investors are pouring more and more money into these assets.

On July 29, Blackstone and Hudson Pacific Properties announced plans to invest $170 to $190 million to develop a 240,000-sq.-ft. production studio on the edge of Los Angeles, a 20-minute drive north of Hollywood in Sun Valley. The property, dubbed Sunset Glenoaks Studios, will be the first new large-scale production studio facility built in the Los Angeles area in over 20 years.

Just three days later, news broke that Blackstone and Hudson Pacific also plan to build a studio production complex outside London. The two acquired a 91-acre property for £120 million and expect investment for the development to total over £700 million. The development is the first addition outside the U.S. under their growing joint venture, Sunset Studios.

The two properties are the latest in a wave of studio deals by big-name real estate investors that continues to grow, even as more traditional asset classes begin to recover from the disruption of 2020. As of June, more than 1.2 million sq. ft. of new sound stage space was being planned or built in greater Los Angeles, according to real estate services firm CBRE. This represents major growth in new development relative to the region’s existing 5.3 million sq. ft. of sound stages, as tracked by FilmLA.

The surge in studio investments is tied to the rapidly rising demand for streaming content on platforms like Netflix and Amazon Prime. The boom has seen the entertainment industry scrambling to find enough production space to produce new content and demand has only continued to soar as viewers spend more time at home during the COVID-19 pandemic.

“Right now anything that can be labeled a studio is in demand—even substandard converted warehouses—but the focus is on creating sound stages and studio lots that meet today’s standards for filming,” says Billy Sherman, managing director with real estate investment banking firm Eastdil Secured. “The analogy is that studios and sound stages are highly specialized manufacturing facilities for filmed content. The better the manufacturing facility, the better the end product, so every entertainment company is seeking access to what is a limited number of high quality studios.”

California-based Relativity Architects reports that around half of the properties where the firm is now designing studios were previously set to become warehouses.

The wave of new development is driven by the fact that sound stage inventory has remained relatively static while spending on original content production has doubled in the last few years, according to Sherman.

The demand for new development is also tied to very low vacancy rates for industrial space.

“Industrial space historically provided a relief valve to production spaces when traditional stages weren’t available,” says Craig Peters, executive vice president at CBRE. “With virtually no industrial space available in major markets and those landlords with vacancy looking for long-term leases, that isn’t a good match for excess production demand.”

This shortage of flexible industrial space is one of the factors pushing investor demand for warehouses that can be permanently converted to studios.

But demand for production studios was already growing before the COVID-19 pandemic. L.A. North Studios, now one of the region’s bigger players, was founded in 2018 and Netflix purchased Albuquerque Studios in New Mexico that same year. Even as most asset classes struggled through 2020, announcements of new production studio deals continued.

“This is actually an old industry, but it’s in the middle of a major disruption with the launch of the digital platforms and the continued rise in subscription services,” says Jesse Goepel, managing director with investment management firm Square Mile Capital.

In January, Square Mile worked with Hackman Capital, the region’s largest independent owner of production space, on the purchase of the Sony Pictures Animation campus for $160 million—Hackman has built a portfolio of $3.8 billion in studio and media investments in just the past three years. The Sony Pictures deal was the start of a string of new studio investments through the first half of 2021.

In April, Atlanta’s Blackhall Studios, one of Georgia’s largest production companies, was bought by private equity firm Commonwealth Group for $120 million. Blackhall owns 850,000 sq. ft. of space and nine sound stages in the state, as well as studios in Los Angeles and London.

In May, Atlas Capital Group proposed a $650 million plan to redevelop a property in downtown Los Angeles which the firm already owned into a 832,000-sq.-ft. campus with 300,000 sq. ft. of production space. Atlas Capital’s plan for 8th and Alameda Studios will convert the building where the Los Angeles Times is currently printed into 11 new sound stages, and will also create new facilities with six additional sound stages.

The same month, Bardas Investment Group and Bain Capital announced the $450 million Echelon Studios project, a redevelopment of a former Sears store in West Hollywood that will include five sound stages totaling more than 90,000 sq. ft.

Good timing

The new Blackstone-Hudson Pacific development in Los Angeles will bring the Sunset Studios portfolio for the area to 42 stages and studio properties covering 3.5 million sq. ft. This will include an expansion of Sunset Gower Studios, announced last November, that will double the size of the facilities with 480,000 additional sq. ft. and two new soundstages. After the first quarter of 2021, Hudson Pacific reported a 5.9 percent increase in year-over-year net operating income for the Sunset Gower, Bronson and Las Palmas studio facilities.

The drive for new studio development is now also backed by the California government. In mid-July, the state legislature approved a new $150-million tax credit for sound stage construction, as well as a $180-million increase to the $330-million film production credit.

One beneficiary of the new credits is the Blackstone-Hudson Pacific Sunset Glenoaks project, which includes seven new sound stages. Though the plan was originally proposed seven years ago, it will now benefit from the state’s expanded tax incentives.

According to CBRE, demand in the sector falls into three categories: investors developing purpose-built studios, studio operators looking to convert existing properties and private or institutional investors seeking to acquire existing studios.

One new redevelopment project is a plan announced in June by New York-based East End Capital to build out a cold storage warehouse in Los Angeles’ Boyle Heights and convert it into a 237,000-sq.-ft. production studio facility with four sound stages.

Studio soundstages can often bring in revenue for investors much faster than other types of developments; in prime locations in Los Angeles, rents for regular office space might average around $2.25 per sq. ft., while studio space will lease for as much as $5.0 per sq. ft.

How much growth is possible?

But despite the attractive revenue prospects and the bullish market, there is still an inherent limit to production studios as an investment opportunity. The most successful properties must be located in major markets with an entertainment industry, including specialized skilled labor, and ideally tax incentives as well.

As more capital has poured into the sector, interest rates for studios have dropped, with cap rates coming into line with those for best-in-class investments from other asset classes, reportedly in the mid-3 percent range.

“Institutional capital has always loved industrial real estate and today that demand is pushing cap rates to record lows and resulting in record high prices,” says Craig Peters, of CBRE. “Many of those same institutional investors are also looking at the studio space today and including it in their portfolio.”

According to Goepel, the asset class may face a ceiling because of the broadening demand among investors.

“There is a limited stock of existing assets, but we are seeing a lot of development activity, so I think the future development will really be the determinant of how big this sector gets,” Goepel notes. “Not all projects that are announced in the press are actually capitalized or entitled, so not everything we hear about will be built. But we will certainly see this sector continue to grow and we believe there is still a lot of runway with the content providers as it’s all about production these days and demand for high quality production space is as robust as it has ever been.”

As more investors become comfortable with studio assets, some in the industry expect the sector’s fundamentals will likely start to look more like traditional real estate classes, for example industrial or multifamily.

“With more capital chasing a limited number of opportunities that is driving down cost of capital and return targets. Also, with production studios being an operating business in addition to real estate, most players are seeking to build scale,” says Sherman. “More scale creates operating efficiencies and pricing leverage with customers.”

In addition, some of the major real estate players investing in studios—including Hackman, Blackstone and Hudson Pacific—may focus on longer holding periods. This is driven in part by demand within the entertainment production industry for increasingly long leases, sometimes for years at a time.

So far, production studios are on track to become a regular part of commercial real estate portfolios. According to CBRE, investors can expect an announcement of another new major studio development in the next 60 to 90 days that will be larger than the Sunset Glenoaks Studios project, as well as significant news around studio sales.

Source: “Are Production Studios About to Become a Major CRE Asset Class?“

Filed Under: All News

August 2021 CCIM Deal Making Session Properties

August 4, 2021 by CARNM

Thank you to all of the brokers, sponsors, and guests who attended the August 2021 CCIM NM Deal Making Session & Forum and to those who shared their properties.

Click here to view source PDF.

Click here to view the Thank Yous.

 

Name

Property, City Type Price
1. Mark Thompson CCIM 252-258 Mills Avenue, Las Vegas Retail $579,900
2. Kate Potter 5203 Juan Tabo, Suite 2D, Albuquerque

 

Office $186,420
3. Kate Potter 5921 Lomas Blvd NE, Albuquerque Office $240,000
4.

 

Randy McMillan SIOR

Jacob Slavec SIOR

Jake Redfearn

 

Copper Point, Albuquerque Investment See advisor
5.

 

Austin Tidwell

Daniel Kearney

 

3880 Menaul Blvd NE, Albuquerque Industrial $1,395,000

Filed Under: All News, Meetings

Surviving Volatility

August 3, 2021 by CARNM

The coronavirus pandemic turned the world upside down, so CRE professionals will need creative options when it comes to renegotiating leases.

Disruptions happen all the time. The next one is sure to come — what remains unknown is what form it will take and when. The COVID-19 pandemic, for instance, is a black swan event that could take a century of hindsight to put it into proper context by the type and scope of its impact. While this latest disruption is unlike previous systemic volatility, like the Great Recession, commercial real estate professionals need to adapt to the changes resulting from this most recent disruption.

One such change requires that industry pros hone their abilities to prepare for the widespread lease renegotiations in the coming months and years. Leases tend to be long-term contracts in CRE, extending three, five, 10, or 20 years into the future. In that time, businesses will change, and the economy will have its ups and downs. When a tenant and landlord sign a lease, there is typically an anticipation that the market and use of the space will continue uninterrupted throughout the term of the agreement. While early termination clauses are not uncommon in the office sector, the cancellation fees can be hefty.

In the wake of the pandemic, tenants and landlords/owners are renegotiating and modifying leases every day. Pinterest, as an example, recently cancelled a lease for 490,000 sf of office space in San Francisco that included total rent payments of $440 million. The cost to walk away from that deal was an astonishing $89.5 million. Why would a lessee pay that much to buy its way out of a deal? Risk.

Risk also explains why significant amounts of subleased office space has been hitting the market. Some tenants, seeing the volatility of 2020 and the near future, hope to minimize costs and recoup some revenue from their decreased need for real estate.

Volatility

The commercial real estate market remains volatile, even if we all hope the worst of COVID-19 is behind us. Considering such uncertainty, plenty of tenants and landlord/owners will be faced with the prospect of subleases and buyouts in the coming months and years. Here’s a quick rundown of many of the considerations that go into lease modifications.

Seeking a Sublease

At its most basic, a sublease is an exit strategy for the tenant. By signing an agreement for another user to take their place in the premises, the original tenant becomes the primary tenant, and the new renter is the subtenant. The subtenant occupies the space and pays all or a portion of the rent owed under the original lease agreement, but the primary tenant is still on the hook financially and legally, with all rights flowing through the primary tenant.

Every situation is unique, but many tenants consider subleasing for a few common reasons:

  • Need more space. If a client has outgrown their space, they will need to relocate to accommodate a growing business with greater needs. In this case, a sublease can cover all or a portion of the existing location.
  • Need less space. A business headed in a smaller, leaner direction could also benefit from a sublease. Think of an office building in April 2020 — the business may have required every employee to work for home for months or longer, so 10,000 or 20,000 sf of office space is no longer a necessity.
  • Things change. A tenant may look to sublease if their business model has changed significantly. Think of Walmart as an example. When these stores started to include groceries, their footprints greatly increased, leading to the spread of Supercenters. Walmart subleased many Division 1 stores to smaller retailers while they looked at larger facilities.
  • Costs need to be cut. Some businesses may have to sublease some or all their space to stay afloat during difficult economic times.
  • The space is obsolete. A tenant may look to sublease if a space or building is obsolete due to changing technology or business needs.

To pursue a sublease, a tenant must first make sure the landlord is properly notified. Language in the lease should detail what this entails — whether the landlord needs to give permission in writing or other parameters are established. The tenant or user of the space also needs to consider who profits from the lease in the event the sublease rent is above the contract rent. Will that go to the tenant or landlord? Conversely, if there is a reduction in rental income, how will the primary tenant account for the difference?

Volatility2

But other issues in the real estate market may complicate the subleasing process. You may not be able to find a new tenant for a space. Imagine if you were looking to sublease a boutique retail property in May 2020, for example, amid COVID-19 shutdowns.

To see how this plays out, let’s look at a case where a tenant was able to sublease a property for less than the existing lease. How would you determine the value of that sublease in today’s dollars?

In this case, there are eight years left on a lease that’s $50,000 per year. The sublease agreement is for $45,000 a year. Assuming the primary tenant’s discount rate is 10 percent, the difference in present value of the two leases equals negative $26,675. This total is crucial when considering if a sublease is the correct path forward.

Talking About a Buyout

If a sublease doesn’t make sense, a buyout could be another exit strategy for tenants. A more drastic move in some ways, a buyout can give a landlord/owner a chance to possibly lease at a higher rate, thereby increasing their building value, while tenants can exit leases that have become burdensome.

Prime candidates for buyouts include big-box stores that have closed permanently, such as JCPenney, Sears, and Kmart. Other situations could include a retailer moving from brick-and-mortar to online sales. H&M, for instance, has closed a significant number of stores as it emphasizes e-commerce.

Looking at a second case study, imagine the tenant owes the landlord $1 million over five years. From the perspective of the tenant, who desires to exit the property, if the landlord could lease the space to another occupant for $150,000 a year, that is a shortfall of $50,000 a year or $205,010 in today’s money when discounted at 7 percent. But from the landlord’s perspective, the tenant owes them $1 million. Even if the landlord agreed to discount the remaining rent owed at the same discount rate of 7 percent, they would be owed $820,039 today.

By comparing these two figures, you’ve established a negotiating range. In determining what to accept on a buyout, the landlord must consider multiple variables.

  • What additional value might come from a stronger tenant?
  • How long might the space be vacant?
  • Can the property be repositioned with a different user?

Additionally, if the property is leased for $150,000 per year, instead of $200,000, the net operating income is reduced by $50,000 per year. This shortfall could cause problems if the landlord has a loan with a debt-service coverage ratio and loan-to-value ratio requirement. Most loans have covenants that require certain benchmarks throughout the term of the loan. If these aren’t met, a default or capital call may occur.

The volatility across commercial real estate markets doesn’t appear to be going away soon. Reworking leases, subleasing, and buyouts are skills that many CRE professionals need to have in their toolboxes. Knowing the goals of all involved parties — including tenants, landlords, owners, and other parties, including financing — will help you advise clients when deciding the best course of action as the industry enters a post-COVID world.

Source: “Surviving Volatility“

Filed Under: All News

A Resurgence For “Made In America”

August 3, 2021 by CARNM

Numerous factors point to a renaissance for U.S. manufacturing

Due to a variety of changing dynamics worldwide, manufacturing in the U.S. appears ready for a renaissance. In fact, “The rate of reshoring and incremental foreign direct investment (FDI) has grown from 6,000 jobs/year in 2010 to 160,000 in 2020”, according to Harry Moser, Founder and President of the Reshoring Initiative®.

That is good news for the U.S., as manufacturing has the highest multiplier effect of any sector in the U.S. economy and brings along many other benefits as well. It is estimated that every $1 in manufacturing adds nearly $3 to the economy and that for every 1 new manufacturing job, 5 jobs are created elsewhere up and down stream.(1)

What is driving this resurgence in “Made in America”? Here are five underlying factors to consider:

  1. Risk mitigation – Companies are rethinking their global manufacturing and/or sourcing strategies. Global complexities create more time in transit and greater risk for supply chains. Meanwhile, threats and the fallout from natural disasters like fires, floods and earthquakes have left more and more companies thinking twice about the supposed advantages of producing products half-way around the world.
  2. Self-reliance – The federal government and its citizens do not want to be reliant on other countries for needed supplies, medical equipment, drugs, or protective equipment when the next pandemic or disaster strikes…and it will. As much as 50% of pharmaceutical active ingredients critical to our healthcare are produced in China.(2) Semiconductors are critical to the manufacturing of computers, mobile phones, automobiles and robotics, to name a small list. Today, approximately 45% of all computer chips are manufactured in Taiwan or China.(3)
  3. Military defense – Sophisticated military ships, vehicles, aircraft and other weaponry are highly reliant on semiconductors, as well as rare earth minerals being mined and processed mostly outside the United States. The highly advanced F-35 Lightning, an all-weather, stealth, combat aircraft contains 920 pounds of rare-earth materials. A Virginia-class submarine requires 9,200 pounds of the same.(4) Today, approximately 90% of rare earth materials are mined and/or processed outside of the U.S.(5)
  4. Consumer sentiment – Consumers all over the world love buying American made products. “Made in the U.S.A.” has brand power and there is a renewed emphasis on U.S. sourcing and manufacturing by such companies as Walmart. The company recently pledged to invest $350 billion over the next 10 years in products made, grown or assembled domestically. “U.S. manufacturing really matters,” said John Furner, CEO of Walmart U.S. in March 2021.
  5. Sustainability – Sourcing products closer to consumption can have a significant impact on sustainability initiatives as well as reduce transit times when speed to customer matters. Transportation related emissions — from trucks, cars, planes and ships — account for approximately 33% of global greenhouse-gas emissions.(6) Also, the actual manufacturing process can be more polluting offshore. For example, electricity production in China is much more dependent on coal, which is extremely detrimental to the environment. Improvements to a company’s supply chain network can have a big impact on its sustainability goals. The trend now is to have more facilities closer to the customer.

Companies that got caught up in the “offshoring” craze of the 80’s and 90’s, which gave rise to manufacturing in developing countries, especially China, are now evaluating shifting some, or all of, those sourcing operations back to the U.S. The rising cost of Chinese labor has had a negative influence on the offshoring value proposition, with average manufacturing wages in China rising nearly 61% between 2014 and 2019.(7)

Transportation is an increasingly important factor. The higher the cost of transportation, the more significant the freight “penalty” becomes to ship over greater distances. Freight costs are increasingly offsetting, even eclipsing, savings from cheaper labor. As transportation costs continue to rise, sustainability goals gain in importance, and speed-to-market becomes the competitive differentiator, companies will be incentivized to produce and source products as close to the final consumer as possible. The longer distances required to move product creates additional complexity as well as risk.

The demand for manufacturing-related facilities has soared 93% year-over-year

In a recent demand study on industrial real estate – manufacturing plants, distribution centers, warehouses – our Research Team indicated the demand for manufacturing-related facilities soared 93% year-over-year in 2021.(8) Companies are finding that by making sourcing decisions based on “Total Cost of Ownership”, instead of just piece price, a significant percentage of what is now imported can be reshored profitably. Working in partnership with the Reshoring Initiative®, we can provide useful tools for making this analysis.

The fundamentals are excellent for the growth of American manufacturing. A well-educated work force, strong (and improving) logistics infrastructure, low energy rates, growing economy, stable political environment, close proximity to the world’s largest consumer base and increasing governmental and corporate appreciation of the value and feasibility of U.S. self-sufficiency are necessary fundamentals.

When it comes to supply chain network strategy—in part, how many manufacturing and distribution facilities a company should have and where they should be located— companies must ultimately make decisions that pin their strategy to the ground. Having a globally optimized supply chain network is critical to operational success and achieving sustainable competitive advantage.

Our original 2011 paper, “Made in America,” stated that U.S. manufacturing made good business sense. The 25x increase in the rate of reshoring and foreign direct investment since that time further validates our statement. Here we are 10 years later in 2021. We confidently project a further strengthening of U.S. manufacturing over the next 10 years.

Footnotes/Sources:

(1) National Association of Manufacturers and Manufacturing Alliance for Productivity and Innovation.
(2) https://glginsights.com/articles/chinas-role-in-global-generic-pharmaceutical-supply-chain/ and https://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/Priest%20US-China%20Commission%20Statement.pdf
(3) WSJ https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-fewer-chips-say-made-in-the-u-s-a-11604411810.
(4) U.S. Department of Defense report
(5) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rare-earth_element
(6) Union of Concerned Scientists
(7) TradingEconomics.com and the National Bureau of Statistics China.
(8) JLL Industrial Demand Study, May 2021

Source: “A Resurgence For “Made In America””

Filed Under: All News

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